The Seahawks emerge as the Super Bowl favorite with a 58% projection, while the Patriots enter a new era with a 20.6% chance to win it all. Super Bowl probabilities for all four remaining NFL teams Seattle Seahawks find themselves in pole position: The Seahawks are projected to go to the Super Bowl 58% of the time. A new era for the New England Patriots: The Patriots have a 20.6% chance to win the Super Bowl. 2026 NFL Draft season is here: Try the best-in-class PFF Mock Draft Simulator and learn about 2026’s top prospects while trading and drafting for your favorite NFL team. 🏈 Draft Season 2026 Prepare for the 2026 NFL Draft with PFF+ Your complete draft preparation toolkit Subscribe Team Power ranking Strength of schedule to date Chance to win conference (%) Chance to win Super Bowl (%) Seattle Seahawks 1 19 57.6 30.3 Denver Broncos 13 8 56.0 27.2 Los Angeles Rams 2 21 42.4 21.9 New England Patriots 5 32 44.0 20.6 Seattle Seahawks: 30% to win Super Bowl & 58% to win conference The Seattle Seahawks are projected to go to the Super Bowl 58% of the time. The Seahawks have a 30.3% chance to win the Super Bowl. They are the first-ranked team in the PFF Power Rankings. Denver Broncos: 27% to win Super Bowl & 56% to win conference The Denver Broncos are projected to go to the Super Bowl 56% of the time. The Broncos have a 27.2% chance to win the Super Bowl. They have played the eighth-hardest schedule to date. Los Angeles Rams: 22% to win Super Bowl & 42% to win conference The Los Angeles Rams are the second-ranked team in the PFF Power Rankings. The Rams have a 21.9% chance to win the Super Bowl. They are projected to go to the Super Bowl 42% of the time. New England Patriots: 21% to win Super Bowl & 44% to win conference The New England Patriots are projected to go to the Super Bowl 44% of the time. The Patriots have a 20.6% chance to win the Super Bowl. They are the fifth-ranked team in the PFF Power Rankings.
Super Bowl probabilities for all four remaining NFL teams
PFF grades: Three unheralded defenders lead Rams to playoff win
The Los Angeles Rams eliminated the Chicago Bears in a closely fought NFC divisional round game. LA finished on top 20-17. The effort required contributions from outside the usual suspects, and the Pro Football Focus (PFF) game grades and data support this. Let’s dive in. Top five grades on offense 1 – Kevin Dotson, RG: […] The Los Angeles Rams eliminated the Chicago Bears in a closely fought NFC divisional round game. LA finished on top 20-17. The effort required contributions from outside the usual suspects, and the Pro Football Focus (PFF) game grades and data support this. Let’s dive in. Top five grades on offense 1 – Kevin Dotson, RG: 91.3 In his first game back from injury Dotson allowed only a single pressure in pass protection. He was by far LA’s highest graded player in run blocking at 93.5. The next closest was WR Konata Mumpfield at 77.0. Dotson proved important in his first game back and gave the Rams a much needed boost on the ground. 2 – Tyler Higbee, TE: 79.2 Higbee played only eight snaps. He ran routes on every play and was not asked to stay in to block, interestingly enough. The veteran was targeted one time and converted into a 27-yard reception. 3 – Alaric Jackson, LT: 71.9 Jackson ranked second on the team in pass protection (77.5) to LG Steve Avila (81.6). Jackson fared better in the run game and thus finished better overall. Still, outside of Dotson and Coleman Shelton, there wasn’t much to like from the starting five in terms of run blocking. 4 – Kyren Williams, RB: 70.5 Kyren Williams gained 87 yards and two touchdowns on 21 carries. 54 of these yards came after contact and Williams forced three missed tackles. He earned two carries of over ten yards. As a receiver he added four receptions on five targets for 30 yards. It was one of the most productive receiving games that we’ve seen from Williams in a while, and the Rams’ passing production was mostly limited to the short game. One complaint: Williams earned a pass blocking grade of just 48.0 compared to Blake Corum at 65.8. This could explain why Corum played on the final offensive possession in overtime over Williams. 5 – Puka Nacua, WR: 69.6 This was far from Nacua’s most productive game. He caught just five of 10 targets for 56 yards after only converting 10 of 16 opportunities a week ago. Defenses know that the Rams offense runs through Nacua and they are seemingly doing everything they can to take LA’s weapon away. Other notes on offense Matthew Stafford finished with the Rams’ lowest grade on offense at 42.2. He fumbled twice and earned a grade in this facet of 24.5. Stafford tossed the same number of big-time throws and turnover-worthy plays at three, meaning he was fortunate to finish the game without a turnover. The veteran finished with an adjusted completion rate of just 52.6%. Rams receivers were not credited with any dropped passes. Top five grades on defense 1 – Kamren Curl, DB: 91.7 Curl was active as a pass rusher on two blitzes. He earned one pressure. The safety was active around the line of scrimmage and finished with 10 total tackles and only a single miss. His coverage production was the most impressive. Curl allowed only three catches on five targets for 17 yards with an interception and a PBU. The interception stopped Chicago’s momentum in overtime and setup the Rams’ game-winning field goal by Harrison Mevis. 2 – Kamren Kinchens, DB: 90.4 LA’s other safety was also active. Kinchens finished with six tackles and did not miss an attempt. His coverage was also stellar with a grade of 87.9 (second to Curl) and allowed two receptions on four targets for 10 yards with a PBU. 3 – Omar Speights, MLB: 90.1 Maybe the highest impact defensive performance on the night belongs to second-year linebacker Omar Speights. Speights was active in coverage (third on defense) with two PBU’s. Caleb Williams made an amazing throw to score their first touchdown to DJ Moore. Speights was inches away from an interception or breakup. Speights also could have caught a pick-six with Chicago on the goal line on fourth down, but the linebacker collided with Nate Landman. 4 – Desjuan Johnson, EDGE: 77.9 These were the EDGE snap counts for the game: Jared Verse: 61 Byron Young: 35 Josaiah Stewart: 45 Desjuan Johnson: 20 Nick Hampton: 10 It’s interesting that the Rams put Stewart, a rookie, on the field more often than Young. LA deployed a high number of five-men fronts to slow the Bears’ running game. Maybe the Rams felt Stewart is better in run defense. Johnson excels in run defense and earned the highest grade for the Rams on Sunday night (82.2). Stewart was fourth at 73.8. 5 – Tyler Davis, DT: 77.2 Davis ranked just behind Stewart for fifth on the defense in run stopping at 73.2. He even surpassed Poona Ford in this facet. Ford leads the Rams most games. Davis played 30 snaps with 21 coming against the run. That’s a man who knows his role. Other notes on defense Jared Verse finished with a grade of just 33.2. His best mark came as a pass rusher at 56.7 and five total pressures (led the defense and tied with Kobie Turner). Verse missed six tackles (!) which was good for two-thirds of his attempts. PFF gave him a tackling grade of 23.2. His run defense grade was also poor at 44.4 as he broke contain on multiple outside runs and scrambles.
Bengals Tuesday Trenches: History repeating itself?
First. The difference between the standard of football in Buffalo, Pittsburgh, and Baltimore—and the standard of football in Cincinnati—is absurd. Every team with an elite quarterback (with the exception of the Chiefs) whose season fell short—whether in the playoffs or the regular season—made changes at head coach. The Ravens fired John Harbaugh, who is now […] First. The difference between the standard of football in Buffalo, Pittsburgh, and Baltimore—and the standard of football in Cincinnati—is absurd. Every team with an elite quarterback (with the exception of the Chiefs) whose season fell short—whether in the playoffs or the regular season—made changes at head coach. The Ravens fired John Harbaugh, who is now with the Giants. The Bills fired Sean McDermott after being eliminated in the divisional round by the Broncos. Even Mike Tomlin and the Steelers parted ways. The Bengals, meanwhile, missed the playoffs three seasons in a row and didn’t fire a single coach. No adjustments. Nada. Zip. Zilch. Half the franchises in the league—if they had Joe Burrow, Ja’Marr Chase, and Tee Higgins on the roster—would’ve fired Zac Taylor after the 2024 disaster. All of them would’ve done it after 2025. Duke Tobin, too. So yeah, the standard here is lower. Sucks, but it is what it is. Second. The Bengals are currently stuck in a cycle we’ve now seen play out three times, with three different quarterbacks and two head coaches. Let me explain. Carson Palmer was drafted in 2003. In 2003, 2004, and 2005, his cap hit was relatively small—3.3% in ’03 and 9.5% in ’05—and during that span the Bengals averaged a 9–7 record. After his first big extension, his cap share jumped to roughly 12%. From 2006 through 2010, the Bengals averaged a record of 6–10. Palmer got paid, and—outside of the 2009 season—the Bengals forgot how to win. Then came Andy Dalton in 2011. As a second-round pick under the new CBA rookie wage scale, Dalton’s cap hit never reached Palmer levels, but the pattern still showed itself. From 2011 through 2015, Dalton’s cap share averaged about 3.2%. During that stretch, the Bengals enjoyed an unprecedented run of regular-season success, making the playoffs five straight years with an average record around 10–6. Then Dalton got paid. Even though his cap share only peaked at 9.4%, the results changed. Over the next four seasons, the Bengals’ average record dropped to 5–11. And then Joe Burrow arrived—and the cycle reset. From 2020 through 2022, Burrow’s cap share averaged just over 4%. In that time, the Bengals reached a Super Bowl and two AFC Championship games. Since then, his cap share has jumped to an average of 12.2%, and the Bengals have missed the playoffs three straight seasons. Burrow is due 15.7% of the cap this season. Combined with Chase and Higgins, those three will account for more than a third of the team’s cap space. I’m not saying they shouldn’t have re-signed all of them. I’m saying it would’ve been nice if those contracts were structured like they were signed with a pen, not a quill and parchment. And I’m also saying that if history really does repeat itself, the Bengals are going to be fighting an uphill battle just to make the playoffs with their quarterback taking up that much of the pie. They couldn’t figure it out with Palmer. They couldn’t figure it out with Dalton. Are we confident they can with Burrow? There’s no doubt he’s the most capable of the three. He’s more physically gifted than Dalton, more cerebral than Palmer, and more athletic than both. If there’s a quarterback who can do it, it’s him. Unfortunately, it feels like the Bengals are going to act more like a lead weight around his ankle than a flotation device. Can he overcome it? We’ll see. Random thoughts: I feel bad for the Bills. If it couldn’t be the Bengals, I wanted it to be Buffalo or Detroit. I lived in Buffalo for a bit, and it reminded me a lot of Cincinnati—at least the people did. Not the weather. Two Buffalo winters was one too many. Denver losing Bo Nix at the very end of that game was brutal. I feel for Broncos fans. It’s not fair that the Patriots got Tom Brady and Bill Belichick, and now they’re back in the AFC Championship just a few years later with a new quarterback and head coach. They should’ve suffered longer. Same goes for the Packers. Brett Favre, Aaron Rodgers, and now Jordan Love—back to back to back? Come on. The Bengals need to re-sign Dalton Risner. I’ll say it until they do. Despite the Bengals missing the playoffs, this postseason has featured some of the best games I can remember. Hopefully, we’ll be watching the Bengals in mid-January of 2027. Who Dey! Now you swear and kick and beg us that you’re not a gamblin’ man Then you find you’re back in Vegas with a handle in your hand Your black cards can make you money so you hide them when you’re able In the land of milk and honey, you must put them on the table See More: Cincinnati Bengals Analysis
Playoff lessons: Klint Kubiak next Las Vegas Raiders head coach? Broncos’ playoff run Nix-ed?
One of the perks that Tom Brady enjoys as Las Vegas Raiders minority owner? His gig with Fox Sports affords him the opportunity to broadcast and watch postseason games. And, as the Silver & Black continues its hunt for a head coach, Brady got a bird’s eye view of one of the candidates the team […] One of the perks that Tom Brady enjoys as Las Vegas Raiders minority owner? His gig with Fox Sports affords him the opportunity to broadcast and watch postseason games. And, as the Silver & Black continues its hunt for a head coach, Brady got a bird’s eye view of one of the candidates the team has shown interest in: Seattle Seahawks offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak. And hearing Brady’s impressed exclamation combined with a chuckle after running back Kenneth Walker III galloped in for a seven-yard touchdown just before halftime to boost the Seahawks commanding lead to 24-6 was likely the same reaction folk who like Kubiak as candidate to captain the Raiders. Seattle’s 41-6 victory over the San Francisco 49ers was an exhibition in ground & pound as Kubiak put the Seahawks’ offense on Walker’s capable shoulders and the tailback produced 145 total yards and three touchdowns. One has to wonder if Kubiak — the architect of Seattle’s third-ranked scoring offense and eighth-ranked offense in yards gained — is indeed a prime candidate for Las Vegas’ opening or if he’s just merely a name on the Raiders’ list? And vice versa, is Kubiak seriously considering the Silver & Black’s head gig or just going through the process? Kubiak wasn’t the lone member of his family tree to have an interview with Las Vegas, his brother Klay — the 49ers offensive coordinator — spoke with the team on Sunday. The Raiders also had an interview with Buffalo Bills offensive coordinator Joe Brady on the same day. Brady and general manager John Spytek are engaging in a deliberate process to land a new head coach but expect the Raiders’ list to whittle down this coming week as the playoffs moves into the AFC and NFC Championship tilts. And if Klint Kubiak is a serious contender, Las Vegas’ wait could be prolonged depending on how far the Seahawks advance. Playoff Hopes Nix-ed? The AFC West-champion Denver Broncos’ truly rode the highs and lows of a dramatic 33-30 overtime win over the Buffalo Bills on Saturday. The team’s exhilaration of advancing to the AFC title game received a sudden gut punch when head coach Sean Payton walked up to the postgame podium and announced quarterback Bo Nix suffered a season-ending ankle fracture. I cannot lie: When the news hit social media, I thought it was accounts being hacked. But seeing Payton’s face and hearing his voice in the press conference after the game was a reminder of the sobering reality of the game of football at times. Denver now turns to backup Jarrett Stidham as QB1 and the 29-year-old draws quite the matchup with the New England Patriots — the team that drafted him in the fourth round (133rd overall) of the 2019 NFL Draft. Payton’s play-call acumen is going to be thoroughly tested by Terrell Williams’ New England defense, a group that intercepted Houston Texans quarterback C.J. Stroud four times on Saturday. The Broncos need Nik Bonitto and the other pass rushers to get to Patriots quarterback Drake Maye — sacked five times and fumbling four times (losing two) — by the Texans stout defense. Las Vegas is likely to use the No. 1 overall pick in the 2026 draft on a quarterback — presumably Indiana’s Fernando Mendoza if he declares. So that’s a potential answer for QB1. But what about QB2? Let’s assume Mendoza is the pick, the Raiders do have Geno Smith and Aidan O’Connell under contract. It’s difficult to see Smith remaining now that Pete Carroll is no longer employed by the team. And with O’Connell likely to remain with his relatively cheap $3.73-plus million cap number, Las Vegas would have an experienced option who can either start or serve as the backup. The Call Was it a catch by Buffalo Bills wide receiver Brandin Cooks or an interception by Broncos safety Ja’Quan McMillian? The NFL ruled it was a takeaway and after watching it over and over, I can’t definitively say one way or another. How about you? Yet, that play — whether you deem it conventional or controversial — belabors the point that the Raiders rebuild not only requires a quarterback but also defense, and special teams. Las Vegas needs an infusion of talent on the defensive side of the ball this offseason whether via free agency or the draft. First comes head coach, then coaching staff decisions and pivotal roster moves, but whether the defensive coordinator is Patrick Graham again or someone else, Spytek will have heavy lifting to do this offseason to provide quality ingredients so the coaching staff can cook. A disciplined defense that can take the ball away helps alleviate struggles at the quarterback position — as the Patriots-Texans game showed us. New England combined spending coin in free agency with the 2025 draft picks to strengthen the defense. With ample salary space and draft picks this coming April, Las Vegas is in a good position to do the same — if Spytek is on his game and bold enough to do so, instead of bargain bin shopping and penny pinching this past offseason. —Brady was enamored by Ben Johnson as a coaching candidate for the Raiders. Instead, Johnson is became the Bears boss and led the team to the NFC divisional clash where his team fell to the Los Angeles Rams 20-17 in overtime. Can Brady deliver in this current Raiders search or once again be simply used as leverage? —The divisional round was rough for some quarterbacks and the touchdown to interceptions thrown — 13 to 12 — was razor thin. In terms of pass protection, Maye getting dropped five times was the most followed
Vikings Part Ways with Chris Kuper: Flores Future & Coaching Candidates
In this episode of The Real Forno Show, hosted by Tyler Forness with producer Dave Stefano on Vikings 1st & SKOL, the duo dissects the Minnesota Vikings’ offseason moves amid the NFL coaching carousel. Forness highlights the team’s decision not to retain offensive line coach Chris Kuper, noting, “They’re not renewing his contract… I think […] In this episode of The Real Forno Show, hosted by Tyler Forness with producer Dave Stefano on Vikings 1st & SKOL, the duo dissects the Minnesota Vikings’ offseason moves amid the NFL coaching carousel. Forness highlights the team’s decision not to retain offensive line coach Chris Kuper, noting, “They’re not renewing his contract… I think both [positives and question marks] can be true at the same time.” They analyze OL performance data from PFF, revealing starters allowed pressures every 31.5 snaps versus backups’ 24.75, and discuss quarterback responsibility for sacks, with Forness stating, “Quarterbacks were responsible for 18 of those 60 sacks.” Stefano adds context on potential replacements, emphasizing scheme fits like wide-zone experts. The Vikings still face significant defensive staff uncertainty in the 2026 offseason, as Brian Flores’ contract has expired, leaving him a free agent able to pursue head coaching opportunities (with interviews ongoing for teams like the Steelers, Ravens, and others) or even lateral DC moves, though the team remains confident he’ll return unless a head role materializes. Adding to the concern, Vikings defensive backs coach and pass game coordinator Daronte Jones—a rising star who has contributed heavily to Minnesota’s elite defense—is drawing strong interest for DC positions, with interviews already conducted or requested by the Cowboys, Jets, Giants, and Packers. Should Jones depart, the Vikings would need contingencies to preserve their aggressive scheme, potentially turning to experienced options like Raheem Morris (a former head coach with prior ties to Kevin O’Connell from their Rams days) or Jonathan Gannon (ex-Cardinals HC and former Vikings assistant under Mike Zimmer, with proven play-calling success). Securing continuity on this high-performing unit remains a top priority early in the offseason. Brian Flores’ uncertain future, and NFL coaching ripple effects on this must-listen episode. Key points include: Kuper’s Exit and OL Analysis: Injuries led to backups playing 1,658 snaps; starters had low sack allowances (10 of 60 total), but stunts and consistency were issues. Replacement Candidates: Names like Dwayne Ledford, Bill Callahan, Frank Smith, Butch Barry, Pat Meyer, and Zak Kromer discussed, with Forness sharing a “hot board” from A to Z Sports that include Kieth Carter, Kevin Carberry, Chris Watt, Ramon Chinyoung, Steve Oliver, Jahri Evans, and Justin Outten. Brian Flores and Staff Uncertainty: Flores lacks a contract; potential DC interviews for Daronte Jones could force contingencies like Raheem Morris or Jonathan Gannon. Broader Carousel Impacts: Stefanski’s Falcons hire might retain Kirk Cousins; other moves affect QB market and Vikings’ defense. Offseason Priorities: Focus on depth over starters; draft class weaknesses at center/tackle noted, with Forness warning, “This offensive line draft class is bad.” Listen: Watch: Whether you’re tracking Vikings news, NFL coaching changes, or offseason strategies, The Real Forno Show delivers expert insights and unfiltered takes for Minnesota Vikings fans. Catch it on Vikings 1st & SKOL’s YouTube or podcast feeds for more episodes, including upcoming SKOL Search breakdowns on wide receivers and linebackers. Fan With Us!!! Tyler Forness @TheRealForno of Vikings 1st & SKOL @Vikings1stSKOL and A to Z Sports @AtoZSportsNFL, with Dave Stefano @Luft_Krigare producing this Vikings 1st & SKOL production, the @RealFornoShow. Podcasts partnered with Fans First Sports Network @FansFirstSN. Question: What do you think the Vikings’ biggest coaching priority should be this offseason—OL fixes or Flores retention? Share in the comments! See More:
Small insight as to why the Detroit Lions didn’t hire Mike McDaniel
With the announcement that the Detroit Lions are reportedly hiring Drew Petzing as their newest offensive coordinator came a bunch of reactions from fans and analysts alike. One of the more popular reactions was frustration that the Lions didn’t land former Dolphins head coach Mike McDaniel, a candidate widely believed to be the best offensive […] With the announcement that the Detroit Lions are reportedly hiring Drew Petzing as their newest offensive coordinator came a bunch of reactions from fans and analysts alike. One of the more popular reactions was frustration that the Lions didn’t land former Dolphins head coach Mike McDaniel, a candidate widely believed to be the best offensive mind available this coaching cycle. McDaniel was a candidate for the Lions’ job and interviewed for the position last Tuesday. Why didn’t the Lions choose him? We don’t have 100 percent clarity on that yet, but ESPN reporter Jeff Darlington provided some insight into Detroit’s thought process with McDaniel. “Of coordinator jobs that Mike McDaniel has interviewed for, the Lions gig was the least likely to materialize,” Darlington tweeted on Monday. “Campbell liked McDaniel a lot, but Lions didn’t view it as quite the right fit for them.” Now, let’s be clear about this quote, because I’ve already seen some potential misinterpretations of this. That last sentence has some believing that Campbell wanted him, but he was overridden by others within the organization. I can see why that’s a possible read on the situation, but I think Campbell could be included in the “Lions” that didn’t view him as a fit. You can like a candidate while also admitting he’s not exactly what you’re looking for. Jumping to the conclusion that Campbell didn’t get his guy because of Brad Holmes, or Sheila Hamp, or Mike Disner is making a huge leap in logic. What would be more interesting to find out is why the organization didn’t like McDaniel’s fit. There is certainly a perception that McDaniel’s offense is a little more gadgety and based on speed, where the Lions have shown they like physicality and power. Personally, I think McDaniel has shown some of those gritty football tendencies when the personnel is right. Maybe the personality fit wasn’t right. Maybe McDaniel doesn’t see play-calling the way Campbell wants him to. Maybe the connection with Jared Goff wasn’t ideal. Maybe there was just going to be too much schematic and verbiage overhaul when the Lions are looking for more of a tweak. Whatever the reason, one thing appears clear from Darlington’s reporting: the Lions rejected McDaniel rather than the other way around. See More:
Breaking down Lions OC Drew Petzing’s 3 seasons as Cardinals OC
With reports that former Arizona Cardinals offensive coordinator Drew Petzing is being hired as the next Detroit Lions offensive coordinator, everyone is scrambling to dig into Petzing’s past to analyze the decision. We’re no different here at Pride of Detroit. But while Petzing’s coaching career spans well over a decade, in this piece, we’re just […] With reports that former Arizona Cardinals offensive coordinator Drew Petzing is being hired as the next Detroit Lions offensive coordinator, everyone is scrambling to dig into Petzing’s past to analyze the decision. We’re no different here at Pride of Detroit. But while Petzing’s coaching career spans well over a decade, in this piece, we’re just going to focus on his last three years with the Cardinals as their play-caller. We’re going to look at what he did well, what he struggled with, any sort of other factors that may have impacted the Cardinals’ offensive output, and then relate it all back to what the Lions like to do on offense. So let’s dig into the last three years of Petzing’s offenses. 2023 Overall stats: 24th in points per game 21st in offensive DVOA 22nd in EPA/play 25th in success rate Passing stats: 29th in yards per attempt 23rd in pass DVOA 27th in dropback EPA 27th in dropback success rate Rushing stats: 2nd in yards per carry 9th in rush DVOA 7th in rush EPA 12th in rush success rate Key offensive injuries: QB Kyler Murray (9 games missed) WR Hollywood Brown (3 games missed) WR Michael Wilson (4 games missed) RB James Conner (5 games missed) TE Zach Ertz (10 games missed) While the Cardinals didn’t put up a ton of points in Petzing’s first season as offensive coordinator, there were certainly some positive signs. Led by a relatively healthy offensive line, the Cardinals produced a top-10 rushing offense in just about every significant statistical category, and it wasn’t overly reliant on the mobility of quarterbacks Kyler Murray and Joshua Dobbs. Despite missing five games, James Conner had the most efficient season of his career, rushing for 1,040 yards (sixth in the NFL), seven rushing touchdowns (16th), and 5.0 yards per carry (fifth). The passing game obviously suffered from a ton of injuries. Foremost was Murray missing the first nine games of the season. He struggled upon his return, although it’s worth noting he finished the season strong, throwing for six touchdowns, one interception, and a collective 108.3 passer rating in his final three games under the new offense. Also worth noting, with Zach Ertz out for most of the season, this was Trey McBride’s breakout season in his second year in the NFL. After posting just 29 catches for 265 yards his rookie season, McBride jumped to 81 catches for 825 yards in Petzing’s first year as offensive coordinator. 2024 Overall stats: 12th in points per game 11th in offensive DVOA 10th in EPA/play 10th in success rate Passing stats: 16th in yards per attempt 13th in pass DVOA 13th in dropback EPA 6th in dropback success rate Rushing stats: 3rd in yards per carry 9th in rush DVOA 8th in rush EPA 10th in rush success rate Key offensive injuries: RT Jonah Williams (11 games missed) RG Will Hernandez (12 games missed) Despite the right side of their offensive line being depleted for most of the season, Petzing produced a borderline top-10 offense in the NFL. It was another dominant season on the ground, with Conner finishing 11th in rushing yards (1,094) and 16th in rushing touchdowns (eighth). More importantly, the passing offense took a pretty huge jump with Murray playing all 17 games. Sacks were down, efficiency was up, and it’s fair to credit Petzing with a lot of those improvements. His heavy reliance on play-action helped elevate the team’s overall efficiency in a big way. On play-action passes in 2024, Murray ranked: Second in attempts (159 — behind only Jared Goff) Eighth in EPA (+32.8%) 13th in EPA/dropback (+0.18) 16th in passer rating (104.0) First-round pick Marvin Harrison Jr. had an up-and-down rookie season, but still finished with a respectable 62 catches for 885 yards and eight touchdowns, while McBride posted another incredible season, totaling 111 catches for 1,146 yards. Petzing also found a way to get Conner involved, posting his best receiving stats since his rookie year: 47 catches for 414 yards—the sixth-best production from any running back that year. 2025 Overall stats: 23rd in points per game 24th in offensive DVOA 23rd in EPA/play 24th in success rate Passing stats: 22nd in yards per attempt 24th in pass DVOA 20th in dropback EPA 19th in dropback success rate Rushing stats: 19th in yards per carry 28th in rush DVOA 29th in rush EPA 28th in rush success rate 2025 Arizona Cardinals key offensive injuries: QB Kyler Murray (12 games missed) RB James Conner (14 games missed) RB Trey Benson (13 games missed) RB Zonovan Knight (5 games missed) TE Tip Reiman (13 games missed) WR Marvin Harrison Jr. (5 games missed) WR Greg Dortch (5 games missed) WR Zay Jones (9 games missed) LT Paris Johnson Jr. (5 games missed) LG Evan Brown (6 games missed) RG Will Hernandez (10 games missed) RT Jonah Williams (8 games missed) Dear God. Unsurprisingly, after reading that list, the Cardinals were the most-injured team in 2025 per several metrics, and they really felt it on offense. Four of five starters missed at least five games this season, with two missing half the season. The running back room was absolutely devastated. Not a single running back had more than 100 rushing attempts in the season, but five different backs had at least 29 rushes. The passing game was obviously impacted by Murray’s injury, a thinned receiving corps, and an offensive line decimated by injury. Naturally, everything fell apart. The team became extremely imbalanced, finishing the season with the most passing attempts in the NFL and the fewest rushing attempts. The offensive line—which finished 26th in PFF ranking after ranking 16th
Grading the Detroit Lions’ hiring of OC Drew Petzing
On Monday, the Detroit Lions shocked a lot of people by reportedly agreeing to make former Cardinals offensive coordinator Drew Petzing their new offensive coordinator. Now, part of the shock was that there hadn’t been any connection made public between Petzing and the Lions. There were seven other known candidates at the time, and so […] On Monday, the Detroit Lions shocked a lot of people by reportedly agreeing to make former Cardinals offensive coordinator Drew Petzing their new offensive coordinator. Now, part of the shock was that there hadn’t been any connection made public between Petzing and the Lions. There were seven other known candidates at the time, and so Petzing was completely off most people’s radar. But according to Dave Birkett, the Lions did plenty of research on Petzing behind the scenes. They reportedly interviewed him last week, and even had him talk ball with quarterback Jared Goff over the weekend. But it’s fair to say some of the reaction was because many believed the Lions had the kind of attractive job opening that could lure a coordinator candidate with a better and more proven resume. Now, immediate backlash is to be expected when a candidate comes out of nowhere. But with nearly 24 hours to research the guy, looking at some expert opinions on the hire, and considering the fit, it’s time to give a more measured reaction. Today’s Question of the Day is: What grade do you give the Lions’ hiring of Drew Petzing as OC? My answer: Admittedly, I’m still doing a lot of research and have a bigger piece breaking down Petzing’s three years as Cardinals offensive coordinator coming later on Tuesday morning. But let me give a quick breakdown of what I do and don’t like. One of my biggest concerns with this hire was how the Lions were going to give the offense a fresh look without doing a complete overhaul or trying to make Jared Goff someone he is not. This hire seems to fit that concern like a glove. Petzing’s reputation is that of a coach who values the under-center run game with heavy personnel, and a myriad of good schematic tricks to create good matchups. If you watched Detroit’s run game in 2025—and, subsequently, the Bears’ run game—you could see how Detroit was missing Ben Johnson in that aspect. Throw in a heavy reliance on play-action in the passing game, and the philosophical fit seems perfect. Yet, because Petzing has never worked with Dan Campbell and his only connection to the Lions is a stint with Hank Fraley in Minnesota and a personal relationship with Ben Johnson, he’s going to bring some much-needed fresh perspective to the offense, as well. I like that he did create a borderline top-10 offense in 2024 with a mediocre-at-best quarterback and a skill position group that was still very young and developing, including rookie Marvin Harrison Jr., second-year receiver Michael Wilson, and third-year stud tight end Trey McBride. To take that young set of players and produce some impressive numbers is a very good sign. What I don’t like? Well, the 2025 season was a complete mess. Injuries certainly played a huge part, because… well, just look at this: But it’s still extremely disheartening to see the run game completely fall off, ranking bottom five in many categories. Additionally, I’m a little concerned about the situational play-calling. Here’s how the Cardinals ranked in fourth-down conversion rate in each of his seasons: 2023: 44.1% (27th) 2024: 44.4% (28th) 2025: 42.9% (29th) To be fair, though, he was actually pretty darn good on third down every season. 2023: 39.1% (14th) 2024:43.0% (eighth) 2025: 41.5% (ninth) Finally, there’s the “bigger fish” argument. While I don’t think there was any perfect candidates out there—Mike McDaniel, the favorite of many, also saw his offense fall off a cliff in the past two seasons (partially because of injury)—it does feel weird that the Lions were one of the first teams to pull the trigger on a guy who hasn’t created much buzz for the other vacancies. That doesn’t mean he wasn’t in demand or didn’t interview anywhere else—we’ll see as more information becomes public—but it’s clear most analysts saw better candidates for Detroit. Put that all together, and this feels like a B or B- overall. I see the vision, there’s proof of concept in that 2024 season, but some serious concerns about Petzing are more than just knee-jerk reactions. What grade do you give the hiring and why? Scroll down to the comment section and let us know why! POLL: See More:
2026 NFL Draft scouting report – Malachi Fields, WR, Notre Dame
The class of wide receivers in the 2026 NFL Draft is an interesting one. That’s potentially good news for the New York Giants, who likely need to add at least one impact receiver this year. There are, of course, talented players at the top of the class who will get plenty of discussion over the course of the process. There’s also a sizeable “middle class” of receivers who could be valuable pieces to the right team as rotational or role players. That’s where Notre Dame receiver Malachi Fields comes in. Fields is a big, powerful receiver with a skill set that allows him to help a team without the ball in his hands. Could that make him a value piece for the receiver-needy Giants? Prospect: Malachi Fields (0)Games Watched: vs. Miami (2025) vs. Texas A&M (2025), vs. Arkansas (2025)Red Flags: Foot (broken bone, 2022) Measurables Height: 6-foot-4 (unofficial)Weight: 222 pounds (unofficial) Strengths Best traits Size Play strength Blocking Catch radius Malachi Fields is a big, powerful receiver prospect. He has a prototypical frame for an outside receiver at 6-foot-4, 222 pounds and appears to have long arms to fit his height. Fields typically shows a solid understanding of his role within the offense and knows how to run his routes to find voids in coverage or use his frame to create traffic if he isn’t the primary receiver in a route concept. He also has a clear understanding of how to use his size and power to his advantage as a receiver. He’s able to play through contact and is also able to extend and high-point the ball. Fields has solid ball skills, locating and tracking the ball in the air and has enough body control to adjust and make tough catches. Fields is also a willing and competitive blocker. His size allows him to overwhelm defensive backs on the perimeter and even lose slowly against off-ball linebackers in condensed formations. He typically blocks with good technique and shows solid competitive toughness in sustaining his blocks. Weaknesses Worst traits Long speed Agility Explosiveness Fields’ greatest weakness is an overall lack of athleticism. He has adequate short-area quickness to get into his breaks, but lacks explosiveness out of his breaks or agility when changing direction. He also isn’t particularly fast over a distance and labors somewhat as a runner. As a result, he struggles to generate separation, even if initially beating a corner, and needs to rely on his size to make contested catches. Likewise, while he can find voids in zone coverage, he’s slower to exploit them and they can shrink by the time he gets there. Game Tape (Fields is the Notre Dame receiver wearing number 0) Projection Malachi Fields projects as a useful rotational piece for an offense that uses a high rate of screen passes and runs, and is also in need of a possession receiver. Fields has the potential to be a reliable depth player on offense as well as a consistent presence on special teams. He might not have the consistent Big Play threat to have universal appeal, but he should have good value to the right team on Day 3. Does he fit the Giants? Yes, as a depth piece and special teams contributor. Final Word: A good Day 3 Value See More: New York Giants Draft
Ranking the highest-graded rookies from the divisional round
PFF grades every player on every play, and these are the top rookies from the divisional round. Ranking the highest-graded rookies from the divisional round Craig Woodson played a major part in C.J. Stroud‘s poor day: He broke up two passes across three targets and also picked off a second-quarter throw, making him the week’s only rookie with a 90.0-plus PFF game grade. Grey Zabel is heating up at the right time: He is the ninth-highest-graded guard since Week 14 (80.6 PFF overall grade), powered by the fourth-best PFF run-blocking grade in that span (82.8). 2026 NFL Draft season is here: Try the best-in-class PFF Mock Draft Simulator and learn about 2026’s top prospects while trading and drafting for your favorite NFL team. Estimated Reading Time: 11minutes We’re diving into the top rookies by PFF overall grade from the divisional round. To qualify, players needed to have logged at least 25 snaps. 🏈 Draft Season 2026 Prepare for the 2026 NFL Draft with PFF+ Your complete draft preparation toolkit Subscribe 1. S Craig Woodson, New England Patriots (90.3) Woodson was sticky in coverage against the Texans, breaking up two passes across three targets and also picking off a second-quarter throw that bounced off Xavier Hutchinson’s hands. Woodson earned the third-best PFF coverage grade among the position in the divisional round (85.1). He also recorded a quarterback hit as a pass rusher and two tackles in run defense, leading him to grade out as the third-best safety this weekend (90.3). The fourth-round pick from California enters the AFC title game against the Broncos as the second-highest-graded safety this postseason (90.1). Woodson leads all safeties in PFF run-defense grade (87.6), having recorded four tackles with five assists and a run stop. His 15.2% positively graded play rate is second best at the position, while his 3.0% negative play rate ranks third. Meanwhile, Woodson has been the second-best coverage safety during New England’s playoff run (81.2), holding receivers to 16 yards — the second fewest among qualifying safeties — on two catches across seven targets. He is also limiting quarterbacks to a league-best 0.0 NFL passer rating when targeted. Open Woodson’s Profile 2. G Grey Zabel, Seattle Seahawks (80.4) San Francisco had no answer for Zabel’s run blocking. The first-rounder recorded a position-best 30.3% impact-block rate in the divisional round, mostly in zone blocking schemes (23 snaps), where he earned the third-best PFF run-blocking grade (77.6). He was equally strong in gap schemes, finishing with a 74.6 PFF run-blocking grade (fourth best). Overall, Zabel logged the fourth-highest PFF run-blocking grade among guards in the divisional round, in addition to the fourth-lowest defeated rate (21.2%). Zabel did surrender a quarterback pressure in pass protection, leading to a 62.6 PFF pass-blocking grade, but he still graded out as the second-best guard over the weekend in his postseason debut. Zabel enters the NFC Championship game against the rival Rams having played the most snaps among rookie guards this season (1,055). He endured an up-and-down regular season (59.5 PFF overall grade), as he was beaten 23 times in pass protection (tied for sixth most among starting guards) and earned 58.8 PFF grades in both facets. Things have been trending upward for the 18th overall pick from North Dakota State, though. He is the ninth-highest-graded guard since Week 14 (80.6 PFF overall grade), powered by the fourth-best PFF run-blocking grade in that span (82.8). His surrendered pressure against the 49ers in the divisional round is the only one he’s allowed in his past three games. 3. RB RJ Harvey, Denver Broncos (71.0) Harvey rushed six times for 20 yards against the Bills, with a long of 12 yards in the second quarter. He also secured each of his five targets for 46 receiving yards. His biggest play came in overtime as he broke multiple tackles for a 24-yard reception to move Denver near midfield on what became the game-winning drive. He forced seven total missed tackles and logged the fifth-best PFF receiving grade among running backs (74.9) in the divisional round. The second-round pick from Central Florida has racked up 400-plus yards as a rusher and receiver this season. Harvey, who took over as the starting back after J.K. Dobbins suffered a season-ending foot injury in November, has 152 carries for 560 yards and seven touchdowns this season. He logged the third-most rushing touchdowns (tied) among rookie running backs, in addition to 28 first downs, 407 yards after contact and 27 forced missed tackles. Harvey has made a big impact in the passing game, where he’s caught 52 passes for 402 yards to lead the draft class. He also paces the class in receiving touchdowns (five), first downs (19) and catches of 15-plus yards (six) while ranking second in missed tackles forced (15) and passer rating when targeted (120.6). His 70.4 PFF receiving grade ranks fourth among first-year backs. 4. G Jared Wilson, New England Patriots (69.1) Wilson had one of his best games of the season, grading out as the fifth-best guard this weekend after his performance against the Texans. Wilson surrendered two hurries in pass protection but still garnered a 76.9 PFF pass-blocking grade (fifth best). He also generated the sixth-best impact-block rate as a run blocker (22.6%) on his way to a 64.1 PFF run-blocking grade. The third-round pick from Georgia has gone through growing pains in his first season, as he enters the AFC Championship game with a 52.9 PFF overall grade — the lowest mark among New England’s starting offensive linemen. Wilson has surrendered 36 pressures at a 6.8% clip, with 13 combined sacks and hits. Despite his high impact-block rate in the run game against the Texans, Wilson still holds a 9.6% clip and a 16.6% defeated rate for the season. 5. RB Kyle Monangai, Chicago Bears (68.9) Chicago’s season came to an end after an overtime loss to the Rams. Monangai ripped off a 15-yard run late in the first quarter to move the Bears to the Rams’ nine-yard line, but he finished the game
