Photo by Scott Taetsch/Getty Images 100% accurate ranking of all 32 teams. The 2024 NFL season is HERE! And that means it’s time for an incredibly meaningful and serious exercise: NFL Power Rankings! What differentiates these rankings from all the others is that they’re THE only truly accurate ones in the entire universe. We use a proprietary system that heavily accounts for vibes. Let’s take a look at how all 32 teams stack up. BLG’S WEEK 1 NFL POWER RANKINGS 1 – Kansas City Chiefs – Patrick Mahomes is inevitable. I genuinely believe the Chiefs are going to threepeat as Super Bowl champions. It’s very hard to do, yeah, but if there’s anyone who could … it’s him. Along with the support of Andy Reid and their other core championship pieces. 2 – Green Bay Packers – The Packers finished the season red hot. Jordan Love started to look scarily similar to Aaron Rodgers. This is a young team that’s ready to take a major step forward under a coach who’s averaged 11.8 wins per season. 3 – Detroit Lions – We’ve reached a strange point in time where the Lions have staying power but they have a talented roster and a strong coaching staff. Their offense simply cooks and that’s pretty important in today’s NFL. 4 – Baltimore Ravens – Can’t wait for another season of “OMGGGG LAMAR IS UNSTOPPABLE” before he unsurprisingly flames out in the playoffs once again. Legitimately great *regular season* team, though. Updated Lamar Jackson playoff numbers: 2-4 starting record, 9 total TD, 9 total giveaways, 76.1 passer rating Ravens average points scored in his starts: 16. 3 losses came with home field advantage. 1 win came with no fans in stands (COVID year). — Brandon Lee Gowton (@BrandonGowton) January 29, 2024 5 – Houston Texans – I’m wary of a sophomore slump here since it’s possible the Texans might get too high on their own supply. But C.J. Stroud’s rookie success was historically impressive and it’s not difficult to buy DeMeco Ryans as a good head coach. Not to mention they have a very attainable path to winning their division. 6 – San Francisco 49ers – We just saw the Eagles deal with the crushing weight of expectations after losing the Super Bowl last year. The 49ers are in that unenviable position once again here. Their vibes seem to be shifting for the better with Brandon Aiyuk and Trent Williams coming back from holdouts. And they’re still really talented. But it’s possible they’re on the decline. 7 – Philadelphia Eagles – Allow me to make a case that people are putting too much weight on last year’s collapse. In 2011, there was a lot of talk about how the Eagles could carry the positive momentum of finishing the season strong to be good in 2012. That clearly did not happen. And so it’s not a foregone conclusion that because the Eagles were bad late last year means they can’t have success this season. Jalen Hurts is coming off his best training camp, the team is healthy, there’s reason to be optimistic about new coordinators, the schedule is relatively favorable, and the vibes seem to be good. Oh, and no team ever repeats as NFC East champions, so, the Eagles are obviously in line to win the division. 8 – Buffalo Bills – The Bills were a bit better than their record indicated last season. But it was a bit of a weird offseason for them. Josh Allen has the ability to carry his team … but does he have enough help? 9 – Cincinnati Bengals – Hard to know what to exactly make of Joe Burrow at this point in time. If he’s truly healthy, look out. If not, the Bengals could be a middling squad. 10 – New York Jets – The Jets’ vibes are not great. But it’s possible that people are underrating Aaron Rodgers’ ability to still play the game at a very high level. And even if he gets hurt again, Tyrod Taylor helps raise their floor from where it was last year. 11 – Miami Dolphins – No one is taking the Dolphins seriously. They’re not bad but they’re not actually scaring anybody. They’ve taken on the perception of their quarterback in that way. 12 – Dallas Cowboys – The Cowboys’ vibes are atrocious: Mike McCarthy on the hot seat, unhappy star players, no major offseason upgrades, Jerry Jones constantly sticking his foot in his mouth, etc. Dallas does win a lot of regular season games. But you can set your watch to them disappointing in the playoffs, assuming they make it there. Will be interesting to see which team Dak Prescott plays for next year. Dak Prescott is now 2-5 in 7 career playoff games. Out of 169 playoff QBs with at least one win, only 7 have a worse winning percentage. Dak’s 2 wins? 18-15 combined opponent record, lowest win percentage in playoff wins among 109 QBs to win multiple games. Yikes. — Brandon Lee Gowton (@BrandonGowton) January 15, 2024 13 – Los Angeles Rams – The Rams are a high floor team. Losing Aaron Donald does impact their ceiling. 14 – Chicago Bears – I’m bullish on the Bears as a wild card contender. Despite finishing 9th in the draft order, they were tied (with a 9-8 Indy team) for the 13th-worst point differential. They also ranked 11th worst in DVOA. They were a little better than their record indicated. Merely getting rid of Justin Fields, who is terrible and contributed a ton of negative plays, is addition by subtraction. Replacing him with Caleb Williams is a huge boon to the offense. Da Bears will be a much more credible team this season. 15 – Los Angeles Chargers – Looking at Justin Hebert’s supporting cast is not making me feel great about being relatively high on the Chargers. But I find it hard not to believe in Jim Harbaugh, who simply wins wherever he goes.
NFL Power Rankings: Week 1 Edition
Eagles Mailbag: The Jalens need to be top dawgs
Photo by Perry Knotts/Getty Images The vibes are good Before we get to your questions, let’s see your answer to my question: I am a little surprised by this, I thought the results would be more of a mixed bag. I put myself in the middle, I expect this team to make the playoffs but also wouldn’t be totally shocked if the season comes undone. Case in point: New article on ESPN of Hurts saying his learning was “halted.” Reading the article, who specifically told him to not worry about protections and how did that affect his play last season? – kjb304 ICYMI: “I think in the end when you look at this upcoming season and what you have seen in years past, it’s just different autonomy in different places,” Hurts told 94.1 WIP on Thursday. “We had a great player in Jason Kelce who took on a lot of responsibility, and as a result of that I was told not to worry about a lot of things. And so my eagerness to learn over the years kind of was halted because of who we had, but now times are different and I’m excited for that journey and this opportunity.” “It’s been a role that I’ve been waiting on,” Hurts said. “I know we’ve had a well-respected, Hall of Fame guy who’s been doing that, and now we [have] the opportunity to do that. It’s something I’ve been wanting, and I think that’s how it’s supposed to be.” Everything falls on the head coach. But it’s hard to fault the Eagles for the way they have handled this particular part of Hurt’s development. There’s no reason to put protection calls on a young QB’s plate when he has a Hall of Fame center. Now that Jason Kelce is retired, and Hurts has experience, giving Hurts control is a natural progression. This shouldn’t be a thing, but Hurts went and made it a minor one. Add it to the small but growing pile of quotes (about Brian Johnson, about Kellen Moore’s playbook) that show that not all is well between Jalen Hurts and Nick Sirianni. If this team starts off poorly it will get ugly. Eagles took a big leap of faith in drafting Georgia Bulldogs. It’s now time to see that pay off. What can we expect? – BroadSt.Bulldogs It wasn’t a leap of faith to draft Georgia players from a defense that won back to back national titles. That was a generational defense. In their first title game, in their front seven they played nine blue chip players: 5 star recruits Travon Walker, Quay Walker, Jalen Carter, Nolan Smith, and Channing Tidall, and 4 stars Devonte Wyatt, Zion Logue, Julian Rochester, and Robert Beal. Nine blue chips is a top 20 recruiting class on its own. But yes, it is time for their potential to turn into reality… if they get a chance. Most of the Philadelphia Bulldogs are backups. -Jalen Carter looked really good until the wheels completely fell off the entire team last year, not going to knock him for that. I’m not concerned about him. -Jordan Davis has to show that he can last a whole season. Training camp was encouraging but that was August, the worry for him is November and beyond. He has yet to have a sack, tackle for loss, or QB hit after October. -Nolan Smith will get playing time if he deserves it. Vic Fangio will rotate players and will make major in-season changes, so early playing time for anyone shouldn’t be read into too much, but his playing time vs Jalyx Hunt will show just how much the coaching staff thinks of him. He might be the second guy off the bench. -Nakobe Dean has to show that he wasn’t a product of playing behind a Georgia line that was two deep in first round picks. I’m not letting his late surge in camp and preseason fool me, I need to see it on the field in games that matter. With Owen Burks on the 53 man roster now is Dean even LB3? -Kelee Ringo was such a galaxy brain pick/trade. Outside of the 1st round or early 2nd round, where you’re grabbing premium prospects at premium positions, trading up is a bad move. If a player you have a 2nd round grade on is available in the 4th round, you haven’t outsmarted the league by trading a 3rd rounder to select him. Barring injury he won’t get much of a chance to show his worth. Last year Ringo was 6th in snaps played by an Eagles CB. This year he should be…. 5th. Why would Howie sign Oren Burks before game 1? Couldn’t he just used a Week 1 call up from the practice squad and then sign him. Then his yearly salary wouldn’t have been guaranteed, correct? By the time Week 8 gets here, who knows where Oren will be in regards to the teams plan. – FIJoe My guess is they promised him he would get called up to the 53 when someone got hurt, and then James Bradberry immediately got hurt. Hard to see another team wanting Burks on their 53 since he just returned from injury, and the only other team to sign a LB to their 53 after cuts were the Cardinals, who promoted Krys Barnes, who played for them last year, from their PS. His salary will now be guaranteed, but it’s league minimum, so that is not a big concern. But this was a dumb process. All of this could have been avoided if they just swallowed their pride and cut Bradberry, who wasn’t going to start and since he can’t play special teams probably would have been inactive on Friday. We all know that Laekin Vakalahi is going to become the second coming of Jordan Mailata. Can International Exempt players be poached? – Mailata_in_a_Miata The bonus is simply an extra practice squad roster spot, so yes he can be poached
PFF makes ‘bold prediction’ for Rams ahead of primetime opener
Photo by Dustin Satloff/Getty Images Outlet projects Rams to field a top-3 offense this season The Los Angeles Rams are back in game mode with the Detroit Lions coming up on Sunday Night Football. Regardless of how that game plays out between two expected NFC powers, LA is likely to pick up right where they left off on offense in 2024. PFF writer Trevor Sikkema anticipates the Rams will put up the points and then some this season as he boldly predicted Sean McVay’s squad will field a top-3 offense: “Is this prediction a bit ambiguous? Yes; it could be true in multiple categories. The Rams fielded a top-10 offense in several categories last season: PFF overall grades, scoring offense and EPA per play, for example. Matthew Stafford is capable of playing at an elite level (we saw it many times last season), the run game is strong and the Rams will hopefully have Cooper Kupp paired with Puka Nacua for even more games this year. The defense may be another story, but stopping the Rams’ offense every week is going to be one of the more difficult challenges in the league.” It’s not crazy at all to think the Rams are going to be awesome on offense yet again this season. Last season, Los Angeles finished eighth in scoring (23.8 points per game) and seventh in total yards (359.3/game). Not to mention, the team also saw Matthew Stafford selected to his second-ever Pro Bowl with Kyren Williams and Puka Nacua named to the second-team All-Pro squad. Nacua set all sorts of rookie receiving marks and Williams led the NFL in rushing yards per game. (Suck on that Christian McCaffrey!) Kyren Williams led the league with the avg of 95.3 rushing yards per game. What a spectacular breakout season for the St. Louis native Williams was certainly a major catalyst for the Rams 2023-24 playoff push. McVay ran offenses are at their best with a strong running game pic.twitter.com/xmPPoofeD2 — RAMS ON FILM (@RamsOnFilm) March 3, 2024 The cherry on top of Stafford and those All-Pros is rookie running back Blake Corum and 2021 Offensive Player of the Year Cooper Kupp. Corum is coming off a season in which he helped lead Michigan to a national championship and is sure to become a two-headed monster in the ground game with Williams. Kupp has missed time since his dominant Super Bowl campaign and is creeping up there in age. While he might be nudged out of the WR1 spot in favor of Puka, he could regain his pre-injury 2022 form. All the pieces are set for the Rams to have a high-powered offensive attack this upcoming season. I can’t say this enough but the offense should pick up exactly where they left off. This team is in good hands given McVay’s reputation as a winner since his hiring in 2017. Sean McVay’s #Rams since 2017: T-5th in Wins5th in PPG9th in OPP PPG10th in TDs They are fifth in wins despite having a nightmare 5-12 season in 2022. Only the Chiefs, Ravens, Saints and Bills have more wins. They are tied with the Steelers with 70 wins in their last 115… pic.twitter.com/1f3nM3HFY5 — JAKE ELLENBOGEN (@JKBOGEN) September 2, 2024
Brandon Stephens on Ravens secondary: ‘The sky is the limit’
Brandon Stephens on Ravens secondary: ‘The sky is the limit’ Kevin Oestreicher The Baltimore Ravens have an extremely talented secondary that should pave the way to another great defensive year for the team. With players such as Kyle Hamilton, Marlon Humphrey, Marcus Williams and others, there’s plenty of potential for the group to excel once again this season. Another member of the Baltimore secondary in cornerback Brandon Stephens gave his opinion on the team’s depth at the position, and had good things to say. He mentioned how while they do have a deep secondary, that doesn’t mean that fact alone will get the job done for a group that he says the sky is the limit for. “We definitely have depth, like you said. But, just because we have depth doesn’t mean that’s going to get the job done, so we know that we still have to go out [and] attack each day and take what’s ours. The sky is the limit for us, and we know that, but we just [have] to continue to work and work as a unit.” The Ravens have historically worked through a massive amount of secondary injuries, so having depth at the position is a must. Stephens understands that having a deep secondary is valuable, but they need to also get the job done and play to their skills in order to have a successful season.
Tuesday Trenches: The end of summer, and bold predictions
Sam Greene/The Enquirer / USA TODAY NETWORK It’s the deep breath before the plunge. It’s game week. We made it. The 2024 NFL regular season kicks off in just two days, and just three days after that, the Cincinnati Bengals will open the season against the New England Patriots at home. The Bengals have done everything they could do except extend Ja’Marr Chase, of course. Hopefully, he’s extended sometime between when you’re done reading this sentence and Sunday morning, and if he’s not, hopefully, he plays. They addressed needs along the defensive line, at right tackle, in the secondary, at tight end, and wide receiver. There were no significant needs they didn’t address. All they can do now is hope the ball bounces their way and there aren’t any significant injuries. That’s all they can do at this point. Hope. Labor Day was Monday, and that day always signifies the end of summer to me. When I was a kid, it meant I was back at school in full swing, the swimming pools closed, the temperatures were going to start dropping, and football season was here. Though summer officially lasts until September 22nd, Labor Day has always felt like the real farewell to the season. And now Labor Day marks the end of the time for talk for the Bengals and the beginning of the time for action. Everything, or at least most things, is stacked in their favor. Their schedule is easier this season. At least half of the quarterbacks they face this year aren’t great or are inexperienced. Joe Burrow seems to be fully healthy and just completed his first-ever full training camp. They have a real shot. They’re one of the few teams who can call themselves real Super Bowl contenders. They’ve done all they can. Labor Day is over. Banners have been called, and the legions have assembled. As Ol’ Billy Shakespeare once said, “Cry ‘Havoc!’ and let slip the dogs of war.” Now then, on to Bold Predictions: The Cincinnati Bengals will win Super Bowl LIX That’s the big one. Too many individual storylines line up. Joe Burrow seems ready to rock and roll from Week 1 and is fully healthy. Of course anything can change, injuries are out of the team’s hands. If the main characters stay healthy, especially Burrow, the Bengals win the Super Bowl. I mentioned a bunch of reasons why. They’ve addressed all their needs. The Super Bowl is being played at the Superdome in New Orleans, where Burrow and Chase won their National Championship game against Clemson, and it’ll be in LSU’s back yard. The story is already written. Hopefully we get to just sit back and enjoy it now. Joe Burrow will win NFL MVP Burrow is one of a handful of guys on the short list for MVP this year. Patrick Mahomes and Lamar Jackson are as well. Of the three, Burrow has the best offense around him, though. If the Bengals get what they hoped they could out of their rookie defensive tackles, if Myles Murphy or Joseph Ossai make a leap, and if the secondary is shored up with the new additions of Geno Stone and Bell, the defense could be a top unit as well. I know that’s a lot of ifs, and we’re not talking about Joe Burrow, but all of this affects him. The more the Bengals take off his shoulders, the more he can just do his thing, and if he spends his entire season healthy doing his thing, he’ll win MVP. The AFC Championship Game will be played in Cincinnati I truly am drinking the Kool-Aid right now, but that’s, like, the vibe, ya know? If things go their way, I see the Bengals losing three or four games this season. The Ravens are the only real threat within the division, and while they beefed up their offense, they did so at the expense of their defense. Luck is absolutely a thing. The Super Bowl-winning team has to be lucky. The thing is good teams set themselves up for things to work out their way when luck comes into the equation. The Bengals have better players, are better coached, and it’s their turn. The last stop on the road to New Orleans is Cincinnati. Ja’Marr Chase has All-Pro Season; Tee Higgins has Pro Bowl season I do believe the Bengals will get Chase signed before Week 1, and I think he’s going to explode. I think he’ll break his own franchise receiving-yards record, and I think he’ll break T.J. Houshmandzadeh’s receptions record. I think Burrow and Chase cement themselves as the league’s top quarterback-receiver duo. Higgins, I think, also has a great season, which will make him a Pro Bowler, but not on the level of All-Pro. I think the Bengals and Higgins have a symbiotic relationship in 2024. The Bengals will use Higgins to win the franchise’s first Super Bowl, and Higgins will use the Bengals to make a ton of money. Trenton Irwin will be a massive playoff hero Every great story has a great hero. In some of the best stories, the heroics often come from an unlikely source. If Lady Galadriel taught us anything it’s that, “Even the smallest person can change the course of the future.” Not to say that Trenton Irwin is a hobbit, but when you think of wide receiver and the Cincinnati Bengals, you think of Chase and Higgins. We, as Cincinnati Bengals fans, know Irwin well, but now the world will know him. I’m looking for a David Tyree/Julian Edelman-style catch. — There are more, but those are the five worth mentioning, and if the first one is to come true, the four that follow will be the reason. I hope all your fantasy drafts went well over the Holiday Weekend unless you happen to be in one of my leagues. If that’s the case, I hope you did TERRIBLY. Relevant Song Lyrics: What if I say I’m not like the
Vikings’ UDFAs, Was Zimmer Right & Early College Scouting
In the latest episode of The Real Forno Show, Tyler Forness discussed the potential for Taki Taimani, one of the Vikings’ undrafted free agents, to make an impact this season. Tyler outlined what Taimani needs to do to secure playing time and have a meaningful effect on the team. In this episode of “The Real Forno Show,” Tyler Forness gets ready to prepare us for the Minnesota Vikings’ 2024 season opener against the New York Giants in week 1, he delves into the potential impact of undrafted free agents, Mike Zimmer’s candid comments, and college football insights. #SKOL! As the Minnesota Vikings prepare for their first game of the season in just five days, there’s plenty to discuss. How will the undrafted free agents (UDFAs) contribute to the team? What’s the buzz around Mike Zimmer’s tenure with the Vikings, and how will early college football scouting influence the Vikings’ draft strategy? In this latest episode of The Real Forno Show, hosted by Tyler Forness and produced by Dave Stefano, we dive deep into these fascinating topics and more. The Zimmer Saga: Multifaceted Truths and Harsh Realities One of the hot topics in this episode is former Vikings head coach Mike Zimmer. Tyler sets the scene, referencing a recent in-depth article by Mark Craig in the Star Tribune. “The Mike Zimmer stuff was interesting, Dave, and I’ll be honest, I haven’t had a chance to watch Two Old Bloggers because I spent the weekend focused on a lot of my writing,” Tyler says. Dave shares his perspective on Craig’s article, noting some potentially biased elements: “It sort of seems like a hit piece…but behind the motivations and how he got Zimmer to talk, whether Zimmer did it willingly, which could be, but it did seem like Mike is still very angry and bitter and is having a hard time moving on or refuses to.” Tyler elaborates on the complexities: “There are always three sides: Your side, my side, and the truth. Because as much as you try to be 100 percent honest and truthful, there’s always going to be an inherent bias.” This balanced perspective underscores the need to consider various angles when discussing Zimmer’s tenure. Tyler also mentions some of the personal and professional struggles Zimmer has faced, including the tragic passing of his son Adam. Surprisingly, one of Zimmer’s coping mechanisms was an unconventional yet heartwarming activity: “He went and bought an excavator and dug a six-acre lake.” Tyler adds, “That rules so much that he just messed around and dug his own lake. How cool is that?” UDFAs: Unsung Heroes or Just Roster Fillers? Shifting gears, the conversation turns to the UDFAs and their potential impact on the Vikings’ season. In 2023, the Vikings’ UDFA class includes Jalen Redman, Taki Taimani, and Dwight McGlothern. “These guys might end up playing a major role in 2024,” Tyler points out, highlighting their potential. Tyler praises the strategic planning behind these acquisitions: “Levi Drake Rodriguez might be the first guy off the bench because he’s versatile. Taki Taimani, if he’s going to be used situationally, might not dress for every game.” The discussion then moves to how these young players could accelerate their development by getting significant playing time. “Even if only one of these guys hits, guess what? You’re going to have a rookie contract with one of them, and you’re going to pay them peanuts to be a quality rotational piece,” Tyler explains. Dave agrees, emphasizing the adaptability of the coaching strategy: “I think B-Flo’s going to use them to the best of their skills. Whether it be pushing up the middle, run-blocking, tackling…he’s going to try to pick situations that optimize their talents.” Deep Dive into College Football Scouting Next, the discussion shifts to early college football scouting, with Tyler and Dave examining standout players like Travis Hunter and wide receivers who could be game-changers for the Vikings. Tyler reflects on Travis Hunter’s unique skills but offers a word of caution: “Anybody who tells you that Travis Hunter is going to play both ways on a full-time basis, I don’t think is telling you the truth.” He elaborates on the challenge of playing both ways at an elite level: “Champ Bailey was a two-way player, Charles Woodson was a two-way player, Chris Gamble was a two-way player. Now the first two are in the Hall of Fame. Anyone attempting this will need to be a historic outlier.” Tyler’s excitement peaks when talking about Luther Burden from Missouri and Tetairoa McMillan from Arizona, who he believes could be future stars. He enthuses, “Imagine giving Deandre Hopkins more speed and three inches of height ‘cause that’s kind of what you’re working with.” Dave and Tyler then discuss the importance of drafting based on talent rather than immediate needs. “The draft should not be to address needs, it should be to address talent,” Tyler asserts. McMillan, who showcased his abilities with 10 catches for 304 yards and 4 touchdowns in a game, is someone Tyler is particularly excited about. He compares McMillan to NFL stalwarts: “Think of Vincent Jackson; McMillan has that kind of size and versatility.” The Excitement of Week One: Vikings vs. Giants As the episode wraps up, anticipation for week one against the New York Giants is strong. Dave stresses the need to focus on the upcoming game: “We want to talk about the team going in to defeat the New York Giants. Not this BS.” Tyler promises more insights into the upcoming game, saying, “We will be back on Wednesday with more as the Vikings prepare to play their first game of the 2024 season against the Giants.” Listen: Watch: In Conclusion In this episode of The Real Forno Show, Tyler and Dave dove into the upcoming Minnesota Vikings game, shedding light on how the team’s Undrafted Free Agents (UDFAs) might contribute to a successful season. They also tackled the controversial interview with former coach Mike Zimmer, providing critical insights into his tenure and its impact on
Week 1 power rankings: Almost Everyone agrees, the Lions are elite
Photo by Rey Del Rio/Getty Images All the major outlets have the Detroit Lions in the top tier of their Week 1 NFL power rankings…. except one. The first game of the 2024 NFL season is just days away, and it’s just time to say the quiet part out loud: the Detroit Lions are one of the best teams in football and quite possibly the best. This team has Super Bowl aspirations, and just about every analyst you’ll read or hear from will agree that goal is both justified and attainable for the Lions team. That is more than reflected in the opening week’s power rankings across various outlets. Of the nine outlets we looked at, seven had Detroit in the top three to start the season, and only one had them out of the top five entirely. Let’s take a closer look at what these outlets are saying about the Lions as they enter the 2024 NFL season. Yahoo Sports: 2 From Frank Schwab: The Lions had some injury scares during training camp and preseason but it doesn’t seem like any major contributors will miss Week 1. We’ll have to see if rookie first-round pick Terrion Arnold gets a starting nod for Week 1 after missing time in August with a pectoral injury. The Athletic: 2 From Josh Kendall: These guys were in a good mood when they were 1-6 in 2022. Now, they have won 21 of their last 29 games, and wide receiver Jameson Williams looks like he’s taken a step forward in practice. Add Williams’ dynamic breakaway speed to an offense that finished third in the league in yards per play last year (5.9), and Campbell might not even need that 12th daily cup of coffee. MMQB: 2 From Conor Orr: The Sports Illustrated preseason Super Bowl favorite Lions come in at No. 2 on our power rankings. We can discuss a lot about this roster but, for me, the strength is on the line of scrimmages. This is a decidedly unsexy way of talking about a team with Amon-Ra St. Brown and Jahmyr Gibbs, among many others. But D.J. Reader, Alim McNeill and Aidan Hutchinson as a combination are way more exciting to me. The Lions are going to absolutely wear teams down by forcing them into obvious passing situations which will lessen the stress on their still-developing secondary. They are also going to continue to be one of the most dominant possession teams in the NFL. Last year, the Lions held onto the ball for more than 31 minutes per game. The Browns, for reference, were the only club that broke the 32 minute barrier last year. USA Today: 2 From Nate Davis: Remember that WR Jameson Williams nearly put them over the top against the Niners in the 2023 NFC championship game. If he can develop into a consistent threat over a full season, there may be no stopping this team. The Ringer: 2 From Diante Lee: For the first time in my life, the Detroit Lions have real expectations to be one of the best teams in the NFL. Coming off of an NFC title game appearance last season, this team brought back both coordinators, nearly all of its offensive starters, and added experienced veterans Marcus Davenport, Carlton Davis, and Amik Robertson on defense, as well as first-round pick cornerback Terrion Arnold. In theory, all the defensive pieces are in place to play the style of football that Detroit wants: crushing the pocket up front and playing man coverage on the back end. Even if the defense’s aggression means they give up explosive passes at times, this defense should be much better against the pass on a down-to-down basis than it was a season ago. Sporting News: 3 From Vinnie Iyer: The Lions are hoping to make the NFC a two-team race after being strong runners-up to the 49ers last season. Detroit lost no key coaches and also worked more on shoring up weaknesses. The offense should be a little more explosive, and the defense should give Aidan Hutchinson more playmaking support on the back end. The 33rd team: 3 From Marcus Mosher: The Detroit Lions were just a few plays away from reaching the Super Bowl last year, and they made sure to retool their roster to give themselves an even better chance of taking down the 49ers. The secondary has been completely rebuilt, and they are hoping Jack Campbell will take a step in Year 2. If Detroit’s defense can be respectable, the Lions should be right back in the NFC Championship Game again. NFL.com: 4 From Eric Edholm: The 2023 Lions were a few plays away from reaching a Super Bowl with a defense that started out somewhat promisingly last season but really slipped after the early-November bye. Naturally, a lot of the focus has been placed on how much difference a revamped secondary and a beefed-up front can do for this team. Interestingly, the offense didn’t really cook until the defense had backslid a bit, so you almost have to marvel at how Detroit got to 12-5 in spite of very few complete performances — offense, defense and special teams all getting it done — after about Week 4. Believe it or not, I actually see this as a positive. The Lions were absolutely fearless, which was a big driver of their success, and I don’t expect that to change much this season. Now the talent level has risen, if only incrementally, but the biggest gains might be in the secondary and defensive front — two areas where Detroit arguably had the most room for growth. The NFC North is suddenly a bear, and the journey might not be as gilded at times, but I think the Lions can find a way to forge through with another banner season. CBS Sports: 7 [Editor’s Note: Prisco has the Packers #2, so adjust your reactions accordingly] From Pete Prisco: They should once again push for a deep playoff run
ESPN simulation of 2024 NFL season has Detroit Lions winning Super Bowl
Photo by Gregory Shamus/Getty Images An ESPN simulation of the 2024 NFL season ended with the Detroit Lions winning Super Bowl 59. Details here. On Monday, Detroit Lions coach Dan Campbell said after an offseason of not hiding from the fact that winning the Super Bowl is the goal this year, they are done setting their sights on the Lombardi Trophy and focused on goals that come well before that. “I just told the team, ‘Let’s not talk about it anymore,’” Campbell said. “And it’s just this: Of course we do (want to win a Super Bowl), who doesn’t?” We are not beholden to those same restrictions. The Super Bowl is the ultimate goal for this franchise, and for the first time in a very, very long time, that feels attainable. A predictive model over at ESPN agrees. Over on their website, Seth Walder published an article that used ESPN’s FPI (Football Power Index) to simulate the 2024 NFL season and in the end, they had the Lions beating the Kansas City Chiefs to win Super Bowl 59. Here’s a look at some of the other projections, as detailed by Walder. “Quarterback Jared Goff proved he was “good enough for f—ing Detroit,” continuing the relentless efficiency that he showed in offensive coordinator Ben Johnson’s system in 2023 by finishing in the top three in QBR,” Walder wrote. “Cornerback Carlton Davis III bounced back to be a critical part of the Lions’ secondary, and defensive end Aidan Hutchinson took another step toward stardom, recording 14 sacks and forcing four fumbles. “The combination led the Lions to 13 wins and the top seed in the NFC. Detroit took care of upstart Chicago in the divisional round before settling the score in the NFC title game with San Francisco to advance to New Orleans and Super Bowl LIX.” Now, there’s an important caveat to the methodology here. Walder ran the FPI simulation 20,000 times, but the selection of the Lions as Super Bowl winners was not the result of the most popular outcome for those simulations. Rather, Walder just randomly picked out one simulation of the 20,000 (he calls it No. 515), and that one just so happened to have the Lions as Super Bowl winners. Still, going by FPI’s overall probabilities, the dataset has the Lions with a 10.3 percent chance to win the Super Bowl, only behind the 49ers (15.8%) and Chiefs (11.9%). They also have the third-best odds to make the Super Bowl (17.6%). In other words, gone are the days of “So you’re saying there’s a chance” memes are over. There’s actually a real chance.
Test your NFL knowledge with SB Nation’s new daily trivia game
Your new daily word game obsession is here. Be one of the first people to try out our new NFL player guessing game. Game week is here, but we’re adding something to the mix that we hope will provide a fun time for all. SB Nation’s product team has been playing around with a new daily trivia game and we get to be a beta test site for it! The goal of the game is to guess the correct random NFL player with the help of up to five clues. It won’t be easy to figure it out in one or two guesses, but some of you might be able to nail it. We’ll be playing this all week long with a mix of active and retired players. It will be a mix of well-known players and some “that guys” that we haven’t thought of in some time. The game will appear in slot #3 of the POD layout each day this week, with a new article each day for the game. After you correctly guess the player, you can click “Share Results” to share how you did in the comments and on social media. We won’t go into other details about the game as we’d like your feedback on it. How it plays, what you think of it, the difficulty level, and anything else you can think of that will let us know what you think and how we can improve the game. You can provide feedback in the comments of this article, or you can fill out this Google Form. Enjoy! What we need from you Play the game Share your result in the comments and on social media Provide feedback (Google Form or in comments below) SB Nation in-5
Fantasy Football ‘24: 15 not-so-bold predictions
Double coverage? Doesn’t matter. | Photo by David Berding/Getty Images A look inside the fantasy football crystal ball Labor Day weekend has come and gone, so I feel like I can finally say it: Welcome to the 2024 NFL season! You’ve drafted most of your teams, and now it’s time to lock in your Week 1 lineups and cross your fingers. Buckle up — one thing I’ve learned from playing fantasy football for 30+ years is that you never know what’s going to happen once the ref blows the whistle. Before we get started, my Week 1 Fantasy Preview column, with my rides, fades, and sleepers, will publish this Thursday, right here at Big Blue View. It’ll be a weekly Thursday feature, and my Waiver Wire columns will run each Monday, starting next week. So keep it right here! Today I’m going to share 15 not-so-bold fantasy football predictions for the 2024 season. Throwing down a few predictions is always fun, and there are no consequences for being wildly off-target with hot takes. But I’ll tell you what — if I’m wrong about more than half of these, you get your money back. Last year, I didn’t get a single prediction wrong! But that’s only because I didn’t write a predictions column. I went back and looked at my not-so-bold predictions from the 2022 season, and I wish I hadn’t. What a mess. My first prediction was correct: That Deebo Samuel would regress after his massive 2021 season and finish outside the Top-10 WRs. My second prediction was that Kyle Pitts would lead all TEs in a bunch of stats (ugh)…and it went downhill from there. So with all of that said, here are 15 fresh predictions for this season. They’re “not-so-bold” because they aren’t outlandish. I’d give each one at least a 30% chance of happening. Photo by Ryan Kang/Getty ImagesI’ve got Kupp a little higher than Puka Cooper Kupp will outscore Puka Nacua in all PPR and standard formats. I’m not alone on this one, and when discussing Kupp in my players to target column I noted that you can get him two or three rounds later than Nacua. Puka is dealing with a sore knee, and while Kupp is over 30, he appears to be fully healthy and his and connection with Matt Stafford is undeniable. Kupp won’t win the triple crown like he did in 2021, but I’m feeling a very big season from him. 2. Justin Jefferson will lead all wide receivers in targets and catches. Sam Darnold has scared away a lot of people. Were people really all that confident in rookie J.J. McCarthy making Jefferson the No. 1 WR again? Jefferson has shown in the past that he is QB-proof, and with T.J. Hockenson slated to miss significant time to start the season and Jordan Addison banged up and possibly staring at a suspension, who else is Darnold going to throw to? Jefferson’s volume is going to be nuts. 3. Malik Nabers will lead all rookie wide receivers in targets, catches, and fantasy points. I know, his QB is Daniel Jones. And this could be close with Marvin Harrison, Jr. and a few other rookies in position to start and be big cogs right away. I’ll still bet on Nabers, who’s going to be the focal point of the Giants’ passing offense, and looked uncoverable in camp. 4. Brian Thomas, Jr. will be the No. 1 fantasy scorer among the Jacksonville pass-catchers. I believe in the talent, and reports out of camp were glowing. While we are here, two other rookies not named Harrison or Nabers who I think have a legitimate shot at doing this on their respective teams are Keon Coleman and Ladd McConkey. Photo by Kevin Sabitus/Getty ImagesI’m all-in on the Heisman winner 5. Speaking of Thomas…Trevor Lawrence will have his first finish as a QB1 (Top-12). Lawrence has an ADP in the QB16-18 range, but I’m feeling a big bounce back from the disappointment of 2023. He had all kinds of bad luck and some injuries last season, and I think Jacksonville’s defense will be below average. The AFC South is full of teams that can score, and Jacksonville is one of them. Expect Trevor to be in his share of shootouts. 6. Jayden Daniels will outscore Caleb Williams, and finish the season as a Top-10 QB and the top rookie at the position. The rushing floor almost assures this if he can stay healthy. And that’s the bet – that he plays at least 15 games. While we’re here I’ll give you a bonus WR prediction: Terry McLaurin will finish as a Top-15 WR, and people will start calling him Scary Terry again. Last year, he couldn’t even have scare Shaggy and Scooby. 7. Will Levis will significantly outperform his ADP, and finish as a borderline QB1 in deeper leagues (14-18 teams). I’m all-in on the AFC South having four quarterbacks you can count on this season. Photo by Cooper Neill/Getty ImagesBreece Hall is locked and loaded for a big year 8. Josh Jacobs will finish the season as a Top-5 RB. He did it once before (2022), on a much worse offense. 9. Derrick Henry, in his age 30 season, will have the best yards-per-carry average of his career (previous best: 5.4 in 2020). I think box safeties are going to have actual nightmares before they play Baltimore. 10. It will only take one week for Breece Hall to have more carries inside the 5-yard line than the ONE that he had ALL of last season. That actually happened, people. What the actual…The real prediction here is that Hall will lead the NFL in yards from scrimmage in 2024. Book it! Photo by Christian Petersen/Getty ImagesThe TE position is loaded with talent in ‘24 11. At least three tight ends will have at least 100 catches this season (the last time more than one tight end had 100 catches in a season was 2020, when two
