Photo by Julio Aguilar/Getty Images Which player on the Jacksonville Jaguars could give the Detroit Lions the most trouble on Sunday? The Detroit Lions are nearly two-touchdown favorites of the Jacksonville Jaguars, so needless to say it would be a pretty big surprise if Detroit lost at home on Sunday. This team has done a very good job in the past of avoiding any sort of trap or letdown game, with the only real counterexample being their odd loss to the Carolina Panthers back in 2022. But even having said that, the Jaguars have a talented roster. Their owner even called it the “best team assembled by the Jacksonville Jaguars, ever.” And while those comments certainly seem foolish now that the team is 2-8, when you look at the actual depth chart, there is no shortage of decent players across the roster. So today’s Question of the Day is: Which Jaguars player could give the Lions the most trouble on Sunday? My answer: Travon Walker. If you’re like me, you’ve been so happy with Aidan Hutchinson’s play that you haven’t bothered to check in how Walker and Kayvon Thibodeaux have been doing. The debate between all three players waged on prior to the 2022 NFL Draft, and Hutchinson seems to have put that debate to a definitive end with how he’s played through 2.5 seasons. But Walker has developed into a great player, and one that would very much fit in Detroit’s defense. He’s physical, he violent, and he’s really, really good in the run game. So this week, he could give the Lions trouble. In 2024, Walker leads the Jaguars with 7.5 sacks and nine tackles for loss. His 35 pressures ranks t-16th in the NFL. And his 14 run stops is tied for eighth most among all NFL edge defenders. The biggest thing working against Walker is that he typically lines up on the defense’s left, meaning he’ll draw Penei Sewell for much of Sunday’s game. That’s a losing formula no matter who you are. But he should still be a challenge in the run game and any time he’s lined up opposite left tackle Taylor Decker—who is not 100%—he could be a threat as a pass rusher. Which Jaguars player do you think could give the Lions trouble on Sunday? Scroll down to the comment section and let us know!
Open thread: Which Jaguars player could give the Lions the most trouble?
Big Blue View mailbag: Draft, Joe Schoen and Brian Daboll, more questions
Vincent Moody asks: The Giants flame out this season and end with a top draft pick. They fire Dabs. Draft Shedeur and hire Deion Sanders as coach? Ed says: No. Vincent, I would be surprised if John Mara signed off on drafting Shedeur Sanders because of the Prime Time presence I think could loom over whatever team drafts him. Joe Schoen and Brian Daboll have shown a willingness to deal with big personalities like Kayvon Thibodeaux and Malik Nabers. If they like Sanders enough and think they can deal with the distractions his father would inevitably bring — if Deion would even sign off on his son being drafted by the Giants — they might try to convince Mara it would be worth the risk. I am not sure he would go for it. Adding Deion as head coach? No. That’s a Cowboys or a Raiders kind of thing to do. Not a Giants kind of thing to do. Larry Jamieson asks: I’ve been in the “Let DJ play it out” to see what he could do with a good team around him. While there is still a way to go, the roster is vastly improved from where it was, especially on the O line, yet, here we are. One of the big reasons for keeping Jones in there was that management and coaches didn’t want to seem like they were raising the white flag and giving up on the season. Everyone, at least publicly, has been very supportive of Jones, but I’m wondering how you think the rest of the team would react to a QB change? Ed says: Larry, I think we are about to find out how the rest of the team will react. Players respect Jones. They know how hard he works. They know how much he cares. They know he puts his body on the line and doesn’t shy away from hits most quarterbacks wouldn’t take. They know how well he represents the franchise. They also want to win. They know they aren’t doing it. They know they aren’t scoring nearly enough points or taking advantage of nearly enough opportunities. They know they all share some of the blame, but they also know that quarterback play is a major part of the issue. You can tell by how they grope for answers and don’t come up with any good ones when asked how to fix it. None of them are going to say outright that they need a different/better quarterback. GM Joe Schoen did a smart thing this week when he framed a possible Jones benching as a “football decision” and not a financial one, though we know finances will have something to do with it. He spoke about how important it is for the young players to win some games and not get accustomed to or accept losing. When they make the move they can and will sell it as what they believe will give the team the best chance to win some games the rest of the way. Players will feel bad for Jones, but they will accept that. Paul Miller asks: I’m writing this right after the OT loss in Germany. Other than the losses to Minnesota and Philly every other loss was winnable. I’m convinced that they have a lot of really good pieces in place, just not at QB. I hope that John Mara does not jettison Schoen or Daboll. Schoen was part of the Bills staff when they took Josh Allen so let him pick his guy. Do you think Mara will be patient? Ed says: Paul, I don’t know. I think Mara wants to be patient. I think he knows he needs to patient with a head coach/GM combo at some point if the Giants are ever going to do better than accidentally being good once every five or six years. I think he should be patient with Schoen and Daboll. I just don’t know if he will be able to be. A lot depends on what it looks and feels like over the final seven games. David Kanterasks: This is the perfect and possibly only point (remember last year) in the season to dream big. I think Schoen is right but I’m a sucker for optimism. Why can’t we be next season’s Commanders? We draft Shedeur, a corner, and some OL. DJ is gone. The salary cap next year is mostly dedicated to productive players at this point. I think we’ve had some decent drafts, we’ve got a D that’s pretty good and we shore up the secondary in free agency. We sign a top OL piece, resign Slayton. Dreaming is really the only reason at this point in the season most of us are tuning in. Ed says: David, the NFL is a year-to-year league. It is designed to make you dream, and as a Giants fan you should do just that. If the Giants land a C.J. Stroud or a Jayden Daniels everything looks different. Of course, just taking a quarterback doesn’t mean that result is guaranteed. See Bryce Young. See Anthony Richardson. See the last six years with Daniel Jones. You have to take the swing at some point, but there are more misses than hits. Bill Goggin asks: Is it me, or did Schoen strongly hint that he wanted to hire Russell Wilson, but Wilson wasn’t interested? Ed says: Bill, I don’t think you are crazy to think Schoen was interested in Wilson. My understanding of that situation, though, is that Wilson knew the Giants were looking for a backup for Jones and not someone who thought they were coming in to compete for the Day 1 starting job. Wilson was never going to accept that. He went to the Pittsburgh Steelers, of course, where Wilson would have been the Week 1 starter had he not been injured. For those who missed it, here is what Schoen said when asked about Wilson: “You go through the process, you do what you do.
Bengals News (11/16): Did Cincinnati plan trade up for Jahmyr Gibbs?
Photo by Alex Slitz/Getty Images The Bengals may have had a running back in mind for the future of their franchise. Detroit Lions star thought Cincinnati Bengals would draft him“I knew for a fact that Dallas was gonna get me at No. 26 if I was still there,” Gibbs said. “And a couple other places like Cincinnati is gonna get met at like No. 18 or somewhere around that range.” Bengals Chargers Preview WHAT TO WATCH FORSunday night features a battle between two elite quarterbacks who entered the league as first-round picks in the 2020 NFL Draft. Bengals Sign TE Cam Grandy to Active Roster, Waive HB Kendall MiltonGrandy, a rookie out of Illinois State University, spent the first 10 weeks of the season on Cincinnati’s practice squad. He was elevated from the practice squad to the active roster for the team’s Week 10 game at Baltimore. Tee Higgins Expected To Play Vs. Chargers; Defense Boosted With B.J. Hill, Logan Wilson | QUICK HITS“I expect him to be like Tee,” said Bengals head coach Zac Taylor after Friday’s practice even though he listed as limited throughout the week. “I felt that last week that we’d be here this week. This week verified that. Today verified that.” Ravens DC Zach Orr ‘crushed’ by unit’s performance vs. Bengals, knows ‘time is clicking’ to fix issues“I’m always grateful to win,” Orr said. “That’s the number one thing — if we win, I’m going to be good — but I always have to look at how we perform on defense, and if it’s not up to the standard, I’m not going to be happy [for] too long after I celebrate the win.” Ja’Marr Chase Praises Newest Member of Bengals Wide Receiver Room Isaiah Williams“He came in jumping. He’s on it right now, not gonna lie,” Chase said. “I’d be excited to see what he can do. He looks smooth right now playing too, so it’ll be nice to see what he can do.” Cincinnati Bengals quarterback Joe Burrow within reach of prestigious TD records.With another three-TD performance this season, Burrow would tie Pro Football Hall of Famer Kurt Warner for the third most games with at least three touchdown passes in the first five seasons of a career. NFL Week 11 bold predictions: Double-digit sacks in Ravens-Steelers rivalry bout; Bo Nix has BIG dayWill this installment of Ravens-Steelers provide a cluster of splash plays on one side of the ball? Which rookie quarterback is poised for a touchdown binge? Dolphins’ Tyreek Hill likely needs wrist surgery but won’t undergo procedure until offseasonTyreek Hill’s wrist injury is serious enough for the receiver to consider surgery, but not until after the end of the 2024 season. The Dolphins WR will play against the Raiders despite the ailment.
Colts Reacts Survey Results: Jet-bound to New York
Photo by Alex Trautwig/Getty Images The Horseshoe Faithful have spoken ahead of Week 11’s road matchup against the NewYork Jets! The Indianapolis Colts (4-6) head to the ‘Big Apple’ to take on Aaron Rodgers and the New York Jets (3-7). Gang Green has lost 6 of its last 7 games, meaning that this is very much a winnable road matchup for the Colts during what’s been a tough stretch of opponents. In fact, more than a majority of Colts fans at 62% believe that Indianapolis will be ‘road warriors’ and take care of business this upcoming Sunday against an old AFC East rival: Of course, the big story of the week for the Colts is that 2nd-year quarterback Anthony Richardson is returning to the starting lineup—after being benched for two straight games for purported ‘lack of preparation and attention-to-detail’ concerns. The Colts offense clearly struggled even more so in Richardson’s absence, as Flacco wasn’t able to provide the spark that Indianapolis was ideally hoping for down the stretch—and replicate last year’s late season success with the Cleveland Browns. Richardson’s reinsertion may have caused the recent increase in Colts fans’ confidence in the direction of the franchise, as that number increased from 5% to 37% over the past week: Still, there’s been far sunnier days in Indianapolis than what we’ve seen over the past few seasons—as the Colts have struggled finding a long-term answer at starting quarterback, and that’s seemingly had a trickle down effect on the rest of the organization from a locker room, leadership, and accountability standpoint within the clubhouse. So who’s most to blame? The survey results (51%) this week say longtime Colts general manager Chris Ballard, who’s in the middle of Year 8 with the franchise—and has so far produced a single playoff win and 0 division titles over his entire tenure in Indianapolis:
SB Nation Reacts: Raiders fans have a slight dip in confidence going into the Week 11
Photo by Andy Lyons/Getty Images Raiders fan lose confidence during the bye week in the teams direction The Las Vegas Raiders are getting ready to face the Miami Dolphins in Miami. The two teams almost have identical records and attempt to revive their seasons with a win. Antonio Pierce changed the coaching staff and conducted a team meeting last week. The meeting didn’t end like last season with Josh McDaniels, but grievances were out in the open. It could be a turning point for a team on the brink of looking toward the draft, just like their fans. In this week’s SB Nation Reacts, we ask for your confidence in the team’s direction. The last two weeks have shown a surprising rise in confidence, with the rookies performing well. However, this week, we saw a slight drop from 24% to 18% going into the matchup vs the Dolphins, The drop makes sense, given all the Raiders’ changes this season. While some in the fan base hope the slide will continue, the Players are pushing to get back on track. Hopefully, they will find a way to win an upset against the Miami Dolphins. Bet on the game with FanDuel Sportsbook, SB Nation’s official sportsbook partner!
Bills vs. Chiefs: 3 key matchups to watch in Week 11
Bills vs. Chiefs: 3 key matchups to watch in Week 11 Bills vs. Chiefs: 3 key matchups to watch in Week 11 Kam Towle The Buffalo Bills will host the Kansas City Chiefs in their upcoming Week 11 matchup. Even though these two teams are extremely familiar with one another, it will still be the games, within the game, that will make all the difference. Here are three key matchups to watch during Sunday’s Bills-Chiefs contest: Bills running backs vs. Chiefs front seven USA TODAY Sports The Bills have enjoyed a resurgence in their running game this year. James Cook has had 80 or more rushing yards in three of his last five games, and he has five rushing touchdowns over that stretch. Buffalo has found a true complement to Josh Allen’s passing game. But, rushing yards should be tougher to come by this week. The Chiefs allow the third-fewest rushing yards per game this year (83.2). And, advanced metrics back up their play, too. Kansas City ranks second in the NFL in defense rushing DVOA. Whoever wins this matchup will play a big role in the game. If the Bills can run the ball effectively, it will open up anything they want to do on offense. If they can’t, they’ll have to rely on the arm and legs of Allen. DE Greg Rousseau vs. LT Wanya Morris Getty Images Kansas City’s left tackle has had his struggles this year, and he’s coming off a knee injury in Week 10. Rousseau, on the other hand, is having his best season as a pro. Morris ranks as the 62nd-best offensive tackle in the NFL according to Pro Football Focus, while Rousseau grades as the eighth-best pass rusher among edge defenders. Rousseau has just 5.5 sacks through ten games, but he has been consistently getting after the passer. He ranks fourth in the NFL with 19 QB knockdowns and is tied for 10th in the NFL with 22 pressures. Patrick Mahomes vs. the second level of Bills’ D Getty Images The Chiefs quarterback loves to get the ball out quickly in head coach Andy Reid’s offense. They put a lot of trust in their skill players to catch underneath passes and produce yards after the catch. In turn, this puts a lot of stress on Bills defenders to make plays in space. More specifically, Buffalo’s linebackers (and slot corner Taron Johnson) will have their hands full while trying to stop the run, cover the pass, and make sound tackles in space. When these teams met in the divisional round of last season’s playoffs, the Bills were without Terrel Bernard in the middle of the defense. They had trouble on defense in that game, so we will see what kind of difference Bernard can make in this rivalry. Read all the best Bills coverage at the Democrat and Chronicle and Bills Wire.
Giants news, 11/16: Daniel Jones, Darius Slayton, Tommy DeVito, more headlines
Charles LeClaire-Imagn Images New York Giants news for Saturday Good morning, New York Giants fans! From Big Blue View New York Giants fans pining for the return of DeVito-mania New York Giants’ rookie class is making the grade Wide receiver makeover might be New York Giants’ GM Joe Schoen’s best work Other Giant observations 2024 NFL offensive line rankings ahead of Week 11 | PFF The Giants moved Jermaine Eluemunor to left tackle and had former first-round pick Evan Neal start at right tackle for the first time this season. Neal put forth an encouraging performance in the loss to the Panthers, garnering a 93.4 PFF run-blocking grade that ranked second among all offensive tackles in the NFL this week. Since Week 2, guard Jon Runyan has allowed a knockdown — sack or quarterback hit — on just 0.5% of pass plays, which is tied for the 14th-best rate among 73 qualifying guards. The Athletic’s Dianna Russini: Signs point to Jones continuing to be the starter “In the conversations that I’ve had, Daniel Jones may be staying as the starting quarterback here for a few more weeks.” @DMRussini on the latest she is hearing about the New York Giants quarterback positions. WATCH: https://t.co/3QXBUBp36G pic.twitter.com/QmbCavzbuO — Dan Le Batard Show with Stugotz (@LeBatardShow) November 15, 2024 1 Stat That Defines Every NFL Team’s Season | Bleacher Report New York Giants: 8. Touchdown passes from Daniel Jones in 10 games, putting him on pace to throw 15 or fewer touchdown passes for a fifth year in a row. This year, only Deshaun Watson and Jacoby Brissett (both benched) have lower qualified TD pass rates. He’s not the answer, people. Giants on track for historically bad interception drought | New York Post It has been nine games since the Giants’ one and only interception of the season — made by rookie linebacker Darius Muasau in the meaningless final three minutes of a season-opening 22-point loss to the Vikings. The 2017 Raiders defense set the modern NFL record (since 1933) by going 10 straight games — a span of 357 passes — without an interception, according to Elias Sports Bureau. One year later, the 49ers and Cardinals each endured an eight-game drought that has been eclipsed by the Giants, who will return from this week’s bye trying to avoid tying dubious history Nov. 24 against the Buccaneers. 2025 NFL Free Agents Playing Their Way Into Big Contracts | The 33rd Team Darius Slayton, WR, New York Giants Projected AAV: $17 million/year Slayton turns 28 in January, so he’s not the youngest receiver on the market. However, you can expect that teams will be chasing Slayton’s upside with the hope of pairing him with a true No. 1 receiver on a good offense. With Jerry Jeudy earning a $17.5 million contract last offseason, look for Slayton’s numbers to be similar. Playing the “One-Possession What If” game WOW The NFL standings with all one-possession games flipped: pic.twitter.com/f7Ox0Bw0Vq — Nash Henry (@NashJagsNats22) November 14, 2024 The 12 NFL teams that could have new starting quarterbacks in 2025 | The Athletic Potential 2025 starting quarterback: Cam Ward It’s over for Jones in New York. The Giants tried to draft his replacement this past offseason but couldn’t move up and decided against selecting the likes of Michael Penix Jr., J.J. McCarthy or Bo Nix, all of whom were still on the board when New York picked wide receiver Malik Nabers at No. 6. Right or wrong, the Giants now have no choice but to draft a quarterback, and at the moment, they are in prime position to do it. NFL Mock Draft 2025: Travis Hunter, Shedeur Sanders go 1-2 | Sporting News 2. New York Giants 2-8. Shedeur Sanders, QB, Colorado Daniel Jones’ rollercoaster ride with coach Brian Daboll keeps going back down for stretches after limited peaks. Jones’ work and the Giants’ struggles might lead to Daboll not returning, but whoever’s in charge of the offense would lobby to replace Jones with Sanders. The Colorado star is separating himself from other QBs as the most polished pocket passer, one who can fit right into the Giants’ youth movement vibe with WR Malik Nabers, RB Tyrone Tracy Jr., and TE Theo Johnson. 2025 NFL draft: Six-team race for No. 1 pick, top prospects | ESPN.com What could they do with the top pick? I like the fit for Miami quarterback Cam Ward. With Jones not likely to start for the Giants next season (and perhaps not with the team at all), New York will be searching for its new franchise signal-caller. Ward is an electric playmaker who can create and make all the throws. Daboll could help him develop over time and limit his decision-making mistakes. Around the league Saquon Barkley “deserves some MVP consideration” | Bleeding Green Nation Cowboys star bashes Giants over Saquon Barkley disrespect | NJ.com How bad is Cowboys’ offense? Worst start in McCarthy’s career | ESPN.com Cowboys’ Zack Martin addresses retirement speculation sparked by comments from teammate Micah Parsons | CBSSports.com Mike McCarthy says Cowboys ‘have to’ get Rico Dowdle the ball: ‘He’s the lead back’ | NFL.com Dallas Cowboys Jonathan Mingo needs to show what his future with team could look like | Blogging The Boys Dan Quinn and Jayden Daniels talk about 4th downs, another loss, and the mini-bye before the Cowboys | Hogs Haven Commanders’ Dan Quinn defends fourth-down decision in loss to Eagles: ‘Bold call’ | NFL.com Jalen Ramsey hurt his knee in practice, is not ruled out for Sunday | Pro Football Talk Bills TE Dalton Kincaid (knee) ruled out Sunday vs. the Chiefs | ESPN.com Chiefs place kicker Harrison Butker on IR, sign Jets’ Spencer Shrader as fill-in | The Athletic Davante Adams is expected to play, C.J. Mosley and Tyron Smith are out | Pro Football Talk Bengals WR Tee Higgins expected to play vs. Chargers after three weeks sidelined by quad injury | NFL.com Sam Darnold, Aaron Jones have no injury designations for Sunday |
Previewing Raiders/Dolphins week 11 matchup – The Splash Zone 11/16/24
Jim Rassol / USA TODAY NETWORK Welcome to the Splash Zone, the quickest way to get your day started off right. We bring you a rundown of Miami Dolphins news from the last 24 hours. The Miami Dolphins will be looking to go on a two game win streak for the first this season when they take on the Las Vegas Raiders tomorrow. After beating the Los Angeles Rams on Monday night, the Dolphins should be feeling pretty good knowing their playoff dreams haven’t shattered yet. They still have an uphill climb and pretty much have to win most of their games down the stretch. But there is hope and the Dolphins can build on that hope if they can beat the Raiders on Sunday. You can check out that story here, and the rest of the day’s round-up below. Raiders-Dolphins Preview – CBSSports.comMIAMI GARDENS, Fla. (AP) Mike McDaniel has said amid the Dolphins’ struggles this season that adversity would reveal the character of the team. Raiders at Dolphins Breaking Down the Final Miami Dolphins Week 11 Injury ReportThe Miami Dolphins have five players listed as questionable, plus an important update on Jalen Ramsey Dolphins Defensive Line Miami Dolphins Looking at D-LinemenThe Miami Dolphins had three players in for workouts this week Former Dolphins Miami Dolphins With Subtle Message to DeShon ElliottThe Miami Dolphins reaction to former safety DeShon Elliott’s soft comments Phinsider News You May Have Missed Hope is a dangerous thing – Miami Dolphins News 11/14/24 – The PhinsiderWelcome to the Splash Zone, the quickest way to get your day started off right. We bring you a rundown of Miami Dolphins news from the last 24 hours. Dolphins Reacts Survey: How confident are you in the Dolphins? – The PhinsiderTake our survey, and discuss with your fellow fans in the comments! Thursday Night Football winners picks odds, and predictions: Week 11 Commanders vs. Eagles – The PhinsiderThe Washington Commanders visit their NFC East rivals the Philadelphia Eagles on Week 11’s Thursday Night Football. Where will the Raiders at Dolphins game be televised? TV coverage map Week 11 2024 – The PhinsiderWhere will the Las Vegas Raiders at Miami Dolphins game air during Week 11? Phinsider Victory Of The Week Open Thread Vol. 610 – The PhinsiderJoin us on Friday evenings to share and discuss your victory of the week.
Ravens vs. Steelers: Derrick Henry and Najee Harris may impact tempo
Ravens vs. Steelers: Derrick Henry and Najee Harris may impact tempo Larry Brown Jr. Both Baltimore Ravens running back Derrick Henry and Pittsburgh Steelers running back Najee Harris rank in the top ten in rush attempts for the 2024 season. Henry ranks No. 1 with 184 attempts while Harris has 157, sitting at No. 8. In their week 11 AFC North divisional matchup, which running back will dictate the pace? Sunday’s forecast may yield gloomy weather as the Steelers look to remain ahead of their rival in the AFC. Steelers head coach Mike Tomlin has already expressed a concern with defending the very deep depth chart of the Ravens offense. So, expect Tomlin to rely on Harris and reserve running back Jaylen Warren to feature numerous carries versus the Ravens’ No. 1 ranked rush defense. Henry’s usage may actually be more critical for the Ravens if his team wants to prevail on the road. With Steelers linebacker T.J. Watt’s pass-rushing threat, Ravens’ offensive coordinator Todd Monken cannot get pass-happy this weekend. Granted, Henry, a minimum of 19 carries will be important if the Ravens want to dictate the game tempo. Tomlin never seems to get off schedule, and his determination is clearly expressed in his dedication to Harris and the Steelers ground game. Harris only has 645 total rushing yards compared to Henry’s 1,120, but Tomlin insists on feeding him the ball, knowing that the offense relies on his production. Ravens head coach John Harbaugh must be mindful of the Steelers’ game plan and counter by using Henry to control the game tempo and extend offensive drives.
Vikings Could Benefit from Greater Use of Double Tight Ends
Brad Rempel-Imagn Images It’s also trending among top offenses in the league Success in the modern NFL is founded on passing the ball well. It’s a passing league and the rules have changed over the years and decades to favor passing. And over the years the use of 11 personnel (3 wide receivers) has become the most used offensive personnel group. Most teams use it at least half of all offensive snaps and some use it as often as 90%, but the average this season is 60.9%. For the Minnesota Vikings, they’ve used 11 personnel on a nearly average 56.9% of their offensive snaps. The longstanding counter to 11 personnel usage offensively has been the use of nickel personnel defensively, where a defensive back replaces a linebacker, giving the defense three cornerbacks to counter the three wide receivers on offense. But in recent years the rise of two-deep or split safety shell coverages to limit chunk passing plays has made the use of 11 personnel less effective. In fact, the league average EPA/play in 11 personnel has been negative for the last three seasons. By contrast, EPA/play in 12 personnel is positive this year and has been in two of the last three seasons. But more importantly, for offenses able to pass well from 12 personnel, the gains in terms of EPA/play have significantly outpaced the best in 11 personnel. In EPA/play terms, the top ten 11 personnel offenses have averaged 0.18 EPA/pass whereas the top ten 12 personnel offenses have averaged 0.34 EPA/pass – nearly twice that of 11 personnel. So How Can 12 Personnel Help the Vikings? The Vikings have not done as well this year in 11 personnel, ranking 15th with an EPA/pass of 0.00. That’s a whopping 0.01 better than league average but given the receiving weapons the Vikings have at their disposal, and that the Darnold-to-Jefferson connection has been the most potent in the league so far this season from an EPA standpoint, it really isn’t great. Worse, 11 personnel has been a disaster in the red zone for the Vikings. They rank 27th in EPA/pass in the red zone with 11 personnel at -0.48. What’s happened is that defenses have begun using split safety shell coverages more often against the Vikings, which has allowed them to crowd Jefferson and more generally limit the Vikings’ chunk plays, especially in more recent games. That culminated in the Jaguars game when they used split safety coverage over 90% of the time. And in the red zone, teams are seeing that the Vikings rank 6th in passing touchdowns, but 30th in rushing touchdowns, so they’re playing coverage against the Vikings in the red zone betting they won’t be able to run it in. That’s led to a deteriorating red zone TD conversion percentage for the Vikings, which is now down to 19th at 53.33%. The good news is that the Vikings have the 9th highest EPA/pass in 12 personnel at 0.26 and rank 4th in the red zone at 0.9 using 12 personnel The thing is, the Vikings use 12 personnel below league average in the red zone at 19% (league average is 21.3%), and only slightly above average overall at 23.6% compared to the league average of 21.5%. Some of the top offenses in 12 personnel are using it on 30%+ of their snaps so far this season, and an even higher percentage in the red zone. The Vikings could do that too. In fairness to Kevin O’Connell, he only just recently got T.J. Hockenson back, so the prospect of ramping up double tight end sets may not have been as attractive with Johnny Mundt when it comes to also playing your best eleven as much as possible. But against the Jaguars last Sunday, the Vikings used more double tight end sets, in part to either force the Jaguars into single-high safety coverage (which Darnold and Jefferson are more effective against) or gain the advantage in running the ball or targeting underneath routes in front of the safeties- often to tight ends. They also had success running the ball out of 12 personnel as well. Overall, using 12 personnel should be a win-win-win for the Vikings’ offense. First, the Vikings have the highest graded double tight end combo in the league according to PFF, with Hockenson ranked 3rd and Oliver 6th. Hockenson has the 5th highest yards per route run (1.83) after his first two games among tight ends, while Oliver has the 2nd highest passer rating when targeted (146.2). So, as receivers they’re both targets to have on the field. Oliver has shown in recent games how underrated he is as a receiver. Secondly, should opposing defenses continue to use split safety shell coverages and double Jefferson, using 12 personnel will give the Vikings the numbers advantage in the box in the running game, which in turn may allow them to have better production running the ball, including more explosive runs. Third, using 12 personnel doesn’t take Justin Jefferson off the field. If the defense moves to single safety coverage, that could open things up a bit for Jefferson. Or, the Vikings could also work Jefferson on some underneath routes to get him the ball in yards-after-catch situations. Either way, using 12 personnel can more effectively present a ‘pick your poison’ approach to opposing defenses. Whether wide receivers Jefferson and Addison/Nailor, tight ends Hockenson and Oliver, or running backs Aaron Jones and Cam Akers, the Vikings have weapons to beat opposing defenses whatever they plan to dial up to stop them. We’ll see if Kevin O’Connell uses more 12 personnel in the future, beginning with the Titans game on Sunday, to drive efficiency and scoring on the offensive side of the ball. Stay tuned. Follow me on X and Bluesky @wludford
