Pro Football Focus (PFF), the industry leader in sports data and analytics, and Dropback, one of the fastest-growing startups in collegiate sports tech, announced a strategic partnership to fuel college front offices and power winning decisions with the same data trusted by all 134 FBS teams. PFF and Dropback partnership powers winning decisions in college sports’ revenue-sharing era By PFF.com Posted Nov 22, 2024 2:00 am EST (Cincinnati, Ohio) — Pro Football Focus (PFF), the industry leader in sports data and analytics, and Dropback, one of the fastest-growing startups in collegiate sports tech, announced a strategic partnership to fuel college front offices and power winning decisions with the same data trusted by all 134 FBS teams. Dropback is an all-in-one General Manager software for college sports. In addition to the platform’s contracts, payroll and reports modules, Dropback is powered by a first-of-its-kind Valuation Modeler, enabling programs to build custom, defensible athlete valuation formulas via program-specific data, metrics, baselines and weights. “In college sports’ new era, general managers help their teams win by maximizing every dollar spent on their rosters. To provide GMs with the industry’s best athletic reputation data, partnering with PFF is a no-brainer,” said Luke Bogus, co-founder and CEO at Dropback. “This partnership paves the way for the future of college sports. For the first time, GMs and coaches can translate their athlete evaluations — with integrations like PFF’s powerful data and analytics — into roster valuations, using Dropback’s innovative front-office tech,” Bogus added. This collaboration connects Dropback users with PFF data by integrating with existing scouting workflows to expedite roster valuation and budget-building processes. PFF’s partnership with Dropback’s front-office platform will help teams strategically build winning rosters against their new NIL and revenue-sharing budgets. “We’re thrilled to partner with Dropback to usher in this new era of college football. I’m eager to see the results teams realize by combining PFF data with their proprietary inputs within the Dropback platform,” said Tyler Phillips, business development lead at PFF. For more information about the elite programs running their GM operations on Dropback’s technology, visit the website. About PFF Since 2006, PFF has built the world’s most comprehensive sports data and analytics database, relied on by top industry professionals and fans alike to power winning decisions. PFF analyzes every player and every play of every game to calculate player grades, in-depth performance stats, and rankings for the NFL, fantasy football, and NFL Draft. All 32 NFL teams use PFF data and tools, as do all 134 FBS teams, 82 FCS teams, professional leagues like CFL, USFL and XFL, media networks, player agencies, video game companies and more. PFF is transforming sports strategy and decision-making across fantasy football and betting, in the front office and on the field. For more information, visit PFF.com. About Dropback Dropback is the first pro-grade tool for constructing competitive rosters with build-your-own private financial models. Elite Power 4 athletic departments turn to Dropback to save hundreds of hours by integrating the full roster management lifecycle into one platform. From budgets and strategy for GMs to contracts and payouts for admins, Dropback is the first pro-grade, all-in-one general manager software for college sports’ new era. Dropback is trusted by major programs across Power 4 conferences. It was founded by former engineers at Microsoft and Hudl and is the first NIL startup backed by Y Combinator.
PFF and Dropback partnership powers winning decisions in college sports’ revenue-sharing era
Vikes Views; Who Ya Got? Vikings at Bears
The Minnesota Vikings head to Soldier Field to take on the Chicago Bears. Head-to-Head Record – 66-57-2 Vikings Away Record vs the Bears – 27-33-2 Streak – L1 Most Points Scored – 48, Dec 6, 1998 Widest Margin of Victory – 31, 31-0 Oct 12, 1969 Most Recent Matchup – Bears 12 – Vikings 10, Nov 27, 2023 My 2024 Prediction Record: 7-3 2024 Vikes Views Poll Record: 8-2 The last time they played: Josh Dobbs and TJ Hockenson combined for the only TD of the game. The Bears scored 4 FGs including one of the game winning drive by Justin Fields. Both teams were under 200 yards net passing and it was an ugly game. No Jefferson and both Fields and Dobbs had more than 30 pass attempts. Interesting Tidbits from the Vikings Weekly Release: Kevin O’Connell is tied for the 5th best record through 44 games amongst active Head Coaches (.636). He is behind LaFleur (.795), Jim Harbaugh (.739), Sirianni (.727) and McVay (.705). John Harbaugh and Tomlin had the same record at this point in their coaching careers. Minnesota also owns a league-best 62-point margin in first quarters this season, ahead of second ranked San Francisco (36-point margin). The Vikings’ mark is the tied for the sixth-highest point margin through 10 games in the NFL since 2000. The Vikings are 8-0 this season when they rush for more yards than their opponent. In Week 11, Minnesota recorded 82 yards on the ground, while Tennessee had 33. The Vikings’ 420-yard rush differential ranks sixth in the NFL through Week 11. The Vikings are averaging 7.61 passing yards per play, the fifth most in the NFL this season. They are the lone team represented in the top five in passing yards per play that does not rank in the top 10 in passing yards per game. The Vikings eight different players with a receiving touchdown through 10 games matches their season total from 2023. Since 2000, Minnesota has only had more players with a receiving touchdown on three occasions – 2014 (nine players), 2020 (10) and 2022 (10). Minnesota has completed 39 passes of 20+ yards through 10 games this season, totaling the second-most in the NFL to start the season. The Vikings only trail divisional foe Detroit (40 completions of 20+ yards). Over the past three weeks (Weeks 9-11), Minnesota has led the NFL in total first downs (81 first downs), ahead of second-ranked Cincinnati (77). The Vikings Defense is 1st in the league in Interceptions (16), Interceptions/Attempt (4.3%), Takeaways (21), Rushing Yards/Game (74.4) and 4th Down % (31.6%). The Vikings defense is 2nd in the league in Defensive Points Scored (18), Points Allowed (161) and Yards/Rush (3.6) The Vikings have contacted opposing rushers behind the line of scrimmage on 46.2% of carries this season, the third most in the NFL this season (Buffalo and Kansas City), and have only allowed 154 yards before contact this season, which ranks second in the NFL behind Miami (146 yards before contact). How I See it Playing Out The Bears are bad. Their QB is young and not ready. Their coach is bad and should’ve been fired last year. Anyone laughing at the Vikings getting Kwesi instead of Poles a few years ago should feel foolish. Their OL isn’t good and a little beat up. It’s hard to see how the Bears win. However, the Vikings never win easy. Even if I try to call for it, the best we get from them is last week. So, should the Vikings dominate this game and win by 20? Yes, it should be 30-10. It’s in Chicago, the team is on an “easy” part of their schedule. It’s easy to get complacent. However, I trust KOC. I think they came out flat against Jacksonville and almost lost. It woke them up. I think it’s 21-0 at half. Addison scored in Chicago last year and I think he gets two this year. The Vikings lazily finish it off. Vikings 27 – Bears 13
Chiefs-Panthers Thursday injury report: Pacheco, Omenihu remain limited
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NFL Week 12 Recap: Cleveland Browns 24, Pittsburgh Steelers 19
The Cleveland Browns kicked off Week 12 with a 24-19 victory over the Pittsburgh Steelers at Huntington Bank Field on Thursday evening. Premium Content Sign Up NFL Week 12 Recap: Cleveland Browns 24, Pittsburgh Steelers 19 2YMK338 Cleveland Browns quarterback Jameis Winston (5) passes in the second half of an NFL football game against the Pittsburgh Steelers, Thursday, Nov. 21, 2024, in Cleveland. (AP Photo/Sue Ogrocki) By PFF Editorial Team Posted Nov 21, 2024 11:28 pm EST • Cleveland Browns • Pittsburgh Steelers The Cleveland Browns kicked off Week 12 with a 24-19 victory over the Pittsburgh Steelers at a snowy Huntington Bank Field on Thursday evening. In a game with heavy snow, both offenses struggled on the ground but surprisingly, both passers were able to find some success threw the air, as Russell Wilson went 21 of 28 for 270 passing yards and a touchdown while Jameis Winston finished 18 of 27 for 219 passing yards and an interception. PFF’s dedicated team of graders was hard at work, analyzing every player on every play in real time. The grades and data will be available after a thorough review tomorrow at 12 p.m. EST. In the meantime, we’ve gathered some high-level data and snap counts from the game to give you an early look. Our expert graders have also nominated the standout player of the game, highlighting exceptional performance on the field. Sign up for PFF+ for in-depth analysis, PFF grades, Premium Stats, fantasy football tools, betting dashboards and much more! HIGHEST-GRADED PLAYERS EDGE Nick Herbig, Pittsburgh Steelers (93.3) DI Cameron Heyward, Pittsburgh Steelers (91.3) G Shelby Harris, Cleveland Browns (89.8) Note: Follow along with PFF’s in-game grading as our analysts evaluate every player on every play in real time! Grades will then be relocked 90 minutes after the final whistle as our first-run analysis is reviewed. Click here to see PFF’s initial grades from this game! PLAYER OF THE GAME Even in a losing effort, Steelers EDGE Nick Herbig put forth a tremendous effort, as Herbig benefitted from all the attention paid to T.J. Watt. As a pass-rusher, Herbig finished with a team-high 26.3% pass-rush win rate, three pressures, one sack, one forced fumble and two pass-rush wins that didn’t result in a pressure. Herbig wasn’t a one-trick pony either, as he made a tremendous impact against the run as well, totaling three stops and an assist. ADVANCED BOX SCORE
Rams Film Review: Can Sean McVay carry offensive success against the Eagles?
Photo by Billie Weiss/Getty Images The Rams are finding their groove as key players like Davis Allen, Omar Speights, and Kam Kinchens step up The Los Angeles Rams have an important game this week against the Philadelphia Eagles. By this time in the season, teams won’t be leaving things on the table as they make a push for the postseason. That will certainly be the case for the Rams who are currently on the outside looking in at 5-5. Over the past few weeks, the Rams have shown bits and pieces of what might be coming. That was especially the case on Sunday against the New England Patriots. Here is this week’s film review. Rams offense needs more Davis Allen A player that was expected to take a big step forward this season was tight end Davis Allen. Through the first 11 games, Allen only has six receptions — five of which came against the Miami Dolphins. With that said, there are signs that point to Allen getting more involved in the offense. In each of the last three games, Allen has played more than 50 percent of the offensive snaps. However, it’s not just how much Allen has played in those games that’s significant. The significant part is what Allen has done over the past three weeks. He hasn’t necessarily taken over games, but he has been effective in his role, especially as a blocker. In the past three games, Allen ranks as the sixth-best run-blocking tight end in the NFL via PFF. It’s well known that McVay appreciates good blocking and that is an area in which Allen has significantly improved. Can only hope that the Rams run game begins to look more like this. Block from Beaux Limmer, Steve Avila, and Davis Allen turn this run from Kyren Williams into an explosive play. pic.twitter.com/TgD1QZ9fuM — Blaine Grisak (@bgrisakTST) November 21, 2024 While it would be nice to see Allen used more in the passing game, utilizing the second-year tight end in 12 personnel has been working. It will be interesting to see how McVay rotates the tight ends once Tyler Higbee returns. Omar Speights as a blitzer The Rams have eased linebacker Omar Speights into the defense since he was entered into the starting lineup four weeks ago. He started as a player that was primarily used on running downs and in the red zone. Speights’ snap count and responsibilities have gone up every week and that was evident again on Sunday against the Patriots. After not being used as a blitzing linebacker at all through the first three games, Speights came on a blitz four times in Week 11. The undrafted rookie was very efficient here as he had three pressures on four pass rush snaps. On the play below, he’s the player that gets through and forces Drake Maye to throw the ball out of the back of the end zone. Rams don’t show initial blitz, but it’s a double-A gap pressure with Rozeboom and Speights. Speights was used a lot as a blitzer last week. His pressure here forces Maye to throw this out the back of the end zone. pic.twitter.com/liFE72usqf — Blaine Grisak (@bgrisakTST) November 21, 2024 This is something that the Rams did quite often with Ernest Jones. It will be interesting to see if that type of usage continues the rest of the season for Speights. Kam Kinchens is becoming more disciplined with experience One of the biggest concerns that I had about Kam Kinchens coming out of Miami was his tendency to take bad angles in the open field. This happened a few times early in the season and was a reason for a few explosive runs on the Rams defense. The start to Kinchens’ rookie season had some rough moments which led to him playing more special teams in Week 5 and 6. Since being inserted back into the lineup, things have seemed to click for Kinchens. He had his third interception of the season to clinch the game. However, it was his tackling in the open field that was the most impressive which can be seen in the clips below. A concern that I had with Rams rookie safety Kam Kinchens coming out of the draft and early this year was his tendency to take bad angles on ball carriers in space. On both plays here, he does a good job coming across the field and stopping the ball carrier immediately. pic.twitter.com/3luEHWCvte — Blaine Grisak (@bgrisakTST) November 21, 2024 He is the first rookie since 2000 with an interception, tackle for loss, forced fumble and five-or-more tackles in a game. Kinchens also became the first rookie defensive back ever to win multiple Defensive Player of the Week awards Tyler Davis is an underrated rookie in Rams draft class In most rookie classes, a hit in the sixth round would be considered a highlight. The crazy part is, while Tyler Davis is having a good rookie season, he may be the fifth best rookie in the class and not even the best from the sixth round. Davis has played a key role in the Rams defensive line rotation, especially against the run. The Rams have had such a good rookie class and not a lot has been said about Tyler Davis. Davis ranks 12th among DL in run stops and is tied for the most among rookies with Jer’Zhan Newton who has also played almost twice as many snaps. pic.twitter.com/4nKhmFPoe2 — Blaine Grisak (@bgrisakTST) November 21, 2024 Davis currently leads rookie defensive linemen in run-stop percentage and is tied for eighth in the NFL. This is the final year of Bobby Brown III’s contract and there is reason to believe that Davis could step into that role full time next season. Honorable Mention – Chris Shula’s Creative Fronts Chris Shula deserves a lot of credit for how creative he has been with the Rams defensive front. He does a really good job moving players like Michael Hoecht, Jared
Steelers HC Mike Tomlin on former Ravens ILB Patrick Queen: ‘One man’s trash is another man’s treasure’
Steelers HC Mike Tomlin on former Ravens ILB Patrick Queen: ‘One man’s trash is another man’s treasure’ Kevin Oestreicher The Baltimore Ravens saw inside linebacker Patrick Queen move on to the Pittsburgh Steelers during the 2024 offseason. A lot has been made about Queen’s departure, especially by the inside linebacker himself. Mike Tomlin spoke about Queen and his performance after Pittsburgh’s 18-16 win over Baltimore. He said that one man’s trash is another man’s treasure and expressed his joy that Queen is now on his side. Queen made multiple splash plays against his former team, which helped the Steelers secure a much-needed victory. The Ravens will see Queen again before the regular season ends, giving them an opportunity for revenge.
Week 11 Colts Defensive Rankings and Analysis:
Brad Penner-Imagn Images Each week during the season, I will be walking through the data from the previous Colts game and analyzing the numbers to form a sort of “what happened” narrative, as well as comparing the Colts against all other teams in the league. For a glossary of the stats listed, reference Season Stats. Thanks to Pro Football Reference, NFL.com, Football Outsiders, and the nflFastR project for being awesome sources of weekly data. On the first 5 Jets’ drives, the Colts defense was perfect, forcing 5 three-and-outs and an average of only 5.4 yards per drive. Unfortunately, they softened a bit right before the half, giving up a 76 yard touchdown and then allowing 4 more scores in the 2nd half. However, 2 of those scoring drives were a result of short fields due to an Anthony Richardson sack fumble and a poor Rigoberto Sanchez punt paired with a fair catch interference call, so there wasn’t much the defense could do about that. Overall, the Colts held the Jets to 253 yards of total offense and a 55.6% Drive DSR which is a 94th percentile defensive effort. So despite giving up 27 points, the defense played well. TEAM TOTALS (Use the right-left arrows to toggle between stats for the week and the season). Mouseover for definitions: Adj PPD, Team PPG, Off PPG, Yds, P/R%, DSR, yds/srs, Strt Fld, xOPPD, yds/ply, EPA/ply, adj TSR, 1st/ply, Pen 1st/ Yds, 3DC, 3rd ytg, Expl Plys, TO, TOP% In most weeks, giving up 2.25 points per drive isn’t good, but so many offenses went off in week 11 that the Colts defense ranks 11th. They earned the 3rd best defensive DSR, the 7th best defensive yards per play, the 2nd best overall defensive conversion rate (9th best on 3rd downs) and the 7th lowest opponent success rate. It was often the Jets starting field position (3rd shortest fields) that allowed them to score even though the Colts were pretty good at shutting them down. On the year, I have the Colts defense tied for 13th in defensive PPD and 17th in DSR. DVOA has them ranked 17th, so that lines up. PASS TOTALS (Use the right-left arrows to toggle between stats for the week and the season). Mouseover definitions: EPA/db, PSR, Cmp, Att, Yds, TD, Int, Sk, Sk Y, 1st/db, ny/d, cmp %, aDOT, cpoe, YBC, YAC, 20+ #/Yd Aaron Rodgers has been having a tough year and the Colts’ defense made it tougher. The Jets had the 6th worst passing by EPA per dropback and the 2nd worst Pass Success Rate. With the worst passing conversion rate of any QB, Rodgers could not move the chains. That is no real surprise since he had the 5th lowest net yards per dropback of the week. On the season, the passing defense jumps 2 spots to 14th by defensive EPA/d and 17th in defensive PSR. DVOA is not nearly so optimistic ranking the Colts pass defense at 22nd. DVOA is adjusted for opponent, so that probably explains the difference. RUSH TOTALS (Use the right-left arrows to toggle between stats for the week and the season). Mouseover definitions: adj RSR, Yds, Car, TD, 1st, Fum Lost, RSR, 1st/c, YPC, 10+ #/Yd, 3rd, 3DC, epa/c, The Colts were not as successful against the run, but they weren’t horrible. They gave up the 6th lowest conversion rate, but allowed 2 explosive rushes for 34 yards and a TD. With only 19 carries that skews the EPA per carry a lot and the Jets managed the 6th best EPA per carry in week 11. For the week, I have the Colts at 15th against the run and on the year, they sit at 11th. DVOA has them 16th, which feels a little more right to me. CONCLUSION & LOOK AHEAD The Jets are a bad offense, so I’m not going to pretend like this was some heroic defensive effort. However, I’m not going to take anything away from them either. They did their job and did it pretty well. Next up, the Colts go from one of the worst offenses in the league to arguably the best. The Detroit Lions score the most Points per Drive in the league and they do it with the 2nd best Drive Success Rate. They average just shy of 400 yards a game (3rd most 394.7) and lead the NFL in explosive plays. Their passing earns the 4th highest EPA per dropback and the 2nd highest Passing Success Rate. They average almost 8 yards per dropback (2nd best 7.9 yards) which helps them secure the best passing conversion rate in the NFL, getting first downs on over 41% of their pass plays. They run game is even better. I rank them #1 in adj Rush Success Rate to go along with the #1 EPA per carry and a #1 DVOA rank. This is going to be a nightmare.
TNF open thread: Steelers-Browns gambling lines and picks
Russell Wilson | Photo by Joe Sargent/Getty Images An AFC North battle to start the week Week 12 in the NFL season starts with an AFC North battle as the Pittsburgh Steelers take on the Cleveland Browns. After beating the Ravens last week, the Steelers are in the driver’s seat to win the division with a game-and-a-half lead over Baltimore heading into tonight. Pittsburgh is also red hot coming into the game, having won five in a row. Meanwhile, the Browns are trending in the opposite direction and are looking to play spoiler at 2-8. This is your place to discuss the game with other Las Vegas Raiders fans and any gambling picks you have as the lines below are provided by FanDuel Sportsbook. Steelers vs. Browns [Lines below are as of 11/20 at 3:00 p.m. PST] Spread: PIT -3.5 O/U: 36.5 PIT ML: -185 CLE ML: +154 Holder’s picks: CLE +3.5, Over 36.5, PIT ML I’m going with a hedge here as I think the Steelers will still get the job done, but this does feel like a trap game for them. It’s a road contest on a short week and the team is coming off a big win last Sunday against the Ravens. Plus, it’s a divisional matchup where the Browns will undoubtedly like to play spoiler. For the injury report, Pittsburgh has ruled the following players out at the time of writing: defensive back Cory Trice Jr. (hamstring), and outside linebacker Alex Highsmith (ankle). Cleveland will be without tight end Geoff Swaim (concussion) and offensive tackle Jedrick Wills (knee). Head to the comments section to share your thoughts and join the conversation. You can sign up for a commenting account below and we have full-time moderators to enforce the Community Guidelines.
Bills fans had perfect ‘Buffalo’ sign in crowd vs. the Chiefs
Bills fans had perfect ‘Buffalo’ sign in crowd vs. the Chiefs Bills fans had perfect ‘Buffalo’ sign in crowd vs. the Chiefs Nick Wojton Bills fans had a great time in the crowd watching their team beat the Chiefs, 30-21, on Sunday. The Week 11 win sent players and fans alike into their bye week in a good mood. But even before the win was locked up, the Buffalo faithful were positive and giving it to the Chiefs in the stands at Highmark Stadium. No one more than this group. ESPN NFL Reporter Jeff Darlington shared a photo of a perfect “Buffalo” sign in the stands that was aimed at Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes. It was nothing rude or nasty, but a perfect joke: “Mahomes eats boneless wings with ranch.” Nailed it. Check it out below: Read all the best Bills coverage at the Democrat and Chronicle and Bills Wire.
Point Differential and Playoff Teams- What Difference Does It Make?
Filed under: Point Differential and Playoff Teams- What Difference Does It Make? Does piling on in garbage time really help playoff success? By Nov 21, 2024, 6:37pm CST As the Minnesota Vikings completed their sweep of the AFC South with a 23-13 win over the Titans, the Detroit Lions curb-stomped the Jaguars 52-6 – a team the Vikings struggled to prevail against the previous week 12-7. And the Lions put up 52 points against the Titans as well in another curb-stomping. The Vikings did manage to blowout the Texans 34-7, the only team in the AFC South with a winning record, while the Lions were lucky to get out of Houston with a 26-23 win. Overall, the Lions hold a commanding lead in point differential across the league at +159, with the Bills the only other team above one hundred at +106. 122 of the Lions’ 159-point differential came in blowouts against the Cowboys, Titans, and Jaguars- three teams likely to be picking in the top ten in next year’s draft. Still, blowing out the bottom feeders- rather than beating them in closer games like the Vikings have- is a sign of strength and a bona fide Super Bowl favorite- right? After all, the Lions are now the favorite to win the Super Bowl this year after that blowout of the Jags (and the Chiefs losing to the Bills). Certainly as Vikings’ fans we’d feel better about our team’s chances by curb-stomping the cellar-dwellers of the AFC South like the Lions have, rather than these lame single-digit average point margin victories. Point Differential and Playoff Success But at the end of the day, what difference does point differential make when it comes to what really matters- success in the playoffs? The short answer is not much. The top team in point differential doesn’t usually win the Super Bowl. Over the last ten Super Bowls, only three times has the team with the best point differential won, the last coming in 2017, when the Eagles won although they were actually tied with the Patriots for best point differential. The Patriots had the best point differential in 2014 and 2016 when they won the Super Bowl. Super Bowl participants usually have a +100 or better point differential, the exceptions being the Chiefs last season, the 2021 Rams and Bengals, and the 2015 Broncos over the past ten seasons. Also, teams with a lower point differential under 50 tend not to make it that far in the post season and usually only beat teams with a low point differential. In that sense, a relatively low point differential is a much stronger negative indicator of playoff performance than high point differential is a strong indicator of playoff success. High Point Differential Warning Sign Playoff teams with high positive point differential in recent years that did not fare well in the playoffs shared something that should worry Lions fans: they blew-out bad teams but had more mixed success against better teams and the results were close. The 2023 Cowboys, the 2022 Bills, the 2021 Cowboys, the 2021 Bills, the 2020 Ravens, and the 2019 Patriots all led their conference in point differential, most of which came in blowouts of bad teams, but made early exits from the playoffs. Better, but Imperfect, Predictors of Playoff Success So, while point differential is a flawed indicator of playoff success, in large part because blowouts of bad teams can overstate a team’s strength against other playoff teams, there are some other indicators that have a good track record of forecasting playoff success. Playoff Seeding The best one is playoff seeding. #1 seeds win the Super Bowl just over half the time since playoff seeding began for the 1976 season, including five of the last ten. However, the top seed in either conference has only won one of the last six Super Bowls, so maybe that’s not as good a predictor as it once was. Clearly having a first-round bye and home field throughout the conference championship is a significant advantage, but obviously not a decisive one in every instance. Second seeds have had the second-most success in winning Super Bowls, but that has likely changed now that second seeds no longer get a first-round bye. Fourth seeds have the third best track record at winning Super Bowls, while the others have only won it 2-3 times each except seventh seeds which have never won. Another downside of playoff seeding is that you don’t know it until a week or two before the postseason and it can be difficult to gauge during the ‘any given Sunday’ NFL season. EPA-Based Team Tiers – with a Garbage Time Filter I went through some recent history going back to 2018 to see how EPA-based team metrics for overall offense and defense work in forecasting teams that make it to the conference championships. I found that after experimenting with four different garbage time filters (10%, 16%, 20%, 30%), using the 10% garbage time filter, which excludes plays when the expected win percentage is over 90% or less than 10%, produced the best results over time- albeit still imperfect ones. But using a garbage time filter almost always improved the results. 2023 Season A 30% garbage time filter did a better job of predicting last year’s conference championship teams than the 10% filter shown underneath, as it improved the tiers for both the Lions and Chiefs. 2022 Season The 10-90% garbage time filter did the best job of any (or no) filter in predicting the teams that made it to the conference championship in 2022. 2021 Season No filter did a good job predicting the 2021 conference championship teams. The biggest issue was the Bengals, although none did a good job of filtering out the Packers, Cards, Cowboys, and Bills either. 2020 Season The 90-10% filter did a good job in 2020 of predicting the conference championship teams, although no garbage time filter did well too. 2019 Season The Titans were not predicted by
