Double coverage? Doesn’t matter. | Photo by David Berding/Getty Images A look inside the fantasy football crystal ball Labor Day weekend has come and gone, so I feel like I can finally say it: Welcome to the 2024 NFL season! You’ve drafted most of your teams, and now it’s time to lock in your Week 1 lineups and cross your fingers. Buckle up — one thing I’ve learned from playing fantasy football for 30+ years is that you never know what’s going to happen once the ref blows the whistle. Before we get started, my Week 1 Fantasy Preview column, with my rides, fades, and sleepers, will publish this Thursday, right here at Big Blue View. It’ll be a weekly Thursday feature, and my Waiver Wire columns will run each Monday, starting next week. So keep it right here! Today I’m going to share 15 not-so-bold fantasy football predictions for the 2024 season. Throwing down a few predictions is always fun, and there are no consequences for being wildly off-target with hot takes. But I’ll tell you what — if I’m wrong about more than half of these, you get your money back. Last year, I didn’t get a single prediction wrong! But that’s only because I didn’t write a predictions column. I went back and looked at my not-so-bold predictions from the 2022 season, and I wish I hadn’t. What a mess. My first prediction was correct: That Deebo Samuel would regress after his massive 2021 season and finish outside the Top-10 WRs. My second prediction was that Kyle Pitts would lead all TEs in a bunch of stats (ugh)…and it went downhill from there. So with all of that said, here are 15 fresh predictions for this season. They’re “not-so-bold” because they aren’t outlandish. I’d give each one at least a 30% chance of happening. Photo by Ryan Kang/Getty ImagesI’ve got Kupp a little higher than Puka Cooper Kupp will outscore Puka Nacua in all PPR and standard formats. I’m not alone on this one, and when discussing Kupp in my players to target column I noted that you can get him two or three rounds later than Nacua. Puka is dealing with a sore knee, and while Kupp is over 30, he appears to be fully healthy and his and connection with Matt Stafford is undeniable. Kupp won’t win the triple crown like he did in 2021, but I’m feeling a very big season from him. 2. Justin Jefferson will lead all wide receivers in targets and catches. Sam Darnold has scared away a lot of people. Were people really all that confident in rookie J.J. McCarthy making Jefferson the No. 1 WR again? Jefferson has shown in the past that he is QB-proof, and with T.J. Hockenson slated to miss significant time to start the season and Jordan Addison banged up and possibly staring at a suspension, who else is Darnold going to throw to? Jefferson’s volume is going to be nuts. 3. Malik Nabers will lead all rookie wide receivers in targets, catches, and fantasy points. I know, his QB is Daniel Jones. And this could be close with Marvin Harrison, Jr. and a few other rookies in position to start and be big cogs right away. I’ll still bet on Nabers, who’s going to be the focal point of the Giants’ passing offense, and looked uncoverable in camp. 4. Brian Thomas, Jr. will be the No. 1 fantasy scorer among the Jacksonville pass-catchers. I believe in the talent, and reports out of camp were glowing. While we are here, two other rookies not named Harrison or Nabers who I think have a legitimate shot at doing this on their respective teams are Keon Coleman and Ladd McConkey. Photo by Kevin Sabitus/Getty ImagesI’m all-in on the Heisman winner 5. Speaking of Thomas…Trevor Lawrence will have his first finish as a QB1 (Top-12). Lawrence has an ADP in the QB16-18 range, but I’m feeling a big bounce back from the disappointment of 2023. He had all kinds of bad luck and some injuries last season, and I think Jacksonville’s defense will be below average. The AFC South is full of teams that can score, and Jacksonville is one of them. Expect Trevor to be in his share of shootouts. 6. Jayden Daniels will outscore Caleb Williams, and finish the season as a Top-10 QB and the top rookie at the position. The rushing floor almost assures this if he can stay healthy. And that’s the bet – that he plays at least 15 games. While we’re here I’ll give you a bonus WR prediction: Terry McLaurin will finish as a Top-15 WR, and people will start calling him Scary Terry again. Last year, he couldn’t even have scare Shaggy and Scooby. 7. Will Levis will significantly outperform his ADP, and finish as a borderline QB1 in deeper leagues (14-18 teams). I’m all-in on the AFC South having four quarterbacks you can count on this season. Photo by Cooper Neill/Getty ImagesBreece Hall is locked and loaded for a big year 8. Josh Jacobs will finish the season as a Top-5 RB. He did it once before (2022), on a much worse offense. 9. Derrick Henry, in his age 30 season, will have the best yards-per-carry average of his career (previous best: 5.4 in 2020). I think box safeties are going to have actual nightmares before they play Baltimore. 10. It will only take one week for Breece Hall to have more carries inside the 5-yard line than the ONE that he had ALL of last season. That actually happened, people. What the actual…The real prediction here is that Hall will lead the NFL in yards from scrimmage in 2024. Book it! Photo by Christian Petersen/Getty ImagesThe TE position is loaded with talent in ‘24 11. At least three tight ends will have at least 100 catches this season (the last time more than one tight end had 100 catches in a season was 2020, when two
Fantasy Football ‘24: 15 not-so-bold predictions
Test your Eagles knowledge with BGN’s new daily trivia game
Think you can figure out which Eagles player we’re talking about? You’ll get five clues to figure him out in our new guessing game! Game week is here, but we’re adding something to the mix that we hope will be a little fun this week. SB Nation’s product team has been playing around with a new daily trivia game and we get to be a beta test site for it! The goal of the game is to guess the correct Eagles player with the help of up to five clues. We’ll mix in both active and retired players. It won’t be easy to figure it out in one or two guesses, but some of you might be able to nail it. The game will appear in slot #3 of the BGN layout each day this week, with a new article each day for the game. Additionally, there is a more general version of this at SBNation.com, which will feature a variety of random players that do not necessarily have Eagles history. After you correctly guess the player, you can click “Share Results” to share how you did down in the comments and on social media. We won’t go into other details about the game as we’d like your feedback on it. How it plays, what you think of it, the difficulty level, and anything else you can think of that will help us improve this game. You can provide feedback in the comments of this article, or you can fill out this Google Form. What we need from you Play the game Share your result in the comments and on social media Provide feedback (Google Form or in comments below) Bleeding Green Nation in-5
The Linc – Eagles working to remove “counterfeit political ads”
Photo by Fred Kfoury III/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images Philadelphia Eagles news and links for 9/3/24. Let’s get to the Philadelphia Eagles links … Eagles working to remove ‘counterfeit’ political ads in Philadelphia – 6ABCA bus stop sign at 34th and Walnut streets in University City shows Kamala Harris wearing an Eagles helmet with the text “official candidate of the Philadelphia Eagles.” To some, it might seem official. Along with the Eagles logo, the ad also sends people to a real, nonpartisan voting information website: PhiladelphiaEagles.com/vote. There is no mention of either candidate on the website. Other signs around the city have also been spotted, but the Eagles want to stress they are not real. “We are aware counterfeit political ads are being circulated and are working with our advertising partner to have them removed,” officials said in a statement. NFL Week 1 odds have the Eagles favored against the Packers on a neutral field – BGNNFL Weeks 1 odds have long been available by this point but, hey, I’d say the subject is especially topical now since … game week is FINALLY HERE! That’s right, your Philadelphia Eagles are kicking off their 2024 season with a “home” game against the Green Bay Packers in São Paulo, Brazil this Friday night. The Birds are currently three-point favorites at this neutral field location, according to FanDuel. This means the Eagles would likely be six-point favorites if the game was instead taking place at Lincoln Financial Field, since home field advantage is generally worth three points. NFC Hierarchy/Obituary: Week 1 edition – PhillyVoice3) Eagles (11-6 in 2023): The Eagles are a hard team to figure out for some folks this offseason. On the one hand, they’re coming off an epic collapse to close the 2023 season, during which the underqualified coordinators were exposed, the quarterback fell into a rut, some young core players were out of shape, the pass rush died, and every solution they tried only made things worse. In the aftermath, Jason Kelce and Fletcher Cox retired. On the other hand, Jalen Hurts had the best training camp of his career in 2024, the new coordinators are adults, the rushing attack should be better with Saquon Barkley and a healthy Hurts, and there is so much talent otherwise on the roster, with guys like A.J. Brown, DeVonta Smith, Lane Johnson, Jordan Mailata, and Landon Dickerson all in their prime years, and Jalen Carter about to enter his. Ultimately, I believe the Eagles are a well-run organization, and they’ll bounce back. They’ll also have the benefit of a far easier schedule this season. My first bet: Early picks for NFL Week 1 – ESPNAndre Snellings first bet: Green Bay Packers +3.0 over Philadelphia Eagles (-120). Jalen Hurts didn’t play at all this preseason and for the second year in a row he’ll start the season with a new offense under a new offensive coordinator. The Packers are getting the full 3 points at ESPN BET right now, even though the Eagles won’t really have home field advantage with the game to be played in Sao Paulo, Brazil. While I expect the Eagles to look better than the team that lost six of their last seven games last season, they’ll be facing a Packers squad that ended last year on fire as Jordan Love took flight in his first year starting under center. Love enters this year with a full complement of exciting young wide receivers healthy, raising the ceiling for the Packers’ offense and increasing the likelihood they start the season on a high note. Rival coaches believe Eagles may struggle to replace legends: ‘(He) makes this whole operation work’ – NJ.com“(Fletcher and Jason) became dinosaurs and unicorns,” Washington Commanders defensive line coach Darryl Tapp, who played three years (2010-2012) with the Eagles, told NJ Advance Media in April. “I say that because it’s very rare an NFL athlete gets to start and finish their career in one place. It’s very rare when an athlete in this day and age has a career that lasts over seven years. So they have accomplished both of those feats.” Tapp, who was hired by the Commanders in February, is glad that he doesn’t have to game plan for Kelce anymore. As the former assistant defensive line coach of the San Francisco 49ers, Tapp has played against Kelce three times (two regular-season games and the 2023 NFC Championship Game) since 2021. “He is all you prepare for,” Tapp said. “I truly believe that Jason (was) probably the most important person on that offense. You can call me crazy. But having that chance to go against him the last three years, he is the guy who makes this whole operation work because he can read defenses. … He made everything work seamlessly.” Eagles notebook: Saquon’s appreciation for Jacobs, Covey’s role and more – NBCSPFor the last two seasons, Britain Covey has been a popular guy in the Eagles’ locker room and in the receiver meeting room. Part of his role is to lighten the mood and he does that with aplomb. Star receiver DeVonta Smith recently handed out a big compliment to Covey. “He’s the light of the room,” Smith said. “In the room, he’s always the guy keeping the spirits up, no matter if anybody is having a bad day, he’s going to be the guy to make sure that everybody in the room is having fun. Whoever it is who may be down a day, he doesn’t continue to let them feel that way.” From the outside, Smith and Covey are very different. One was a Heisman Trophy winner and early first-round pick. The other was an undrafted rookie a few years ago and finally made the 53-man roster out of training camp for the first time in 2024. But Smith and Covey are close. Aside from both being fathers to young children, they’re two of the smallest players on the team. They joke about that a lot. “He probably weighs a little
Community Convo: Which non-divisional opponent do you want to see the Browns beat?
Denny Medley-USA TODAY Sports The Browns schedule has some big names The Cleveland Browns returned from their holiday weekend to the practice field yesterday in Berea. The team is now in full regular-season mode as they prepare to welcome the Dallas Cowboys to town on Sunday. While the week-one matchup will tough, Cleveland remains the favorite according to Vegas. The Browns schedule overall will make for tough sledding, especially down the stretch as they face a gauntlet of elite quarterbacks in addition to our division rivals. Today’s conversation starter and question deals with the games on our schedule against teams not within the AFC North division. Which non-divisional squad on the schedule would you like to see the Browns beat the most? Would you feel good if they could pull off a convincing win against Dallas on Sunday? Maybe seeing the Browns defeat the Chiefs would assure you they could compete for a Super Bowl. Now let’s look at the non-division games on the schedule and you can decide for yourself. Week 1 vs Dallas Cowboys Week 2 at Jacksonville Jaguars Week 3 vs New York Giants Week 4 at Las Vegas Raiders Week 5 at Washington Commanders Week 6 at Philadelphia Eagles Week 9 vs LA Chargers Week 11 at New Orleans Saints Week 13 at Denver Broncos Week 15 vs Kansas City Chiefs Week 17 vs Miami Dolphins Let us know who you want the Browns to beat most in the comments below and why. You will find my answer and reason there and it may come as a bit of a surprise.
Bengals ranked among top Super Bowl contenders
Photo by Jason Mowry/Getty Images The return of a healthy Joe Burrow is a big reason why. It is finally Week 1 of the NFL season, and the Cincinnati Bengals are preparing for a matchup with the New England Patriots this Sunday. Paycor Stadium will be rocking as the Bengals look to start their run back to the Super Bowl this coming February, and according to a new ranking heading into game week, they have a decent chance. Ralph Vacchiano of Fox Sports recently ranked his most likely Super Bowl LIX winners and explained why they would win. Taking No. 6 on the list, the Bengals are also the third favorite in the AFC listed behind Kansas City (No. 1) and the Baltimore Ravens (No. 4). The biggest reason this team has a shot? The reason Vacchiano gives shouldn’t be a shock to anyone… the return of Joe Burrow. “When Joe Burrow is healthy, the Bengals have a chance to win it all. It’s that simple. He’s made it all the way through the season twice — in 2021 and 2022. In those seasons, the Bengals made the AFC Championship Game twice and the Super Bowl once. Don’t worry about Zack Moss trying to replace Joe Mixon at running back or losing No. 3 receiver Tyler Boyd to Tennessee or the defense that ranked 31st last season or … Look, it’s all about Joe Burrow, OK? The guy just wins.” The Bengals have seemingly become the one team in the AFC that could slow down and defeat Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs over the last few seasons when they meet in the playoffs. With a healthy Joe Burrow and an improved defense, it seems that could be the case once again this season if the two teams meet. Well, at least that’s what we hope. But first we need to see this team go and beat this Patriots squad. Who Dey!
Breaking down Anthony Richardson’s final preseason game and what he needs to fix
Photo by Justin Casterline/Getty Images A few days have passed since the Colts’ last preseason game and there was a a lot of chatter about Richardson’s performance, with an overwhelming amount being negative. Throw 1 Richardson made the right read, but was late and behind on the throw. Had it been earlier and in stride, the result would’ve been a bit better. The theme of being a bit late on his thrown has been seen throughout the preseason from Richardson. Below is a screenshot with advanced graphic designs to show that not only are Richardson’s shoulder and hip alignment not in sync, but they are not aligned to the ideal target area. Throw 2 The second throw was a screen pass that was blown up beautifully from the Bengals defensive tackle. Throw 3 The third throw is a great example of how a great pre-snap read can make all the difference. He read the blitz perfectly, threw his hot read right away and it led to the first down. Throw 4 Richardson throwing RPOs in rhythm is a beautiful thing to watch and is one of the best things he does. Steichen needs to dial these up early and often because RPOs are a set of plays that Richardson consistently performs well with. Throw 5 Same thing as Play 5 as he throws beautifully on RPOs. This RPO was on a bubble screen as opposed to a slant. Throw 6 Firstly, I love to see the crisp footwork on the deep play action drop. I also love the fact that he’s making the right progressions high to low. He clearly looks downfield first, almost makes a throw that would’ve certainly been forced and then catches himself and makes the smart easy completion underneath. He got the easy first down plus several free yards instead of forcing it down the field on 2nd and short. This is how you move the ball in the NFL. Throw 7 While the ball was slightly high, the timing was beautiful and the receiver should’ve caught the ball. The placement on this one was perfect and his body was seemingly perfectly aligned (unfortunately there isn’t a good angle to confirm the good alignment). He placed the ball in a spot where only the receiver can get it. Throw 8 Another great play here from Richardson, looking to his left first and seeing his initial read of the running back wheel taken away. He stays in the pocket, keeps his eyes downfield and finds Mitchell open on a drag/crossing route, hits him in stride and takes a hit in the process. The result was a touchdown and one of his best plays of the game. Throw 9 I like the fact that Richardson made two reads before going to his checkdown option running a quick out/arrow, but what i don’t like is feet are pointed down the field and don’t adjust when he readjusts. Going back to the elite graphics, you see that his shoulder alignment is decent and compared to the red line (the proper alignment to the ideal target zone), it’s in a relatively good spot, but his feet don’t move. He was initially aimed down the field as that’s where his first reads were, but as he moved closer and closer, he failed to readjust the feet and in this case it lead to a high and inaccurate. You can’t rely on just your arm to make throws. Throw 10 While everyone on social media jumped to blame Richardson on this throw, it’s quite clear that it’s a miscommunication between him and Granson. Granson is running an option route that allows him to sit (presumably if it’s against a zone and/or finds a cushiony area) or drift out of his break/route if it’s man, if it’s close to a linebacker’s hook/curl zone or if it’s match coverage. Richardson read it as a sit and Granson ended up drifting. The Bengals’ safety ends up cutting down as it’s a Cover 3 Robber coverage. As you can see in my graphic, corners are deep and drop, free safety drops and then the strong safety comes down into WILL linebacker’s zone as the WILL’s responsibility is the running back. Richardson most certainly did not see the safety come down, Granson read it well and drifted and that’s what led to the miscommunication and unfortunately the interception. The blame is on both players as they need to be on the same page. Throw 11 The first throw after the interception was a great one, but unfortunately it was dropped by Pittman. Throw 12 On this throw, it’s another example of a crossing route (horizontal throw) that Richardson fails to properly align to. The red circle below is the target zone, green star is the receiver Mitchell who is moving very quickly and two black arrow lines show the misalignment. The shoulders are aligned decently well, but the feet are way behind where the receiver needs to get the ball. What happens is Richardson has to rely on his arm only (quarterbacks throw with their body, not their arms) and when that happens, a variety of things can happen. In this case, you see that Richardson’s shoulders are slightly elevated, which is unnecessary beacuse it’s not a throw that requires any air so what will happen is the ball will sail on him, which it does. So his body is not properly aligned and his shoulders are elevated, so those two things will cause a lot of accuracy issues. Throw 13 Richardson just misses this throw to Mitchell, but mechanics were decent and the timing of it was relatively good. Throw 14 This was an incredible throw and as you can see, his body is perfectly aligned to his target zone/spot. When that happens, you’ll be as accurate as anyone. This throw also confirms to me that he is a much better vertical thrower than he is horizontal thrower as discussed earlier. Tucked in tight. #HOUvsIND |
Last chance to sign up for S&BP’s Pick’em Competition!
Las Vegas Raiders fans | Photo by Brandon Sloter/Getty Images Less than one week until the regular season starts! We are less than a week away from the NFL regular season starting and that also means Silver and Black Pride’s Pick’em Competition is about to begin! The Kansas City Chiefs will kick off the season by hosting the Baltimore Ravens (go Ravens) next Thursday at 5:20 p.m. which will also be the first game of our competition. So, make sure you mark that on your calendar as the last thing you want is to lose the competition on one pick. Also, don’t forget about the Friday night game in Brazil between the Green Bay Packers and Philadelphia Eagles during the opening week. We still have a few spots left in the S&BP Pick’em Competition, but you need to act quickly if you want to participate. At the time of writing, we only have 32 spots remaining. Sign-up instructions are below. Sign-up steps: Go to football.fantasysports.yahoo.com/pickem or click this link Click the ‘Join a Group’ button at about the middle of the page (you may need to make a Yahoo account if you don’t already have one) On the right side of the screen where it says ‘Join Private Group’, enter 13582 as the GROUP ID# and Raiders24 as the PASSWORD and click the ‘Join Group’ button Then, you can get a jump start on your picks for the season opener! One note, please only sign up if you plan on making picks throughout the season. As mentioned above, we have limited spots available so please don’t take a spot from someone else if you’re not going to have the time to make picks every week. We’ll provide a weekly post on the site throughout the season with updates on the standings so you can see how you’re stacking up against the competition. We look forward to continuing this tradition and remember to sign up soon to reserve your spot!
Best bet to make on every NFL team this season (including the Bills)
After an offseason that always feels like an eternity, football is finally back. The 2024 regular season gets underway on Thursday night with a marquee matchup between the Kansas City Chiefs and Baltimore Ravens, kicking things off in spectacular fashion at Arrowhead. But before the action starts, now is the time to get in your season-long bets. Whether you’re looking to bet on the Super Bowl champion or play it a bit safer by taking the over or under on a team’s win total, we’ve got it all covered. Our editors at the NFL Wires each picked the best bet to make on every team this season, ranging from MVP picks to player props. All odds are courtesy of BetMGM. Arizona Cardinals: Win 8+ regular-season games (+120) Eric Hartline-USA TODAY Sports The Cardinals should be competitive. They won 4 games last season with a terrible roster and probably should have won 7. They have a very tough early schedule but the offense should be great with Kyler Murray starting the season healthy, with a top-five running game, a top young tight end now a young stud receiver in Marvin Harrison Jr. They went 3-5 in Murray’s 8 games last season. With an improved defense and an offense that should be dangerous, hanging around .500 is what should happen. They might just miss the postseason, but they should be in the mix down the stretch of the season. – Jess Root, Cards Wire Atlanta Falcons: Raheem Morris to win AP Coach of the Year (+1400) Mandatory Credit: John David Mercer-USA TODAY Sports The Falcons have missed the playoffs each of the last six seasons, but there’s reason to believe the streak will end in 2024 under the leadership of head coach Raheem Morris. The team addressed its biggest weaknesses over the offseason, adding outside linebacker Matthew Judon, safety Justin Simmons and quarterback Kirk Cousins. If Atlanta can win the NFC South for the first time since 2016, Morris has a realistic chance at taking home AP Coach of the Year in 2024. With +1400 odds, the payoff could be massive for those willing to put their money on Morris. – Matt Urben, Falcons Wire Baltimore Ravens: Lamar Jackson to win AP MVP award (+2000) Tommy Gilligan-USA TODAY Sports There have been five players in NFL history who have won back-to-back MVP Awards. Aaron Rodgers, Peyton Manning, Brett Favre, Joe Montana, and Jim Brown. Peyton Manning won back-to-back twice, while Brett Favre won three MVPs from 1995-97. Aaron Rodgers, most recently, won recent player to win back-to-back MVPs in 2020 and 2021 while playing for the Packers. The Ravens’ star quarterback has an excellent shot at repeating. The expectation was that Jackson would play well in 2023, but he improved leaps and bounds under first-year OC Todd Monken. Jackson, the 2023 NFL MVP, threw for 3,678 yards and 24 touchdowns and ran for 821 yards and five scores. He helped the Baltimore Ravens (13-4) finish with the best record in the league and led them to a playoff win over Houston. Jackson received 45 of 50 votes for AP first-team All-Pro. With the addition of Derrick Henry at running back and Isaiah Likely making a big jump at tight end, Jackson could be more explosive in 2024. – Glenn Erby, Ravens Wire Buffalo Bills: Over 10.5 wins (+135) Jamie Germano/Rochester Democrat and Chronicle / USA TODAY NETWORK The Buffalo Bills might not have their star playmaker in Stefon Diggs anymore and that has people around the NFL low on them. But those who were paying attention to the latter half of the 2023 season in Buffalo will know that might not matter all that much. While Diggs rightfully is among football’s best receivers, one of the reasons the Bills were fine with trading him was that half of the season. At that point in time, Buffalo was on the outside looking into the playoff picture but got there winning six of their final seven games. Diggs was not a big time contributor during that stretch. The Bills should be able to get up to double-digit wins again without him. – Nick Wojton, Bills Wire Carolina Panthers: NFC South finishing position – 3rd (+325) [Corey Perrine/Florida Times-Union] Coming out of 2023 with an NFL-worst 2-15 record and coming into 2024 with a first-year head coach, the Panthers probably won’t be very good once again. But they could be better than at least one divisional foe—the New Orleans Saints. Between a potential power struggle under center with struggling veteran Derek Carr and rookie Spencer Rattler and a line that could get either hospitalized, New Orleans may be undergoing a bit of an identity crisis on offense. So if the Panthers have something figured out with Dave Canales and quarterback Bryce Young and can stay relatively solid on defense, they may finish a step ahead of the Saints.– Anthony Rizzuti, Panthers Wire Chicago Bears: Caleb Williams to win Offensive Rookie of the Year (+130) (Photo by Rich Barnes/Getty Images) Is there a No. 1 pick quarterback who’s ever landed in a more ideal situation than Bears rookie Caleb Williams? Not only does he have an arsenal of weapons at his disposal, including DJ Moore, Keenan Allen and Rome Odunze, and a proven offensive coordinator in Shane Waldron, but he has a potential top 10 defense that will help take the pressure off him. While it’s unfair to expect a C.J. Stroud-level rookie year, Williams has the tools and supporting cast around him to make a substantial impact in his season – and perhaps even finally break Chicago’s streak of never having a 4,000-yard passer. – Alyssa Barbieri, Bears Wire Cincinnati Bengals: Joe Burrow to win AP Comeback Player of the Year (+250) Sam Greene/The Enquirer / USA TODAY NETWORK The fact Burrow is in contention for his second Comeback Player of the Year award after winning it in 2021 is a little problematic. And yet…he’s already shown he can do it, which is pretty rare. There have been zero concerns
Lions preseason film breakdown: Solving the Josh Paschal puzzle
Photo by David Eulitt/Getty Images What will Josh Paschal’s role be this year? Breaking down his preseason film to find out. Former second-round draft pick Josh Paschal starting and playing throughout the entirety of the Detroit Lions 24-23 win against the Kansas City Chiefs in Week 2 of the NFL preseason caught a lot of eyeballs and Twitter fingers. You could argue Paschal was the second most valuable player getting snaps against the Chiefs aside from starting nickelback Amik Robertson. Paschal was on the field for 28 of the Chiefs’ 59 offensive snaps to benefit his development. It should not sound alarms bells, despite playing in the fourth quarter. Paschal followed that up by playing 19 snaps against the Pittsburgh Steelers in Week 3 of the NFL preseason. We know now there was no reason for fear, as Paschal’s roster spot was always in the clear despite being the only member of the Lions’ likely top seven defensive line rotation of players to play in the preseason. Paschal’s professional development has dealt with numerous injury setbacks. A lingering core muscle injury from college zapped his rookie training camp and the first six games. A knee injury a month into his return knocked him out another two games (and his snap usage when he returned was drastically down). Finally, a knee injury in last year’s opener against the Chiefs landed him on injured reserve, causing him to miss five games, and throwing his second-year developmental curve off kilter. So given that Paschal has only played 22 career games (out of 34 possible) and that he is a versatile player, the snaps against the Chiefs and Steelers were beneficial for a still inexperienced rotational player. Paschal’s approach to defensive line play will always be built on the foundation of his play style being a cross between X-Men’s The Juggernaut and “Wreck it Ralph.” The reliable traits that Paschal has displayed thus far—particularly down the stretch last season while Alim McNeill was injured—is his ability to defend the run as a defensive end in base formations and his ability to bull rush and lead twists and stunts while kicked inside over the guard. This season, he has plenty of room to expand his game particularly as a pass rusher. It’s important to remain realistic that Paschal will never develop into a bendy and explosive edge rusher beating offensive tackles around the corner, like perhaps a James Houston. They are different players physically. The skillset expansion, under new defensive line coach Terrell Williams, likely includes ways to defeat blocks with improved and active, hand usage and in the same vein, deploying counter moves once his power moves (e.g. bull rush) have been stalled. Coming off the bench in Year 3, the key for Paschal will be efficient snaps (30 or less per game) and an efficient plan when attacking offensive linemen. Maximize the snaps on the field and don’t get stuck in the mud mid-play. In the selected 15 clips below, I’ll highlight what Josh Paschal did well and where he’s leaving room for improvement to paint an accurate picture of where Paschal is as a player. Ten noteworthy Josh Paschal snaps vs Chiefs : pic.twitter.com/SptEhMFnnX — Al Karsten (@FootballGuy_Al) August 23, 2024 Textbook run defense as a defensive end by Paschal. He controls the right tackle by keeping a powerful base, gaining leverage by shooting his hands to the inside chest plate of the opponent and not losing ground along the line of scrimmage to be able to disengage and take down the running back while maintaining outside containment. Ten noteworthy Josh Paschal snaps vs Chiefs : pic.twitter.com/bJewilBZKF — Al Karsten (@FootballGuy_Al) August 23, 2024 Paschal is a lunchpail player, but as he showed in Week 1 last year with the big fourth down stop against the Chiefs, he can make the occasional splashy play like this timely forced fumble. Unblocked, as the Chiefs are setting up a failed screen pass, Paschal doesn’t hesitate and he just attacks, while unleashing his 91st percentile 38-inch vertical jump explosiveness and pokes the ball out of the quarterback’s possession. Ten noteworthy Josh Paschal snaps vs Chiefs : pic.twitter.com/K513MTL63k — Al Karsten (@FootballGuy_Al) August 23, 2024 The Lions can always rely on Paschal’s hustle and upper body strength (89th percentile 30 bench press reps of 225-pounds pre-draft). Here he fights through the left tackle and chip-help via the running back to chase after Mahomes on the rollout. Ten noteworthy Josh Paschal snaps vs Chiefs : pic.twitter.com/JC4OCMfiPV — Al Karsten (@FootballGuy_Al) August 23, 2024 Similar to the previous play, Paschal utilizes his motor and forceful nature to bull rush his way into shrinking the pocket for Patrick Mahomes and forcing him into a small window to step into the throw and primarily use his upper body on the incompletion. Ten noteworthy Josh Paschal snaps vs Chiefs : pic.twitter.com/VHAYqnCV39 — Al Karsten (@FootballGuy_Al) August 23, 2024 The highlight for the Chiefs, and a majority of the NFL, for the second week of the preseason was this Mahomes behind the back pass. There wasn’t much else you could ask Paschal to do on this play as he slams Travis Kelce into some lockers like he owes him lunch money and gains ground on Mahomes. Ten noteworthy Josh Paschal snaps vs Chiefs : pic.twitter.com/tWbxsMCEhF — Al Karsten (@FootballGuy_Al) August 23, 2024 Lined up against the left guard to start the play, Paschal comes tight off the backside of the crashing defensive end on an end/tackle twist to force the left guard to grab and hold him from a clean path to the quarterback. It’s promising to see Paschal capitalizing as the looper on this defensive line twist, as he is often utilized as the lead crasher to eat up blockers and free up other players. Ten noteworthy Josh Paschal snaps vs Chiefs : pic.twitter.com/4IhFFrchU1 — Al Karsten (@FootballGuy_Al) August 23, 2024 Paschal works to the outside shoulder of the left guard on this play, which is an encouraging development. It
2024 Detroit Lions season preview: Defensive MVP prediction
Junfu Han-USA TODAY Sports Our Detroit Lions season preview continues. Predicting the team’s defensive MVP for 2024. Our 2024 Detroit Lions preview series continues now with the defense. This year, the Lions made some monster changes on that side of the ball in the hopes of improving a unit that ranked 23rd in points allowed last year. Whether it be free agent additions like DJ Reader, drafted talent like Terrion Arnold, or players they traded for like Carlton Davis, there are players that will certainly offer some reasons for optimism in 2024. But who will be the Lions’ defensive MVP this year? Here are our selections. Previously: Offensive MVP prediction 2024 Detroit Lions Defensive Player of the Year Brandon Knapp: Aidan Hutchinson With an improvement to the secondary and the defensive line, Hutchinson will benefit the most from it. With the coverage being able to do their job for longer, it will give Hutchinson more time to get to the quarterback. What also helps is the addition of DJ Reader to help the interior defensive line become an even bigger threat, which should have Hutchinson see fewer double teams. John Whiticar: Aidan Hutchinson While I think the overhaul in the secondary will be a boon for the front seven, Hutchinson should still be the unquestioned defensive MVP on this team. His pressure total (101) outweighed his sack total (11) by a fair bit, but he was also the only edge playing worthwhile football last year—Alim McNeill was second on the team with total pressures. With a better secondary behind him and added linemen like DJ Reader and Marcus Davenport, Hutchinson is being set up for an excellent year. Jeremy Reisman: Aidan Hutchinson I love that there are actual options this year like Alim McNeill, DJ Reader, Jack Campbell, Terrion Arnold, and Brian Branch, but Hutchinson will again take the honors. He quietly had a dominant training camp, and with a better cast of players around him, I wouldn’t be surprised to see him turn what was the most pressures in the league last year into a 15+ sack season. Ryan Mathews: Brian Branch Brian Branch is going to solidify himself as the most valuable player in this Lions defense for a variety of reasons, but let’s start with his positional versatility. Branch is a player who came into Detroit a year ago and was so ready to contribute at a high level, the Lions made him the team’s starting nickel cornerback and changed course with their plans for veteran C.J. Gardner-Johnson. In Year 2, he’s moving to safety, but not out of necessity–it’s to ensure he’s on the field as much as possible after having a dynamite rookie campaign manning the slot (first among rookie CBs in run-defense stop rate [7.8%] and 11th in passer rating against). Morgan Cannon: Aidan Hutchinson This was a really tough call, but because of the position he plays and the impact he can have on the game, I am going with third-year edge rusher Aidan Hutchinson. The former University of Michigan star was wildly productive in 2023 with a supporting cast that didn’t always do him a ton of favors. Now with a deeper and more talented interior defensive line group, Hutchinson should see more one-on-ones this year which will hopefully lead to more sacks. If Hutchinson can elevate his game to the level of the elite tier of rushers in the NFL, it will go a long way towards this defense making some pretty giant strides in 2024. Meko Scott: Brian Branch I have to admit that this one is some wishful thinking on my part. I know that Aidan Hutchinson is the Lions best player and I fully expect him to continue to climb the ranks of the NFL’s best pass rushers, but I really think we could see something special from Brian Branch this season. The move to safety will give Branch more opportunities to do something he did quite often in his rookie season, and that is make plays and generate turnovers. He played at a level last year that I believe was worthy of All-Pro honors at the nickel position in Aaron Glenn’s defense, and I think he picks up where he left off and takes things to another level by becoming one of the best young safeties in the NFL. Erik Schlitt: Aidan Hutchinson The Lions invested heavily in the secondary and added more depth to the linebacker core, but the addition of DJ Reader should open the door for Aidan Hutchinson to get more one-on-one opportunities, which will be a problem for Lions opponents. The Lions’ offseason moves have put talent across the defense, but Hutchinson remains the most impactful player and should take his game up another level. Hamza Baccouche: Alex Anzalone I want to say Aidan Hutchinson here, but I truly think it’s Alex Anzalone. He may not get there in the flashiest way, as we learned last year. Anzalone graded out as one of the league’s best coverage linebackers, and it was often through quarterbacks not being able to throw his way, rather than interceptions or pass breakups. The more I pay attention to it, the more I believe Anzalone is key to holding down the second level and softening the blow from the injuries and turnover that have plagued the Lions secondary in recent years. With a much younger secondary entering 2024, Anzalone will be a glue for this defense once again. Max Gerber: Aidan Hutchinson Detroit’s defensive MVP has to go to Aidan Hutchinson. While he might have hit a bit of a sophomore slump compared to his rookie season, he still was one of the league’s best edge defenders in 2023. I expect a double-digit sack season from Hutchinson this year. Alex Reno: Aidan Hutchinson Last year, Hutchinson didn’t have a ton of help along the defensive line, and he still put up ridiculous numbers despite teams using nearly all of their resources to try and stop him. Now, with
