Photo by Steven King/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images Our staff makes their expert picks for the Divisional round of the 2024-25 NFL Playoffs battle between the Detroit Lions and Washington Commanders. The Detroit Lions and Washington Commanders will square off at Ford Field in the Divisional round of the 2024-25 NFL Playoffs. “Listen, since OTAs, going into training camp, this is what coaches and the players were fighting for, and we expected to be in this situation,” Lions defensive coordinator Aaron Glenn said earlier this week. “We were going to fight to have home field, we wanted to have a chance to be in front of our fans, we know exactly what our fans do for us, the best fans in the NFL, so we’re excited to be able to play at home with them.” Here’s a look at our Pride of Detroit staff picks for the Lions vs. Commanders: Morgan Cannon (15-2): Lions 34-23 (Film breakdown) Max Gerber (15-2): Lions 41-17 Brandon Knapp (15-2): Lions 42-24 (Scouting report, X factor) Jeremy Reisman (15-2): Lions 34-27 (On Paper) Erik Schlitt (15-2): Lions 34-24 (Scheme breakdown, Honolulu Blueprint) Meko Scott (15-2): Lions 34-17 (Film breakdown) John Whiticar (15-2): Lions 38-28 Hamza Baccouche (14-3): Lions 37-20 Al Karsten (14-3): Lions 38-17 (key matchups) Jerry Mallory (14-3): Lions 34-24 Alex Reno (14-3): Lions 42-28 Kellie Rowe (14-3): Lions 35-20 Ty Schalter (14-3): Lions 33-23 Ryan Mathews (12-5): Lions 31-21 (5 Questions) Zac Snyder (11-6): Lions 31-20 Chris Perfett (0-17): Tie 34-34 (it can happen, just believe) For the rest of our staff NFL picks, be sure to check out our Divisional round predictions: Moneyline, spread, and over/under. Now let’s hear your picks. Vote in the poll below and share your score predictions in the comment section at the bottom of the page.
Expert picks, score predictions: Lions vs. Commanders
WATCH LIVE: Lions vs. Commanders preview, Madden 25 simulation
Come join our LIVE Detroit Lions vs. Washington Commanders Madden 25 simulation preview at 9:30 a.m ET Saturday. Is it possible Madden 25 has finally self-corrected enough to nail Detroit Lions predictions? That’s what we’re left wondering after our last Madden simulation. For Detroit’s huge Week 18 matchup with the Minnesota Vikings, Madden nearly nailed the score exactly, predicting the Lions to win 31-7 in a blowout victory. In reality, the Lions walked away with an improbable and unexpected 31-9 game. I’m not 100 percent sure, but per my own memory, that’s the closest Madden has ever gotten to the actual gameday result. As for the rest of the season, well, it’s been mostly a disaster as an accurate predictor. Take a look: How will Madden see Saturday night playing out? Join us Saturday morning around 9:30 a.m. ET as we live stream a simulated game between the Lions and Commanders. We’ll adjust the lineup to match the latest injury reports, don each team in uniforms of our own choosing, and then watch as the computer takes on the computer for some Divisional Round action. During the game, I’ll be there providing live commentary, answering your Lions questions, and just messing around as we watch the programming chaos unfold in front of our eyes. It’s a good time, and a great way to kill 90 minutes as we wait in agonizing anticipation for the game on Saturday night. Here’s how to join us: What: Lions vs. Commanders Divisional Round Madden 25 simulationWhen: 9:30 a.m. ET — Saturday, January 18Where: Twitch.tv/prideofdetroit or YouTube.com/@Prideofdetroit (or embedded below)
Big Blue View mailbag: Travis Hunter, draft scenarios, more
Vincent Moody asks: Is Travis Hunter really a “shut down corner”? I really want the Giants to draft their guy at QB, but if Ward and Sanders go 1-2, getting Travis Hunter or Abdul Carter would be pretty sweet. Your thoughts? Ed says: Vincent, I don’t know if Travis Hunter will be a shut down cornerback in the NFL. I know scouts think that will be his best NFL position, and believe he will be very good. I know the Giants would value both the coverage and ball skills. I can see the attraction of Abdul Carter, as well. I just don’t know that the Giants, with Kayvon Thibodeaux and Brian Burns already, would go that way. I think they might go Hunter or even defensive tackle Mason Graham because those guys give them something they clearly don’t already have. Mike Tizzano asks: There’s a lot about potential free agent and draft options at QB for the Giants this year. Schoen did mention trade as an avenue he’d consider. I’ve seen names like Cousins or McCarthy thrown around. Are there any other QBs that you’d consider kicking the tires on for a potential trade? Ed says: Mike, it sure would be nice to stumble into a Brett Favre trade, a guy who becomes way more than his original team ever believed he would. I doubt there was one of those guys sitting on someone’s bench in 2024. There are guys you could consider, if there current teams were willing to move on from them, but nobody I would give up more than a late-Day 3 pick for. Joe Milton (Patriots), Hendon Hooker (Lions), Sam Howell (Seahawks), Davis Mills (Texans), Jake Browning (Bengals) might be among those guys. If I’m Joe Schoen, though, I don’t look at any of those guys as the “answer,” and I would be hesitant to give up draft capital. Raymond Dansereau asks: So, Brian Flores sued that Giants claiming his interview was a sham to fulfill the Rooney Rule and the Giants always wanted to hire Daboll. While I get Flores’s claim, we all know employers have preferred candidates all the time and there’s nothing wrong with that (I’ve been on the wrong side of those interviews more than once myself and I didn’t get to sue anyone). Second, the NFL seems to set up this situation with the Rooney Rule in the first place. That said, the Patriots interview process that hired Vrabel seemed far more predetermined than the Giants one ever was. I realize this may be a forbidden question, but is the Rooney Rule outdated? Are there better ways to get more racial minority coaches in the pipeline without setting teams up for potential lawsuits? Ed says: Raymond, I don’t know what the answer is to fixing the Rooney Rule or the NFL’s hiring/interview process. It is apparent, though, that teams are often fulfilling their obligations with some of their interviews and nothing more. The Patriots, for example, were always going to hire Mike Vrabel after they fired Jerod Mayo. Everybody knew that. There are situations like that every year, where the preferred candidate for a job is obvious. What might bother me even more is the number of minority coaches who get the one-and-done treatment — Mayo, Antonio Pierce, Steve Wilks, David Culley come to mind. Again, though, I don’t know how you tell a franchise owner that he can’t hire who he wants, and fire them, too. Len Huber asks: I happened to revisit the video from preseason where Chatman chases a running back for 40 yards and catches him. Got me revisiting the idea of using him as a short yardage back. Do you think that idea was ever under consideration? Should it be? Ed says: Len, I don’t believe that ever came up. At least not in any discussions we ever had with Brian Daboll or the assistant coaches. Playing fullback is something that is in Chatman’s skill set. I doubt we would see it, but never say never (as the great Ben McAdoo always used to say). Robert Goodman asks: Do you think the Schoen/McCloud situation is a big deal, no deal or small deal and why. Ed says: Robert, I don’t think cutting Nick McCloud made any different in terms of the Giants going 3-14. McCloud was/is a backup cornerback/special teamer, whether he was on/off the roster wasn’t going to change the direction of the season. McCloud isn’t the first player and won’t be the last to get cut because he refused to take a pay cut. But, to me this does speak to a larger issue with Joe Schoen that concerns me. Schoen did not want to negotiate with Saquon Barkley last offseason. If you remember ‘Hard Knocks’, part of his reasoning was how much having done so the year before took out of him. Sorry, that’s not a good enough reason. That’s part of the job. I think Julian Love might still be a Giant if not for Schoen’s stubbornness. He could have matched the Seattle offer for Love, which was less than Schoen originally offered Love during the middle of the 2022 season, but didn’t. With Love and Barkley, he chose to take his ball and go home when the deals he offered weren’t accepted. You can argue that he did the same thing at the 2024 trade deadline. He could have dealt Azeez Ojulari, and probably Darius Slayton. We know for certain that he had offers for Ojulari, they just weren’t the offers he wanted. Now, because he wouldn’t move off his asking price, he got nothing. And will probably lose both players in free agency this offseason and get nothing in return. I think Schoen is a smart guy. I just think sometimes he’s too stubborn for his own good. He needs to look in the mirror and remember that it’s not about him “winning” a negotiation, it’s about making the right choices for the franchise. Mike Winterode asks: I know
Survey: An overwhelming majority of Giants fans want to replace Shane Bowen
Vincent Carchietta-Imagn Images Fans aren’t happy with the status quo New York Giants fans want some sort of change after their 3-14 finish to the 2024 season. That much is clear even without a poll. All you had to do was check the skies over MetLife Stadium over the last month of the season to know that there are plenty of Giants fans who aren’t satisfied with the status quo. Co-owner John Mara made a statement just after the season that both Joe Schoen and Brian Daboll would remain in place for the 2025 season (at least). It has since been reported that the team intends for Mike Kafka and Shane Bowen to remain the offensive and defensive coordinator (respectively). That, however, doesn’t satisfy the fanbase and the majority of fans want to see some sort of change after one of the worst seasons in franchise history. This week we asked whether the team should replace Shane Bowen at defensive coordinator and the response was a resounding “YES”. A full 70% of respondents said that they want to see Bowen replaced. At this point it seems as though fans will be disappointed and the Giants have made the decision to go forward with Bowen as the defensive coordinator for 2025. This likely suggests that the Giants want to see what Bowen’s defense can do with another year of work and some more players who fit the scheme. There’s also the matter of the offense. The Giants fielded one of the least productive offenses in the NFL over the past couple years, and that reached new depths (save Week 17) in 2024. It’s very difficult to play good defense while saddled with an albatross of an offense. Not only is the defense on the field too often, they’re often asked to defend short fields and play from behind. Opposing offenses usually have their full playbook open and are rarely forced out of their initial gameplan. It’s not really a coincidence that some of the best defenses in the NFL are able to work opposite some of the best offenses. Their offensive production puts pressure on the opposing offense to keep up, forcing them [the opposing offense] to take chances and give the defense opportunities to make plays. It’s been a long time since the Giants’ defense has enjoyed that kind of privilege. But it’s also true that the Giants’ defensive personnel was a poor fit for Bowen’s preferred schemes. He tried to adjust his philosophy — calling far more Cover 3 than Cover 4 — and called more blitzes than he previously had. The Giants did end the season as the only team with three defenders in the Top 30 for High Quality Pressure Rate. The final top 50 in fewest pass rush snaps per high-quality (1v1 win) pressure pic.twitter.com/LcQPjzkFsy — Brandon Thorn (@BrandonThornNFL) January 8, 2025 They also showed significant improvement against the run in the second half of the season and only allowed two runners to eclipse the 100-yard mark over their final seven games (Rico Dowdle and Jonathan Taylor). However, trying to shoehorn a defensive roster built for a pressure defense into one built to play zone coverage didn’t work well overall. For fans still hoping that Bowen will be replaced, the word “Intends” is carrying a lot of weight. After all, the Giants initially said that they intend for Wink Martindale to remain the Giants defensive coordinator in 2024. It’s still possible that one of the league’s new head coaching hires would ask to interview Bowen and he would be hired away without the Giants having to fire him. That’s the hope of another 14% of the fanbase. Unless something changes, however, it looks as though the 16% of the fanbase who thinks Bowen wasn’t a problem will get to see him for at least one more season.
NFL Divisional Round Betting Notebook
Ben Linsey provides data-driven, contextual betting notes for both sides of the ball ahead of every game during divisional-round NFL playoff game. Premium Content Sign Up NFL Divisional Round Betting Notebook 2YB5KB1 Detroit Lions wide receiver Jameson Williams (9) lines up for the snap during an NFL football game against the Dallas Cowboys on Sunday, Oct. 13, 2024, in Arlington, Texas. (AP Photo/Matt Patterson) By Ben Linsey Posted Jan 18, 2025 5:00 am EST I’ve been putting together notes for every game that Judah Fortgang and I touch on during the betting episode of the PFF NFL Show each week, and I’ve since extended that to game-by-game betting notes for the full slate each week. The idea is to put my research and thoughts onto paper in a quick-hitting, bulleted format to help myself work through what bets I want to place each week. Hopefully, you’re able to get similar betting value from this article as you work through your decision-making process. Each game will include data-driven and contextual notes for both sides of the ball with an “Angles I Like” summary at the end that quickly summarizes how I’m most likely to bet the game from spreads, totals and player props perspectives. HOUSTON TEXANS @ KANSAS CITY CHIEFS (CHIEFS -8.5, 41.5 TOTAL) These teams played in Kansas City several weeks ago, a 27-19 victory for the Chiefs. The biggest question going into that contest was how Patrick Mahomes, on a bad ankle, would be able to navigate Houston’s pass rush behind a below-average tackle unit. Mahomes answered that question by getting the ball out in less than 2.5 seconds on average. He dissected the Texans with quick underneath passes, going 21-of-24 for 171 yards on throws 5 yards or less downfield. It was a high-volume passing game for Mahomes, with the Chiefs passing on 68% of plays despite playing with a lead throughout. He ended with 41 pass attempts (fourth most in a game this season). Houston’s pass rush wrecked the Chargers’ offensive game plan in the wild-card round, so I expect the Chiefs to deploy a similar approach as in their previous meeting.
NFL Divisional Round: Favorite player prop bets using PFF Key Insights
PFF’s Key Insights tool looks for strength-on-weakness matchups that could be meaningful through a player prop lens, and we’ll be using them all season to provide our favorite weekly bets. Premium Content Sign Up NFL Divisional Round: Favorite player prop bets using PFF Key Insights 2S4EC16 Houston, Texas, USA. 12th Jan, 2025. Texans running back JOE MIXON (28) celebrates after scoring a touchdown during the Houston Texans and Los Angeles Chargers game at NRG Stadium in Houston. (Credit Image: © Domenic Grey/ZUMA Press Wire) EDITORIAL USAGE ONLY! Not for Commercial USAGE! Credit: ZUMA Press, Inc./Alamy Live News By Ben Linsey Posted Jan 18, 2025 5:15 am EST PFF’s “Key Insights” was developed to help inform winning decisions, whether that’s betting a player prop or making a start/sit decision in fantasy football. We’ve debuted a Key Insights hub on PFF’s website for the NFL playoffs, where all key insights can be found by position, with the ability to search by player. We’ve been tracking the results of logical bets associated with each insight, and in the spirit of transparency, the week-over-week results are included below. This product has been a work in progress throughout the 2024 season and will continue to evolve into 2025. WEEK WINS LOSSES WIN % 1 8 19 30% 2 25 19 57% 3 19 28 40% 4 20 13 61% 5 16 16 50% 6 28 27 51% 7 31 20 61% 8 32 21 60% 9 44 30 59% 10 30 35 46% 11 29 32 48% 12 27 39 41% 13 37 36 51% 14 45 36 56% 15 41 46 47% 16 55 33 63% 17 36 34 51% 18 34 45 43% Wild Card 23 23 50% TOTAL 580 552 51% Season-to-date record for all Key Insights: 580-552 (51%) Key Insights record since Week 4 (3+ weeks of 2024 data): 528-486 (52%) RB JOE MIXON, HOUSTON TEXANS: UNDER 15.5 RUSH ATTEMPTS (+102 on FanDuel) Over the past five weeks, Houston has passed at a higher rate in the first half than any other offense in the NFL. They’ve had little success establishing a run game early, including last week when most of Mixon’s success came as the Texans closed out their win over the Chargers in the fourth quarter.
NFL Divisional Round Best Bets: Back C.J. Stroud to produce on the ground
For the divisional round, we’ll target a game that should generate more points than the market expects and identify a player who may have a surprisingly productive rushing day. Premium Content Sign Up NFL Divisional Round Best Bets: Back C.J. Stroud to produce on the ground 2S4DNRH Houston Texans quarterback C.J. Stroud (7) scrambles for a gain of 27 yards against the Los Angeles Chargers during the first half of an NFL wild-card playoff football game Saturday, Jan. 11, 2025, in Houston. (AP Photo/Eric Christian Smith) By Daniel Galper Posted Jan 18, 2025 5:30 am EST The NFL playoffs roll on as we enter the divisional round. In this article, we’ll target a game that should generate more points than the market expects. We’ll also identify a player who may have a surprisingly productive rushing day. Let’s get into it. Los Angeles Rams @ Philadelphia Eagles (-6, 43.5) After a dominant win against the Vikings last week, the Rams will travel to Philadelphia to play the second-seeded Eagles. It appears that there will be snow on the ground when this game is played, which creates unique game conditions. While many assume that snow leads to less scoring, the results are actually more nuanced.
Recapping Ja’Marr Chase’s historic 2024 season
Sam Greene/The Enquirer / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images A season for the ages. There are players football fans look back on and say things like, “It’s a shame he played there; he could have won so many Super Bowls had he played for a good team/with a good quarterback/with a better coach/etc.” Calvin Johnson comes to mind. So does Barry Sanders. People outside Cincinnati may say that about AJ Green or Carson Palmer. If the Cincinnati Bengals are unable to win a Super Bowl while Ja’Marr Chase is their No. 1 receiver, will they say it about him? Chase finished a historic regular season against the Steelers by catching 10 passes for 96 yards and scoring the offense’s lone touchdown, helping the Bengals finish the season with a winning record and keeping them alive in the playoff hunt. The former LSU standout finished the year with 127 receptions, 1,708 yards, and 17 touchdowns, all of which are franchise records. He broke TJ Houshmandzadeh’s single-season reception record, which was set in 2007. Chase broke his own single-season receiving yard record, which he set in 2021, and he tied Carl Pickens’ single-season touchdown reception record (17), which was set in 1995. There are a fair amount of people reading this right now who have no idea who Carl Pickens is. Not only did Chase break or tie franchise records, but he also broke NFL records. Chase is the first player in NFL history to have a 1,700-yard, 17-touchdown season. He also earned the NFL receiving triple crown, leading the league in catches, receiving yards, and receiving touchdowns. He joined Cooper Kupp and Steve Smith Sr. as the only players to win the triple crown since the year 2000 and just the fourth in the last 50 years. Chase’s season will go down as one of the most dominant in NFL history. It wouldn’t be surprising if we saw a 30-For-30 down the line about how Joe Burrow’s MVP season and Chase’s triple-crown season were wasted on a 9-8 record.
Are Rams more fit to beat Eagles on the road in the elements?
Photo by Emilee Chinn/Getty Images Is this version of the Rams more capable of winning a cold weather playoff game? The Los Angeles Rams are set to play the Philadelphia Eagles in the divisional round of the NFC playoffs on Sunday. Unfortunately for the Rams, the weather in that game is set to be less than optimal to say the least. Forecasted to be 34 degrees and snowing, the Rams will be battling through the elements to earn a place in the NFC Championship game. However, throughout his career, Sean McVay’s record in cold weather games hasn’t been great with just a 4-4 record. Additionally, Matthew Stafford is just 1-8 in snow games. That includes a loss in Philadelphia in the infamous “snow bowl” game. Matthew Stafford outdoors in the rain/snow: 1-8 record, 54.6 completion percentage, 14 TDs, 11 INTs. 76.0 passer rating. 75% chance of snow on Sunday in Philadelphia. — Tucker Bagley (@TBagleySports) January 16, 2025 While the Rams haven’t necessarily done well in cold weather games, including a playoff loss in Green Bay in 2020, this specific team seems different. The Rams built this specific roster to be physical and grind out difficult wins. While things didn’t necessarily work out with Jonah Jackson, this version of the Rams offense was designed to take the fight to opponents. There’s a reason why they rank at the top of the NFL in power success rate at 80 percent. The Rams came into the season with the third-heaviest offensive line in the NFL. That didn’t change even with swapping Jackson for Beaux Limmer who is only three pounds lighter. When all five of those players have been healthy, the Rams are 5-0 this season. Kyren Williams has rushed for over 100 yards in three of those games and averaged 4.4 yards per carry. Matthew Stafford has also been sacked just four times — twice in games against the Saints and Vikings. This is a Rams team that has shown the ability to win in the cold and the elements. They did so against the 49ers in the rain and the following week in the cold against the Jets. Over the course of the season, the Rams have shown the ability to grind out games and win ugly. Former Rams left tackle Andrew Whitworth recently discussed why the Rams may be better fit to beat the Eagles in Philadelphia than at SoFi. “I think you can make an argument with how this Rams team is built that they actually have a better chance in Philly than they do at SoFi. When you play a team like Philly who is as good as they are on the perimeter with the receivers and you’re on turf…I know for myself when you’re an offensive lineman on turf, your footing is so freaking good…You just have such good footing and you’re hard to get on the ground. To go on the road, play on the grass and a little bit of bad environment weather. I mean, this is what the Rams are. They’re going to possess the ball, they’re going to run it, they’re going to try and win the time of possession. I just think that the Rams are built to win in some of those type of games…I think there’s a world where I don’t hate the Rams on the road in Philly and in an environment on the grass. If you put them in the two places, I think there’s a little bit of an advantage to bad weather, grass football that the Rams are better in that.” “I think you could make an argument with how this #Rams team is built that they actually have a better chance in Philly than they do in SoFi. I actually believe that.” – @AndrewWhitworth before the playoffs pic.twitter.com/bQrKHPM2VT — JAKE ELLENBOGEN (@JKBOGEN) January 15, 2025 The Rams are 2-2 on grass this year with wins against the 49ers and Vikings. However, both losses came early in the season against the Cardinals and Bears. Taking out the 41-7 win against the Cowboys in Week 17, the average margin of victory for the Eagles this season on grass has been just 5.5 points compared to 18.8 points on turf. All three of the Eagles losses have come on grass this season. In the past, the Rams have been seen as a finesse team and that’s been mostly accurate. That was especially the case in 2021 during the Rams Super Bowl season. They ranked 29th in power success rate that year while dominating in 11 personnel and empty. While they are still an 11 personnel heavy team, they have incorporated a lot more 12 personnel this season. They are at a 13.9 percent rate this season which is three times as much as they ran last year and nearly twice as much as they did the year before in 2022. This is a team that is not afraid to get into heavy personnel. When throwing out of 12 personnel from under center, Matthew Stafford ranks seventh in yards per attempt with a league-high 144.5 passer rating. That has allowed the Rams to get into some more play action where Stafford has also thrived. The Rams may still lose to the Eagles on Sunday, but unlike past teams in the McVay era, they may be better suited for this type of game. Anything to give that Eagles offensive and defensive lines a slight disadvantage is big in this game. The Rams have shown an ability to win ugly throughout the season and that’s exactly what they’ll have to do to beat the Eagles.
Raiders coaching search: Getting to know Ron Rivera
Ron Rivera | Photo by Scott Taetsch/Getty Images Las Vegas interviewing 2-time former NFL coach The Las Vegas Raiders have started to request interviews for the coaching opening left by the firing of Antonio Pierce. They have requested to talk to five candidates so far: Aaron Glenn, Ben Johnson, Steve Spagnuolo, Todd Monken, Robert Saleh, Pete Carroll, Vance Joseph and now Ron Rivera. Let’s get to know Rivera some more: Last job: He was the head coach of the Washington Commanders from 2020-23. Age: 63. Coaching experience: In addition to Washington, Rivera coached the Carolina Panthers from 2011-19 and led the franchise to a Super Bowl appearance in the 2015 season. He’s been an NFL coach since 1997 and he has six seasons of defensive coordinator experience with the Chicago Bears and the Chargers Other interest: He will interviewed with the New York Jets and Bears. Playing experience: The Cal product was a linebacker for the Bears from 1984-92. Why the Raiders are interested: Rivers is a quiet leader who connects well with his players. He’s known as a strong teacher and he head-coaching experience.