Photo by Ian Johnson/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images Prior to the last season, I made some predictions about some QBs and how they would fare in 2023 using solely numerical analysis. My results were pretty good and I really enjoyed “tracking” my predictions throughout the year. So, I thought I would try it again for 2024. This time around, I will focus on the AFC South QBs. Unfortunately, Anthony Richardson just doesn’t have enough snaps to warrant a reasonable prediction from the data. However, I will show his numbers at the end and point out things I will be watching for in 2024. On with the prognosticating. C.J. Stroud will regress somewhat in 2024. Stroud had a very good rookie year. He finished with the 2nd highest yards per attempt, had a top 10 TD rate and the 3rd lowest INT%. All of that combined to give him the 7th highest EPA per dropback (epa/d). Yet, despite those impressive results, I see other stats that lead me to believe, he won’t repeat that level of play. Here’s why. Undeserved YAC : Many feel that yards after the catch is a result of receiver talent, but I am a firm believer that YAC is primarily caused by QB play. A QB that quickly and accurately hits a receiver in stride will see a lot of YAC on his passes. However, Stroud is neither quick nor accurate. Last year, he had the 4th longest time to throw (ttt) and a below average accuracy (19th cpoe). In addition, he had the 2nd longest average depth of target (adot) in the league, which normally earns minimal YAC. Yet despite all of that, his passes earned the 9th highest average yards after the catch. This is what I call “undeserved” YAC. The additional yards was more a function of unplanned events than it was by designed plays and skill and therfore, is likely unrepeatable. If he continues to take a long time to throw deep and/or inaccurate passes, his YAC yardage will fall dramatically. Average Passing Success Rate (PSR): Somewhat related to the above, Stroud lived and died by the big play. While his EPA per dropback was 7th best, he had only the 14th ranked success rate. What that means is that he had an average volume of successes, but a portion of those successes were inordinately successful and that is simply hard to repeat. If I remove all league pass attempts that were 20+ yards, Stroud’s EPA rank drops 8 spots to 15th, which describes how he performed on the vast majority of his dropbacks. Anytime a QB has a high EPA/d and a “meh” PSR, then it is pretty likely he will regress in the future (Jordan Love falls into this camp too). As for a specific prediction, I’ll say that Stroud’s success rate remains around the same at 14th and that his EPA/d falls closer to average, let’s say below 12th. Also, his net yards per dropback, which was 3rd in 2023 falls below 10th next year. Will Levis stays horrible. Last year, Levis ranked 24th in EPA/d and 29th in PSR, so there is still room to fall and he just might do it in 2024. Here’s why. Opponent Defense: He faced the 8th easiest passing defenses last year, so odds are this year will be tougher. Defenses played zone against him 81% of the time, daring him to beat them underneath, which he didn’t and unless he improves his 21st ranked accuracy (cpoe), he won’t beat them underneath this year either. Reaction to Pressure: Levis was the 2nd most pressured QB last year and responded to that pressure by taking sacks instead of scrambling or throwing the ball away (4th sck%, 22nd scr%, 30th ta%). A QB can survive pressure if he makes smart decisions and Levis doesn’t. However, the Titans brought in a new center and spent thier first pick on a left tackle, so maybe they can bring that pressure rate down. I doubt it though. Levis had the longest attempted passes in the league and that tends to goes hand in hand with pressure. I project him to again be a bottom 10 QB in terms of EPA/d and PSR. Trevor Lawrence will be a top 10 QB Trevor Lawrence has had an interesting 3 years. After a poor rookie year, he dramatically boosted his performance in 2022 to finish 8th in EPA/d and 4th in PSR. However, last year he took a step back to finish 16th and 10th in those respective stats. I think this year, he looks more like he did in 2022 and ends up a top 10 efficiency QB. Here’s why. Opponent Defense: In 2023, Lawrence faced the 5th hardest schedule for passing defense, so he should have an easier path this year. In 2022, he found success throwing quick, short, accurate passes (30th ttt, 20th adot, 9th cpoe). In 2023, he threw deep passes (9th adot) into primarily zone coverage and it didn’t go well. I expect the Jags to return to a shorter more successful passing game. Turnovers: One of the reasons, he did better in 2022, was that he had a below average turnover rate (to%). Last year he finished 4th in TO%, dragging his other numbers down as well. However, 1⁄3 of those turnovers were lost fumbles. Fumbles and fumble recoveries are very flukey (random) and so I will be shocked if he doesn’t reduce that number this year. There are reasons I think he will reduce his number of picks this year as well, but I’ll leave that for the end of season recap if I’m right. Of course, if I’m wrong, you’ll never hear about it again. Prediction: Top 10 in efficiency (EPA/d) and success rate (PSR). Anthony Richardson will ??? As I stated earlier, there just isn’t enough data to make a stats based prediction for AR, but I’ll walk through the primary stats I look at and tell you if I see
Some QB predictions for the 2024 season
Raiders 2024: What is Harrison Bryant’s ceiling?
Harrison Bryant | Photo by Brandon Sloter/Getty Images Don’t forget the other guy at tight end The Las Vegas Raiders’ signed tight end Harrison Bryant this offseason. Let’s look at what to expect from Bryant in the 2024 NFL season: Size: 6-5, 230 pounds. 2023 recap: Bryant spent his fourth and final season with the Cleveland Browns. He played in all 17 games with nine starts. He caught 13 of the 20 passes he was targeted on. He had just 81 receiving yards. The Browns did use the fourth-round pick in 2020 at quarterback in fourth and short situations so he could push toward a first down five times. perhaps the Raiders will use him that was as well. What he offers Raiders in 2024: The Raiders signed Bryant more than a month before they drafted Brock Bowers in the first round. So, he fell to the No. 3 tight end behind Bowers and Michael Mayer. Bryant will still play and he is a solid blocker, so the Raiders will find ways to use him. Best-case 2024 scenario: Barring an unexpected development, we likely won’t see Bryant compiling big numbers. But he will should be a reliable rotational player who can help in both the passing and running games when called upon and play on special teams.
Power rankings: Where the Bills land heading into the 2024 NFL season
The Buffalo Bills have owned the AFC East in recent years with four straight division titles. But the team has made just one AFC title game over that span, and three of those postseason runs have been ended by Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs. Now the team is coming off an offseason that was…let’s go with bumpy. Buffalo’s top two receivers from last year (Gabe Davis and Stefon Diggs) are gone, replaced by the likes of veteran Curtis Samuel and rookie Keon Coleman. After years holding down the back of the Buffalo defense, veteran safeties Micah Hyde and Jordan Poyer are also elsewhere. Linebacker Matt Milano is potentially out for the season after tearing his biceps. While speaking to reporters, Bills head coach Sean McDermott said that while those personnel losses sting, the team feels it has players on the roster willing to step up and fill the void. “You never replace people like [Diggs], players like that. No two players or people are the same,” McDermott said. “It’s an opportunity for people to take on new roles, to stretch themselves a little bit. To hold people accountable for somebody else. I think a big piece of this is, you don’t just hire leaders or bring in leaders. You’re developing leaders the whole time.” Any team led by Josh Allen is going to be a tough out. But in a loaded AFC, Davenport wonders if the Bills lost one player too many this offseason. “Don’t get me wrong,” he said. “The Bills are still obviously a playoff contender and may well still be the class of the AFC East. But the Chiefs added wide receiver talent in the offseason. The Baltimore Ravens added a potential nightmare for opposing defenses in running back Derrick Henry. And the Bills added—not a lot.” “Frankly, losing the likes of Poyer and Milano on defense could be even bigger hits,” Davenport continued. “Both are longtime leaders on that side of the ball—guys who made sure people are where they are supposed to be and rally the troops when things aren’t going ideally. The gap between the Chiefs and Bills looks to have widened. The gap between the Bills, Dolphins and Jets has narrowed. Neither is good news in Western New York.”
ESPN analyst predicts 3rd place finish for Rams in NFC West
Photo by Ric Tapia/Getty Images ESPN’s Mike Clay is at it again, projecting the Rams for fewer than 8 wins in 2024 It’s been common for Mike Clay to undersell the Los Angeles Rams in his projections for ESPN, but did the analyst take it a step too far with his win-loss projections this week? In Clay’s win-loss projections for all 32 teams and the projected standings and playoff seedings, Clay has the Rams winning 8 games (7.9 to be exact) and finishing in third place behind the San Francisco 49ers and Seattle Seahawks. Clay’s projections have the NFC West going like this: 49ers 12-5 Seahawks 9-8 Rams 8-9 Cardinals 6-11 It’s time! Final 2024 NFL Win Total Projections https://t.co/kDEuvZL7GP pic.twitter.com/oNIi4V1uvP — Mike Clay (@MikeClayNFL) September 5, 2024 By these projections, the Bears win the final wild card spot with a 9-8 record and the Rams would have the 12th overall pick in next year’s draft. With the news that Darious Williams is on IR, adding to a relatively long list of injured Rams, it is possible that L.A. does fall below expectations. But it is so early in the year that we can’t over-sell every little thing that happens as being what determines the full season outcome for any team, including the Rams. A team could start 0-2 and make the playoffs or start 5-0 and miss the playoffs. Right now all teams are 0-0 though, so anything could happen in the next four months. A projection of the Seahawks finishing with a better record than the Rams is probably more surprising than just L.A. finishing 8-9. Clay must be giving a high score to Seattle’s new coaching staff because not much else has changed and the Rams easily defeated the Seahawks 30-13 in Week 1 last year and have consistently finished ahead of them in the standings for most of Sean McVay’s career. Clay sees that changing in 2024, but I’m not sure how many people agree.
Ravens at Chiefs: Sights and sounds from the first half at Arrowhead Stadium
Ravens at Chiefs: Sights and sounds from the first half at Arrowhead Stadium Share this article glenn erby After months of waiting, the Ravens and Chiefs took the field for an exciting, big-play-filled first half at Arrowhead Stadium. Kansas City went to the locker room with a 13-10 first-half lead. Super Bowl MVP Patrick Mahomes was 9-14 passing for 117 yards and one costly late second-quarter touchdown. Zach Orr’s defense held the Chiefs to eight total first downs and 139 yards on 22 first-half plays. With the second half set to begin, here are sights and sounds from the first half. Baltimore Banner Ryan Mink Ravens Ravens Adam Schefter Derrick Henry has arrived The Athletic The Athletic NFL Ravens Ravens NextGenStats NFL Ravens Share this article Like this article? Sign up for our newsletter to get updates to your inbox, and also receive offers from us, our affiliates and partners. By signing up you agree to our Privacy Policy Email View all newsletters
Ja’Marr Chase will play vs. Patriots, per report; Bengals have made a major contract offer
Sam Greene/The Enquirer / USA TODAY NETWORK Ja’Marr Chase will see the field despite hold-in. It appears the Cincinnati Bengals will have the services of wise receiver Ja’Marr Chase this upcoming Sunday against the New England Patriots, according to Ian Rapoport. Per Rapoport, Chase is planning to play on Sunday. “Ja’Marr Chase is a professional. He practiced Wednesday. Did practice today (Thursday) on a limited basis just to make sure to ease him in, but he is, in fact, expected to play Sunday,” Rapoport said Thursday. Rapoport notes one big reason was Chase being a hold-in and not a hold-out. He attended meetings and practices amid his contract dispute with the Bengals front office. It isn’t a complete replacement for actual reps, but going into his fourth season in the NFL with quarterback Joe Burrow allows him some leeway. From @NFLGameDay Kickoff: #Bengals WR Ja’Marr Chase will be ready to go Sunday, per QB Joe Burrow. But will he have a new contract? pic.twitter.com/ghtMUy8gmy — Ian Rapoport (@RapSheet) September 5, 2024 It also helps that Chase and Burrow had throwing sessions, so their timing shouldn’t be completely off come game day. It will remain to be seen if Chase will play the whole game or be limited, but his return to practice Wednesday was a huge step towards the former. This all became possible as Rapoport also noted Cincinnati made a significant offer to Chase that must at least show enough goodwill for the receiver to return to practice just in time for Week 1. “I know the Bengals have made a significant, significant offer. We do not know if it is enough to do the deal,” Rapoport added. It has been a long process, but it appears Chase will be on the field this week.
Jordan Addison Says He’s Playing On Sunday
Photo by Mike Mulholland/Getty Images An ankle injury, apparently, won’t stop him The Minnesota Vikings currently only have two players listed on their injury report heading into Sunday’s season opener against the New York Giants at MetLife Stadium. One of those two players has, apparently, already determined that his injury isn’t going to stop him from taking the field. Wide receiver Jordan Addison, who has been dealing with an ankle issue for the past few weeks, has said he’s definitely going to play on Sunday, per Dane Mizutani of the St. Paul Pioneer Press. Addison suffered a high ankle sprain during the team’s joint practices with the Cleveland Browns back on 14 August. The recovery period for such an injury is generally a few weeks, and so Addison appears to have had enough time to recover. “I’ve had them plenty of times,” Addison said. “As soon as it happened, I’m like, ‘I already know what it is. It ain’t no biggie.’ I already knew I was going to be back for Week 1. It wasn’t nothing serious.” Addison figures to be a big part of the Minnesota offense during the early portion of the season, given the injury status of tight end T.J. Hockenson. With defenses likely focusing a bunch of attention on Justin Jefferson, Addison should be able to take advantage of some matchups in the early going. The Vikings have been a steady 1.5-point favorite throughout the week heading into this one. You would think that if there was any real indication that Addison was going to be out of this one that number would shift a bit. To this point, that hasn’t been the case, so I would expect him to be given a clean bill of health when the final injury reports come out on Friday afternoon. In the event that Addison can’t go, for whatever reason, the Vikings might have to give significant reps to either Trishton Jackson and/or Brandon Powell. That’s because the only other player on the team’s injury report to this point is Addison’s potential replacement, Jalen Nailor, who is dealing with an ankle injury of his own. Hopefully Nailor will be cleared to play on Sunday as well, giving Sam Darnold a full complement of receivers in his return to MetLife Stadium.
/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/73567085/1177314916.0.jpg?w=1200&resize=1200,0&ssl=1 "Chiefs-Ravens LIVE updates: Kansas City leads 20-10 in the third quarter")
Chiefs-Ravens LIVE updates: Kansas City leads 20-10 in the third quarter
Photo by Jamie Squire/Getty Images For the NFL’s 2024 season opener, the Kansas City Chiefs are hosting the Baltimore Ravens for ”Thursday Night Football” on GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium. The teams last met in January, when Kansas City defeated Baltimore 17-10 in the AFC Championship at M&T Bank Stadium. The Chiefs have won four of the five games between these two teams since Patrick Mahomes and Lamar Jackson became their respective starting quarterbacks in 2018. First quarter After a 20-minute weather delay, the season finally got under way with Harrison Butker’s kickoff landing in the end zone, for a touchback to the 30-yard line. Running back Derrick Henry’s first carry as a Raven went for less than two yards. After a penalty pushed Baltimore back five yards, Chris Jones nearly had a sack before Lamar Jackson completed a five-yard pass. The second of two Jackson completions to running back Justice Hill went for 18 yards to set Baltimore up with a first down at their own 47-yard line. The Ravens appeared set to have a big gain due to a pass interference penalty on Jaylen Watson, but Baltimore’s third illegal formation call of the drive offset the foul. A play later, Jackson found Zay Flowers for a 19-yard gain to the Chiefs’ 33-yard line. Jackson and Henry quickly combined for 20 more yards on the ground the Kansas City 13-yard mark. Two plays later, Henry punched the ball in for a touchdown. Justin Tucker’s extra pointed opened the scoring at 7-0 Ravens. Rookie running back Carson Steele took the Chiefs’ first kickoff opportunity, returning Tucker’s kick 28 yards to start the Chiefs at their own 33-yard line. Patrick Mahomes quickly found Rashee Rice for ten yards and a first down. The drive appeared in danger of stalling after Mahomes was nearly sacked on first down and Isiah Pacheco only gained five yards on second down. On third-and-5 from the Chiefs’ 48-yard line, Mahomes found Rice for a 16-yard reception. A personal foul on the play put the ball on the Baltimore 21-yard line. One play later, rookie wideout Xavier Worthy took an end around the distance for a rushing touchdown on his first career touch. Harrison Butker’s extra point evened the score at Chiefs 7, Ravens 7. Butker’s second kickoff again went into the end zone to start consecutive drives at the 30-yard line for Baltimore. Jackson started the drive with a 15-yard pass to tight end Isaiah Likely. The Ravens would only gain five more yards, however, with safety Justin Reid making a great third-down stop on Hill. Raven’s punter Jordan Stout came on for the first time of the evening, and Mecole Hardman called for a fair catch at the Chiefs’ ten-yard line to start their second drive. Mahomes eluded a sack, and Pacheco took a dump off for 23-yards on first down. Rice followed with another reception, this time for 19 yards to enter Baltimore territory. Unfortunately, the Chiefs next two plays only gained a total of two yards. The first quarter came to an end with Mahomes taking a ten-yard sack back at the Chiefs’ 44-yard line. Second quarter Matt Araiza came on for his first career regular season punt to start the second quarter, a touchback to start Baltimore’s third possession at their own 20-yard line. On first down, Chris Jones burst through the Ravens’ offensive line to drop Jackson for a six-yard loss — and a forced fumble. Second-year defensive end Felix Anudike-Uzomah fell on the loose ball to give the Chiefs the ball back at the Baltimore 14-yard line. Unfortunately, the Chiefs’ gift possession started with a detrimental holding call on a trick play with Pacheco taking a direct snap out of the wildcat. An 11-yard pass to tight end Noah Gray — reported pregame to have signed a lucrative contract extension — gave the Chiefs a chance to convert a third-and-9. Wide receiver JuJu Smith-Schuster could not bring in a pass near the goal line, however. Butker came on for a successful 32-yard field goal to give the Chiefs a 10-7 lead. Butker’s third kickoff yielded the same result of Baltimore starting at their own 30 after a touchback. A pass to Flowers and a carry by Henry quickly gained 12 yards to move the chains. Baltimore would then suffer their own costly penalty, as an offensive pass interference call negated a short gain by Flowers. Baltimore advanced the ball back to midfield, where they kept the offense on the field for a crucial fourth-and-3. Flowers gained only a single yard, and the Chiefs retook possession at their own 49-yard line. The Chiefs appeared in danger of badly underwhelming, as two short gains were followed with a false start by Jawaan Taylor. On third-and-12 from the Chiefs’ 47-yard line, Mahomes scrambled to avoid a sack and found Travis Kelce for a 23-yard pass that broke franchise legend Len Dawson’s team record for passing yards. Worthy followed by taking his first reception for a dozen yards. The drive would stall, with Worthy essentially playing cornerback in the end zone to prevent an interception. Butker was true from 31 yards to extend Kansas City’s lead to 13-7. For the fourth time, Baltimore started a possession at their own 30 after a kickoff touchback. The Ravens were enjoying a methodical drive, gaining 33 yards to the Chiefs’ 37-yard line on six plays. A pair of penalties, however, slowed their pace. The first half reached the two-minute warning with Baltimore facing third-and-8 from the Chiefs’ 35 and down six points. A running Jackson withstood pressure to get off an incomplete pass. Justin Tucker’s reputation for accuracy proved for naught, as he narrowly missed a 53-yard field goal to the left. The Chiefs took possession at their own 43-yard line with 1:50 remaining until halftime. The Chiefs immediately gave the ball back to the Ravens as Mahomes threw an interception to linebacker Roquan Smith at the Baltimore 49-yard line with 1:44 remaining. Baltimore made the
Roster move: Carter Coughlin released by New York Giants
Carter Coughlin | Vincent Carchietta-Imagn Images Special teamer loses his spot The New York Giants on Thursday released veteran linebacker/special teamer Carter Coughlin, opening a spot on the 53-man roster. No corresponding move was immediately announced. Coughlin, 27, was a seventh-round pick by the Giants in 2020. He has been used almost exclusively on special teams the past two seasons, playing just eight total defensive snaps in that time. Coughlin’s rookie contract expired after last season, and it was somewhat surprising that he was brought back for a fifth year. A vested veteran, Coughlin does not have to go through waivers. He becomes a free agent. It is possible that he lands on the Giants’ practice squad. The Giants currently have a full practice squad, though it is possible one of those players will be signed to the 53-man roster. Veteran fullback Jakob Johnson has been bounced back-and-forth a couple of times since the 53-man roster was initially set. Whatever move the Giants make to fill that spot, we will have it for you when it becomes known.
Browns, Cowboys injury report: Starting CB for Dallas added to list
Photo by Tim Warner/Getty Images Caelen Carson is expected to take over for DaRon Bland but seemingly hurt his knee The Cleveland Browns versus the Dallas Cowboys might be a matchup between a home team with a lot of injuries and visitors with very few. The game will have the eyes of almost everyone in the country on Sunday afternoon. In the first injury report, the Browns had eight players limited while the Cowboys had just one player not participating fully. Thursday saw just two changes, along with Cleveland waiving WR David Bell from the roster. Dallas added CB Caelen Carson to the list, despite full participation, while OL Jedrick Wills did not practice. Carson was expected to start with CB DaRon Bland out for multiple weeks. Thursday’s injury report with update bolded: Browns Injuries WR David Bell – Quad – Limited – Released OT Jack Conklin – Knee – Limited LB Jordan Hicks – Calf – Limited DT Maurice Hurst – Hamstring – Limited WR Jerry Jeudy – Knee – Full DL Quinton Jefferson – Achilles – Limited LB Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah – Hand – Full DL Dalvin Tomlinson – Knee – Limited LB Nathaniel Watson – Quad – Limited OT Jedrick Wills – Knee – Limited to DNP DE Alex Wright – Elbow – Full Cowboys Injuries LB Damone Clark – Knee – Full CB Caelen Carson – Knee – Full DE Marshawn Kneeland – Knee – Full S Israel Mukuamu – Groin – Full DT Mazi Smith – Achilles – Full DB Juanyeh Thomas – Groin – Full TE John Stephens Jr. – Hamstring – DNP Stephens is listed as the fourth tight end on Dallas’ depth chart. We will keep you up to date as injury news is released including updates to the official injury reports the next two days. Which of the Browns limited players concerns you the most a few days before their Week 1 matchup?
