Week 10 Colts’ Opposing QB: An analysis of Josh Allen

Thanks to the nflFastR project and NFL NextGen Stats for the timely sources of data.

For those of you new to this, I will publish key QB stats each week judging how well the upcoming opponent QB has performed. Yes, O-Line, receivers, and play-calling impact these numbers but they are primarily QB measures. I will probably modify the charts throughout the season. Commentary will be brief but feel free to let me know in the comments that stats aren’t everything. (click charts for larger view)

Josh Allen is currently in the running for MVP this year. What do the numbers say?

DASHBOARD

• Josh Allen is supported by a very good run game, but the Bills are a pass first offense against average passing defenses (6th arsr 12th edp, 20th opd).
• He releases the ball quicker than average, helping keep his pressure rate low (16th ttt, 19th pr%)
• He as an average passing depth, but primarily relies on shorter passes for his completions (17th adot, 23rd ay/c). He is accurate on those passes, which helps his receivers grab extra yac (13th cpoe, 3rd yacoe)
• In the face of pressure, he scrambles a and throws the ball away a lot without taking sacks, which is exactly what you want your QB to do (9th scr%, 8th ta%, 30th sck%)
• That all combines to give him a top 10 yardage efficiency (9th ypa, 9th ny/d)
• He gets a lot of first downs and TDs and few turnovers (14th 1st%, 5thTD%, 27th to%)

Basically, his success is built off of throwing short, accurate passes, quickly to receivers that can gain yac while he avoids negative plays using his legs and throws the ball away if nothing is there. There just aren’t any weaknesses to be found there, which is why he has the 3rd best EPA efficiency and the 7th best Passing Success Rate. If it wasn’t for Lamar Jackson, I would call him the best QB in the league this year.

HOW WELL?

He’s had a couple of bad games this year, but outside of those, he is consistently performing at the highest level in the league in the biggest measures of production.

HOW FAR?

Over the last 5 games, his passing depth has been dropping along with the depth of his completions.

The following graph shows he relies on the shorter passes with good yac for his production, which isn’t a negative. Patrick Mahomes has lived on that end of the graph most of his career. Again, link that with accuracy, quick throws and good decisions under pressure and you have a passing game that is very hard to stop.

TO WHO?

He spreads the ball around, giving him 3 big receiving threats.

None of his receivers are in the low-EPA, low depth quadrant. I don’t think I have ever seen that before.

HOW ACCURATE?

His accuracy has been trending up over the last 17 games, but he’s not overly accurate on deep passes.

HOW FAST?

He has been quicker in his release time, but that has gone hand in hand with shorter passes. When adjusting for passing depth, his time to throw is just a bit below average.

TO WHERE?

He find success all over the field, but primarily within 10 yards. So, he will feast on the bend-don’t-break defenses.