Week 9 Colts Defensive Rankings and Analysis: Two things can be true at once.

Each week during the season, I will be walking through the data from the previous Colts game and analyzing the numbers to form a sort of “what happened” narrative, as well as comparing the Colts against all other teams in the league. For a glossary of the stats listed, reference Season Stats. Thanks to Pro Football Reference, NFL.com, Football Outsiders, and the nflFastR project for being awesome sources of weekly data.

Against Minnesota, the Colts defense didn’t play very well. Okay, okay just hear me out.

When judging how well a defense did in the past, preventing opponent points is what matters most and in that aspect Indy held the Vikings to their 2nd lowest point total of the year, while turning them over 3 times, including 7 points off of a fumble touchdown return. That is a very good defense.

However, when judging how well a defense is going to play in the future, what matters most is “how” opponent points were prevented. And against Minnesota, the “how” was not very good. The Colts allowed the Vikings to enter the red-zone on 5 drives. They gave up 29 first downs, which is the 6th most out of 277 games so far this year. Minnesota’s 82.9% Drive Success Rate ranks in the 91st percentile. The Vikings had 0 three-and-outs and racked up over 400 yards of offense. That is not a very good defense.

Fortunately, 2 missed field goals and a red zone pick kept points off of the board, but in an alternate reality, Minnesota scores 34 and everyone agrees with me.

TEAM TOTALS

(Use the right-left arrows to toggle between stats for the week and the season).

In my Points per Drive calculation, the TD fumble return reduces Minnesota’s net points and so the defense was 7th best in PPD on the week.

However, the Colts defense was 5th worst in defensive DSR, 8th worst in defensive yards per play, 9th worst in EPA per play, 4th worst in opponent success rate, 2nd worst in defensive conversion rate and they gave up the most explosive plays in week 9. Do you see where I’m coming from?

On the season, that moves the defense up 2 spots to 12th in PPD against, but they are still only 21st in opponent DSR, which are wildly different descriptors. For predicting how they will do in the future, I would trust the 21st rank.

PASS TOTALS

(Use the right-left arrows to toggle between stats for the week and the season).

The sack-fumble TD return was a huge EPA impact event, which boosted the Colts defensive EPA per dropback to 14th.

However, that hides the fact that Minnesota was moving the ball through the air with ease, resulting in the 5th highest success rate and 8th most net yards per dropback. The Vikings had the 6th highest passing conversion rate and the 2nd most explosive pass plays.

So even though EPA-wise this was an OK game for the pass defense, they did not play well at all. On the year, the Colts defense is 18th in opponent EPA/d but only 26th in opponent PSR. That seems like a ticking time bomb.

RUSH TOTALS

(Use the right-left arrows to toggle between stats for the week and the season).

Against the run, the Colts defense was below average. They were 24th in preventing conversions (1st/c), but 19th in EPA per carry. I calculate a 17th adj Rush Success Rate, which brings the season total to 11th.

My gut tells me that the Colts are much worse than 11th against the run, but DVOA has them at 13th, so I guess I will tell my gut to shut up.

CONCLUSION & LOOK AHEAD

I know the scoreboard says otherwise, but this was a really bad defensive effort. If the team plays like this going forward expect a lot of 30+ opponent point games.

The good news is that overall the defense is better than this game. Still below average, but better.

Nothing cures a bad game like playing the 4th highest scoring offense in the league. The Buffalo Bills rank 3rd in Points per Drive and 5th in Drive Success Rate. They have the 5th highest conversion rate and the 8th highest play success rate, so they are just consistently good at moving the ball and scoring.

Josh Allen is having an outstanding year. He has the 3rd highest EPA per dropback and the 7th highest success rate of any starting QB. He’s got great protection, he doesn’t hold onto the ball and he is accurate. He’s a good scrambler and avoids sacks. He throws a lot of touchdowns and doesn’t turn the ball over. I really don’t see a weakness in his game.

On the ground, the Bills are just as good. I have them ranked 5th in adj Rush Success Rate to go along with the 5th best conversion rate and 7th most explosive rushes per game.

I think I’m going to be sick.