The New York Giants travel to Munich, Germany this weekend to play the Carolina Panthers in a Week 10 battle between two teams that are 2-7. The Giants are favored by 6.5 points, and the Over/Under is a low 40.5 points.
The Giants lost 27-22 against the Washington Commanders in Week 9; the Panthers picked up their second victory last week after defeating the New Orleans Saints 23-22, which prompted the Saints to fire their head coach. Second-year quarterback and former first-overall pick Bryce Young returned to the starting lineup last week for Carolina and is set to start against the Giants.
Statistics
The Carolina Panthers surrender the most points in the NFL, allowing 32.6 points per game. Their defense has only allowed less than 25 points twice this season—both of their wins (Week 3 in Las Vegas against the Raiders is their other win, 36-22). New York has only scored over 25 points once this season (Week 5 against Seattle, 29-20).
Carolina has the 28th-ranked red zone defense, allowing 69.23% of touchdowns in the red zone. The Giants have the worst red zone offense in the NFL, scoring a touchdown on just 40% of red zone trips. For reference, the 2021 New York Giants finished dead last in red zone touchdown percentage — they scored on 44.75% of trips.
The Panthers have the worst third-down conversion rate in the NFL. Their defense allows a conversion on 48.31% of third-down attempts. The Giants rank 22nd on offense in third-down percentage, with an average of 36.22%.
Carolina is also dead last in yards allowed per game. They allow 391.9 yards per game and have allowed 416 YPG over the previous three weeks. The Panthers allow the 29th most plays run per game — an average of 66.1. The Giants’ offense ranks in the top 10 of plays run in the NFL; New York runs 64.3 plays in a game, ranking them eighth overall.
Stopping the run is the primary issue with the Carolina Panthers; an inept offense compounds this problem, for Carolina’s opponents typically run out the clock in the second half. Still, the Panthers’ defense is Swiss cheese on the ground, allowing 159.3 rushing yards per game and the 25th-most passing yards per game, averaging 232.6.
Ejiro Evero
Ejiro Evero is the Panthers’ defensive coordinator. He is a disciple of Vic Fangio and runs a lot of base 3-4 and 3-3-5. The ‘base’ 3-4 turns into a four-man front with a linebacker on the line of scrimmage, and Evero will also often use TITE fronts.
The injuries and lack of depth have restricted Evero’s defense. According to NFL Next Gen, The Panthers have used a base defense (4 defensive backs) at the 4th-highest rate in the NFL this season (39.2%). They have allowed just 5.0 yards per play in base defense this season, 16th-most in the NFL and 1.5 yards fewer than when they are in any other personnel grouping.
The Panther’s 6.5 yards per play allowed when not in base is the most in the NFL this season and the most by any defense since 2021. The Giants should exploit this team’s ineffective non-base defenses and their base defense.
I’m not sure if it’s through desperation or desire, but Evero’s defense does blitz at a 28.7% rate, ranking them tenth in the NFL in blitz rate. They get pressure at a league-low 13.3% rate. Evero’s defense also gets pressure at the second-lowest rate when they do blitz (31.5%). There are only four Panthers players with more than five pressures.
The Panthers have utilized a zone blitz at the fifth-highest rate in the NFL this season (18.4%) but have allowed a 112.1 passer rating when doing so (3rd-highest in the NFL). Daniel Jones has recorded a 75.3 passer rating against zone blitzes this season, 10th-lowest in the NFL.
They rank seventh in total missed tackles, just behind the Giants, and they’re tied for 31st in the league with just ten sacks.
Personnel and Giants’ game plan
New York’s offense should be able to sustain drives against this injured and struggling defensive unit. Defensive green-dot wearer linebacker Shaq Thompson and the defense’s best player, defensive lineman Derrick Brown, were injured in September, and the defense has struggled to stop anything.
Carolina is surprisingly bad at generating pressure, stopping the offense, and forcing punts. Jadeveon Clowney leads the team with 18 pressures, followed by Charles Harris with 15, and former Giant A’Shawn Robinson with 13. DeShawn Williams has 7. Harris leads the team with three sacks.
According to Pro Football Focus, no team has a worse overall defensive grade and a pass rush grade. The base defense consists of Robinson, Shy Tuttle, and LaBryan Ray up front, with Clowney typically on the line of scrimmage as well to create the four-man TITE front. Jonathan Harris and edge defender Cam Gill are rotational players in the front. Tuttle is the nose tackle, and Nick Thurman spells him; Tuttle is only 300 pounds and his presence isn’t dominating in the middle.
I expect the Giants to uptick their GT and GH counter runs against this front — wash the TITE defender down the line of scrimmage and create extra gaps to the play side with two pullers. New York used GT counter successfully against Washington three times last week. Their DUO runs against this front may not be as successful, for it’s difficult to form multiple double-teams against three interior defensive linemen inside of the tackle’s inside shoulder.
Running counter to the outside and hitting the 7 or 8 hole outside of the play-side tight ends will force the linebackers to scrape and locate. New York could also employ crack toss to force the safeties and defensive backs to fit and fill. If Carolina commits to base personnel, New York can schematically take advantage of that decision; if Carolina switches to nickel, the statistics suggest a high level of discomfort due to their league-worst yards surrendered in sub-packages.
New York can get Evero out of base by spreading them out and using lighter packages — even 10 personnel. I expect Carolina to match the Giants’ 11 personnel package with base, which posses it’s own problems for Carolina since there’s only two cornerbacks to cover three receivers.
Veteran Josey Jewell is a solid second-level football player who missed three games but returned in Week 8. Rookie Trevin Wallace and Jewell will be placed in a position to cover Wan’Dale Robinson against 11 personnel, and the Giants can aggressively exploit that mismatch.
Evero may drop safeties Xavier Woods or Demani Richardson into the box or even over the slot for defensive back help. Woods has range and was a disruptive player for the Cowboys years ago. Richardson returned to the lineup in Week 8; he’s an undrafted rookie free agent out of Texas A&M, on whom Carolina is high.
Evero does employ multiple safety packages that tend not to do well against the run. Veteran Dane Jackson, rookie Chau Smith-Wade, and former first-round pick by Shane Bowen’s Tennessee Titans — Caleb Farley (now playing safety) — earn snaps in BIG-NICKEL and DIME.
When the Giants get Evero’s defense into sub-packages, they should run the football: DUO, inside zone, stretch, zone-read, but I would start with Shotgun DUO or off-tackle runs in an attempt to impose one’s strength up front against an inferior line and force the sub-package defenders to fit off-tackle.
The Panthers don’t have bad starting cornerbacks on the outside. Jaycee Horn may be their best overall healthy player; he’s having an impressive season:
The #Panthers defense is struggling.
However, starting CB Jaycee Horne is low-key having a great season. Horne is tied with L’Jarius Sneed for the lowest catch rate allowed in the NFL.
Horne allows just a 42.9% completion rate. He has seven PBUs with one interception. He aligns…
— Nick Falato (@nickfalato) November 7, 2024
Former Seattle Seahawk — and 6-foot-1, 210-pound cornerback — Mike Jackson is having an adequate season, albeit he does allow nearly a 70% catch rate. According to NFL Next Gen, The Panthers’ outside corner duo of Jaycee Horn (9, T-4th) and Michael Jackson (7, T-13th) both rank in the top 15 in passes defended this season. Conversely, Horn has allowed five touchdowns (second-most), and Jackson has allowed 4 (T-3rd) as the nearest defender in coverage.
Carolina’s starting nickel, Smith-Wade, does not see the field too frequently due to the lack of nickel sub-packages. He has played over twenty snaps three times this season and over forty once. Dane Jackson could have a larger role on the defense, but he has only been healthy for two games. Lonnie Johnson Jr. can hardly see the field and played one snap against New Orleans.
Final thoughts
We’re feeling kind today: it’s vastly mediocre against very mediocre in Germany. However, the Giants are a much better overall football team than Carolina, who is surprisingly inept on defense and ineffective on offense. The Giants should win this game and cover despite Carolina’s victory last week.
There’s pressure on the Giants. It will be difficult for the organization to stomach a loss to this Carolina team. The Giants should enjoy Germany, eat their wiener schnitzel, and leave Europe 3-7. If they fall to 2-8, that seat under Brian Daboll may become too hot to sit in.
