Week 9 Colts Offensive Rankings and Analysis: I didn’t vote for this.

Each week during the season, I will be walking through the data from the previous Colts game and analyzing the numbers to form a sort of “what happened” narrative, as well as comparing the Colts against all other teams in the league. For a glossary of the stats listed, reference Season Stats. Thanks to Pro Football Reference, NFL.com, Football Outsiders, and the nflFastR project for being awesome sources of weekly data.

When you score only 6 points, no real analysis is needed, but I’ll go ahead and write a bunch or words anyway.

• 6 consecutive drives without any points is bad.
• Never entering the red zone is bad.
• 13 First Downs on 9 drives for a 59.1% DSR is bad
• 227 total yards is bad

TEAM TOTALS

(Use the right-left arrows to toggle between stats for the week and the season).

The Bears kept the Indy offense from snagging last place in Points per Drive, but they couldn’t stop them from being dead last in Drive Success Rate. I’m not even going to go over the details, it was all bad.

The Colts drop to 18th on the year in PPD and 25th in DSR.

PASS TOTALS

(Use the right-left arrows to toggle between stats for the week and the season).

Flacco was awful. He had the 3rd lowest EPA per dropback and the 8th worst Passing Success Rate. He managed a 19th ranked conversion rate and his 24th ranked net yards per dropback really wasn’t as bad as it seemed, because it was heavily impacted by the 3 sacks on the final desperation drive. But when it mattered most, he didn’t deliver and had large negative drive-killing plays (INT, turnover on downs).

On the year, the Colts’ passing rank drops 3 spots to 20th in terms of EPA/d but it is 30th in passing success rate so there is a whole lot of room for EPA efficiency to drop even further.

RUSH TOTALS

(Use the right-left arrows to toggle between stats for the week and the season).

In a run-first game, rushing was poor. 3.6 yards per carry and a 28th ranked conversion rate isn’t going to cut it. Add in a lost fumble and you get the 25th worst weekly performance.

On the year, I have the Colts 12th in rushing.

CONCLUSION & LOOK AHEAD

The Colts’ offensive strength is rushing, but trading Richardson for Flacco depresses the run game. So, Flacco has to make up the difference, which he clearly did not do in this game.

The week 10 matchup is against the 7th ranked (PPD) Buffalo Bills defense. Oh joy.

They actually aren’t very good against the pass, ranking 20th in opponent EPA/d and 19th in opponent DSR. They give up a lot of conversions (9th highest opponent conversion rate), but the 9th fewest net yards per dropback. Basically, they prevent big plays daring you to beat them underneath and not make mistakes. So, they are susceptible to quick short yardage hitters. If Flacco can get it together, he could actually do well. I expect more of a pass-first concept this week.

They are strong against the run, ranking 12th in defensive Adj Rush Success Rate. They give up the 6th least Yards per Carry and the 3rd lowest amount of explosive rushes. I don’t see the Colts running to victory on this one.