The Eagles beat the Jaguars thanks to superior talent and in spite of their head coach.
The differences between the Jaguars and the Eagles on Sunday were clear and jarring.
One of the two teams was supremely talented. One was not.
One of the two teams made spectacular, highlight reel plays and is a legitimate playoff contender. One is not.
One of the two teams has an MVP caliber quarterback. One does not.
One of the two teams has exciting young players on an improving defense. One does not.
Jacksonville has earned every bit of their 2-7 record this season, while the 6-2 Eagles are once again putting themselves in a position to make another Super Bowl run. And yet, Sunday’s 28-23 win over the hapless Jags came within a Nakobe Dean end zone interception from turning into the team’s second come-from-ahead loss of the season at Lincoln Financial Field.
It didn’t have to be that way, but it was, thanks to an egregious mistake by replay officials awarding a touchdown to the Jaguars on a non-fumble fumble by Saquon Barkley, and four decisions by Sirianni that actively took points off the board.
First, let it be known that I believe in analytics, and I believe one of the reasons Philadelphia has been successful during the Lurie ownership is that he and the front office have leaned into using analytics when it comes to decision-making. But as the baseball world has observed over the last decade, man cannot live by computer alone. The best managers/head coaches are the ones who will take the analytics and use them, but also know when to put them in their pockets.
- After the Jaguars inexplicably gave up a 19-yard touchdown to Barkley on a 3rd-and-17 with 22 seconds left, the Eagles lined up and kicked the extra point to give themselves a 17-point lead. However, DaVon Hamilton jumped offside on the extra point try, so Sirianni decided to take the point off the board, accept the penalty and go for two with the Tush Push from the one-yard line. Normally this would be the right impulse, but if the Eagles had kept the extra point, it would have been a three-score game, rather than a 16-point, two-score game. The fact the Eagles failed to convert on the Tush Push was shocking, but it was an unforced error, and the advantage of an 18-point lead vs. a 17-point lead was not worth the risk.
- After Jalen Hurts’ 18-yard TD run put them up 22-0, the Eagles once again received a gift from Jacksonville in the form of a penalty that placed the extra point try on the one-yard line. Rather than kick and increase the lead to 23-0, Sirianni tried another Tush Push to go for two. Once again, it was stuffed. This call was less egregious than the previous one, in my opinion, perhaps a negative process over results scenario.
- With a little over a minute left in the third quarter and the Eagles suddenly clinging to a 22-16 lead, the Eagles faced a fourth-and-inches from the Jaguars’ 25-yard-line. Yes, Jacksonville had stopped two previous Tush Pushes, but given they only needed inches, they could have also run Barkley or throw a high percentage quick pass. Instead, they went with a slow developing pass play that resulted in a turnover on downs. Had they kicked the field goal, they would have led 25-16, a two possession game. Usually, a field goal is a defeat, but in this case, chasing points wasn’t working for them, and the play call was awful. That’s also on Kellen Moore.
- Finally, clinging to a five point lead, the Eagles had the ball on the Jacksonville 39 yard line, facing a 4th and 4. This was not an easy decision. Either go for it and try to convert a more difficult fourth down conversion, or try to kick a 57-yard field goal. Or, punt and try to pin Trevor Lawrence inside his own 10-yard line. The problem with kicking a field goal here is that it only turns a five point lead into an eight-point lead. It’s still a one-score game. Jake Elliott missed the long field goal and the Eagles had to be rescued by a Dean interception in the end zone to seal it.
I get that some of these decisions are coin flips, but Sirianni seems to make the wrong call more often than not. Yes, one could argue that if the Tush Push had worked as expected, none of this matters, and that’s true. But the same was argued when they decided to throw the ball to Barkley at the end of the Falcons game (a decision I hated in the moment and still do) and it almost happened again.
Of all the Super Bowl contenders out there, the Eagles’ head coach is the one that could ultimately cost his team a playoff game more than any of the others. For the previous three weeks, Sirianni’s decision making was just fine, but time after time on Sunday, he hurt his team’s chances of beating one of the worst teams the Eagles are going to see this year.
Against an awful Jacksonville team, the talent won out. In the postseason, against a team like the Lions, Commanders, Packers, Vikings, Falcons or 49ers (I’m not ready to say Cardinals yet), there’s less room for error and the talent gap won’t be there to save Sirianni from detrimental in-game decisions.
