Week 9 Colts’ Opposing QB: An analysis of Sam Darnold

Thanks to the nflFastR project and NFL NextGen Stats for the timely sources of data.

For those of you new to this, I will publish key QB stats each week judging how well the upcoming opponent QB has performed. Yes, O-Line, receivers, and play-calling impact these numbers but they are primarily QB measures. I will probably modify the charts throughout the season. Commentary will be brief but feel free to let me know in the comments that stats aren’t everything. (click charts for larger view)

It seems that Sam Darnold is in the middle of a re-birth at Minnesota. Is he the real deal? Let’s look at the numbers.

DASHBOARD

• Minnesota has a below average run game and they are playing the 2nd toughest passing defenses, so neither one of those is helping Darnold out (23rd arsr, 2nd odp).
• They are a pass first team that avoids the shotgun and Darnold doesn’t face a lot of zone reads (10th edp, 30th sg%, 26th oz%)
• He is pressured a lot, but with the longest time to throw in the league and the 8th best O-line Pass protection, its safe to say he is inviting a lot of that pressure himself (7th pr%, 1st ttt, 8th Pass Black Win Rate).
• He throws the ball deep a lot, which partially explains his 3.1 second ttt and he has been very accurate, so those long attempts are resulting in long completions (3rd adot, 4th cpoe, 3rd ay/c).
• Long completions are often paired with low yac and that is what Darnold is experiencing, although even when adjusting for depth, his receivers yac is a bit below expected (24th yac, 20th yacoe).
• His high completion rate on those long attempts results in the best Yards per Attempt among his peers (13th cmp%, 1st ypa).
• However, the high amount of pressure is forcing him to abandon a lot of passes and even though he throws the ball away a lot, he also takes a lot of sacks (7th aa%, 5th sck%). That knocks his overall yardage efficiency down some, although it is still 4th highest (4th ny/d).
• He is throwing a lot of first downs, which is leading to TDs and turnovers aren’t a problem (12th 1st%, 4th TD%, 14th to%). So, he is adding a lot of value with his passing game (11th EPA/d, 11th PSR).

Darnold is threatening to be a top 10 QB his year and his main improvements have been accuracy and turnovers. In his first 4 years in the league, he had cumulatively, the 2nd highest turnover rate and the 2nd lowest accuracy (cpoe). Better protection has helped him turn those numbers around, so perhaps dialing up the pressure can help him revert to form?

HOW WELL?

It’s tough to call a trend with only 8 data points, but his last 3 game averages are worse than his first 5. This hints at a bit of regression but 95% of that is me squinting to try and see something. If he ends up regressing, I’ll take credit for it though.

HOW FAR?

He is clearly above average in completion depth.

TO WHO?

Justin Jefferson has been doing Justin Jefferson things and is obviously their main threat.

Darnold is getting good depth and value out of his receivers.

HOW ACCURATE?

He’s really had only 1 bad game against the Jets accuracy-wise, but Jets have a really good passing defense.

He is 24 for 33 on passes between 16 – 25 yards. That’s crazy.

HOW FAST?

He consistently holds the ball a long time. Sure, he throws far too, but even accounting for depth, he holds the ball too long. You can get away with that short term, but in the end, that will kill you.

TO WHERE?

Look at that ridiculous deep ball passing. Thank god we have a great secondary . . . oh wait.