How can the Rams win on the road and beat the Seahawks?
The Los Angeles Rams have been two different teams at home versus on the road. While they hold a 3-1 record at home, the Rams are 0-3 on the road with two of those losses by six points. However, the Rams will need to find a way to win in a hostile environment on Sunday against the Seattle Seahawks. Here are this week’s keys to victory.
1. Build on last week’s offensive performance
With Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua back in the lineup against the Minnesota Vikings, the offense finally hit its stride. The offense went 3-for-3 in the red zone while scoring 28 points. Nacua and Kupp combined for 12 catches for 157 yards and a touchdown. However, it wasn’t just Kupp and Nacua getting more involved. The Rams offense looked like a cohesive unit. There was a strong marriage between the run and pass and a lot of misdirection. They will need more of that against a Seahawks defense that does rank sixth in EPA on dropbacks with no play action. In other words, the Rams need to avoid obvious passing downs.
Despite a strong start to the season, the Seahawks have shown that their early success on defense was more about the quarterbacks they went up against in those games. Over the past five weeks, the Seahawks rank 30th in pass defense EPA and 32 in success rate. Their pass rush is getting healthier, but the Rams should be able to move the ball at will.
2. Win with the run game
The Seahawks offense hasn’t been a balanced unit for much of the season. They are currently tied with the Bengals with the highest pass-rate over expected at 4.5 percent. Among qualifying quarterbacks, Geno Smith has the third-lowest play-action rate. In other words, when the Seahawks throw the ball, there isn’t a lot of misdirection. However, a lot of that is because they haven’t had success running the ball. The Seahawks rank 30th in EPA per rush and 28th in rushing success rate.
It doesn’t get much better for the Seahawks on defense. They currently rank 27th in run defense EPA and 29th in rushing success rate allowed. Meanwhile, the Rams are third in rushing success rate on offense. However, the mismatch goes deeper than that. The Rams currently have the fourth highest rate of man/gap runs. Defending man/gap runs, the Seahawks are allowing a success rate of 57.4 percent. It sounds simple, but if the Rams stop the run and run the ball, they have a good chance of winning this game.
3. Get another dominant game from Jared Verse
Throughout his career, Aaron Donald dominated the Seahawks, consistently creating havoc and getting to quarterbacks such as Russell Wilson. Early in his rookie season, Jared Verse is a player that has created issues for opposing offenses. Last week was his first real “take over” game against the Minnesota Vikings. Verse took advantage of Christian Darrisaw being out in the second half last week. He’ll have a similar opportunity against the Seahawks.
The Seahawks offensive line has struggled at times this season due to injuries. However, George Fant could play at right tackle for the first time since Week 1. Fant may be ready to play, but how effective he is on the right side is a serious question mark. The Rams have done a good job moving Verse around. When Smith is forced to make a quick decision and get rid of the ball in under 2.5 seconds, he has the ninth-lowest EPA per dropback. The Rams need to get to Smith and make him uncomfortable.
4. Put pressure on Seahawks offense
The Rams offense hasn’t created many explosive plays this season. Some of that is because they’ve been without Kupp and Nacua. However, even last week, two of the Rams’ touchdown drives were 10+ play possessions. There is potential to create explosives however against the Seahawks. That’s especially the case on the ground.
Extremely worried after watching the #Seahawks defense tape.
Fundamental issues where players are aligning in positions that can only lead to failure. Fair to blame coaching.
Will explain, with clips and concepts like “3 site” and “double rotation”, tonight @seattleoverload
— Under Zone X (Frisco)/Phoenix Check/Stick Slasher2 (@mattyfbrown) November 1, 2024
Kyren Williams does a good job of getting what’s expected. Williams has a rush yards over expected per attempt of -0.3 which ranks 41st. However, the Seahawks have allowed 27 explosive runs this season which ranks 29th. The Rams need quick scoring drives to put pressure on the Seahawks offense to do too much. There is potential between the Seahawks allowing the second most yards after the contact and having an issue with blown coverages.
5. Control what you can control
Whenever it comes to things like officiating in Seattle, there always seems to be some sort of shenanigans. Back in 2022, some called the Rams-Seahawks game at Lumen Field the worst officiated game of the year. The Rams lost that game in overtime.
Judgment of the G̶o̶d̶s̶ Refs.
My g̶o̶d̶ ref, the Ravens have been absolutely hammered this year. FORTY (40) (!!!) (OMG!!) judgment call penalties against them, compared to just twenty-four against their opponents.
Seattle’s opponents have been flagged for a league-leading 35. pic.twitter.com/LojyyMAjNj
— Joseph Hefner (@josephjefe) October 30, 2024
While the above chart shows that the Rams have benefitted the most by judgement calls, Seahawks opponents have been flagged a league-high 35 times in those situations. The Rams are a young team, but it’s important for them to be able to move on from those and control what they can control in this game.
