Stock up, stock down: Which top quarterback prospects are rising, falling?

The future of the quarterback position has hung over the New York Giants for several years now.

We, collectively, thought the Giants had to draft a quarterback when Daniel Jones went down with a torn ACL last year. However, things didn’t work out that way and they selected Malik Nabers No. 6 overall. The Giants upgraded their offensive line as well as their receiving corps, but the results haven’t changed. Their offense has little room for error, and the Giants are 31st in the NFL in scoring at 14.1 points per game.

It seems increasingly likely that the Jones era is drawing to a close in New York, and the Giants could be drafting a quarterback this year. So with that in mind, let’s keep an eye on the top draft-eligible quarterback prospects.

The 2025 quarterback class isn’t as star-studded as the 2024 class, but there are some intriguing talents. This will be updated on a weekly basis with stats that have the strongest correlation between college and the NFL, as well as notes from the players’ performance on the field. Since this is our first week, I’ll be offering some general background and thoughts on the various prospects.

Cam Ward (Miami)

Predictive Stats

It’s pretty clear that Ward is the prize in this quarterback class. There are other players with more impressive tools, but nobody is playing better right now. And frankly, Ward is an absolute blast to watch. He’s capable of winning in-structure from the pocket, but also thrives when the game is reduced to backyard football. He moves very well in the backfield and has arm elasticity that’s reminiscent of a young Patrick Mahomes.

That isn’t to put Ward in Mahomes’ category as a player — Mahomes might be the best QB in NFL history). However, his ability to alter his arm angle and throw accurately off-platform is legitimately rare.

Ward just stands apart from the rest of this draft class, he leads them in EPA by an absurd 14.5 points. Not only is he making big time throws with regularity, he doesn’t put the ball in danger.

It looks like a lock that Ward will be the first quarterback drafted, the only question is which team drafts him — and whether they trade up to draft him.

Stock: Up
Next game: (5) Miami vs. Duke — Saturday, 11/2 — ABC, noon

Shedeur Sanders (Colorado)

Predictive Stats

Sanders is behind Ward, but the two generally make up the top tier of quarterback prospects in this draft class. Shedeur lacks great size or arm strength for an NFL quarterback — though neither would fall below thresholds.

His greatest strengths are his mental processing and his quick feet, and those allow him to lift Colorado to competitiveness. Sanders makes decisions very quickly and is very crisp in the pocket. He’s had to put on a Superman cape throughout the season, and that’s only become more true with the loss of two-way superstar Travis Hunter to injury.

There will be concerns regarding potential distractions that come with Shedeur Sanders, and that will be for individual teams to assess. As far as his on-field play goes, Sanders is one of the top two or three quarterbacks in this draft class.

Stock: Up
Next game: Texas Tech vs. (23) Colorado — Saturday, 11/9

Jaxson Dart (Ole Miss)

Predictive Stats

It’s surprising that there isn’t more buzz around Dart. He currently leads the SEC in completion percentage and yardage, while also leading all of FBS in yards per attempt. And those aren’t cheap yards, either, as PFF lists his average depth of target as just under 12 yards downfield (11.9). Touchdowns aside, Dart is on a similar pace as Jayden Daniels was a year ago. And while he isn’t overpowering teams with passing touchdowns, he’s thrown for 15 touchdowns to just three interceptions and is a threat with his legs as well.

Dart has a baseball background (he played first and third base), and it shows in his arm talent. He can drive the ball into tight windows, throw off-platform, and throw with touch deep down the field. He’s also a capable runner who can made defenders miss as well as pick up yards in the open field.

It’s a concern that Ole Miss’ worst games this year have come against the best teams they’ve faced — though those performances don’t all rest on Dart. He also tends to take too many sacks looking for the big play or scrambling.

How he plays down the stretch will go a long way toward determining his draft stock in the eyes of the NFL. But there’s a lot to like from a traits perspective.

Stock: Up
Next game: Arkansas vs. (19) Ole Miss — Saturday, 11/2 — ESPN, noon

Jalen Milroe (Alabama)

Predictive Stats

Milroe is, by far, the toolsiest quarterback in this draft class. He has elite arm strength to go with elite athleticism, and is a threat to create a game-breaking play on any down. He has the arm to attack deep downfield with ease, and is a major running threat on every play. I believe that, all things being equal, Milroe is the player who would most catch the Giants’ eye. Their moves over the last two years strongly suggest that they want an explosive passing offense as well as the ability to play 11-on-11 in the running game.

But if I were advising Milroe, I would suggest he go back to school for his senior season. He’s capable of making unbelievable plays, but also capable of terrible plays as well. He’s improved tremendously over the last year, but it’s also clear that he still has developing to do. If he comes out, he’ll almost certainly be a first rounder and likely a Top 10 pick due to his incredible upside. However, he’ll also likely have a roller coaster of a rookie season.

Stock: Volatile (though generally up)
Next game: (16) LSU vs. (14) Alabama — Saturday, 11/9

Garrett Neussmeier (LSU)

Predictive Stats

Neussmeier has been patient in waiting his turn to start for the Tigers, and that could complicate his evaluation. While he’s a red-shirt Junior who joined LSU in 2021, he only has 219 pass attempts spread across 18 games in the previous three seasons. The last two have been spent sitting behind 2024 second overall pick Jayden Daniels, and it seems to be time well spent. Neussmeier currently leads the SEC in completions (208) and passing touchdowns (20).

That said, he’s a roller coaster on a down-to-down basis. To a certain extent, that’s explained by his inexperience as a one-year starter. He always seems to be on the knife-edge of chaos, particularly under pressure. Neussmeier has some definite gunslinger tendencies and is willing (and able) to attack the defense. That can get him in trouble, but it can also result in big plays for the offense. It is notable that he flashes an understanding of how to throw with touch and anticipation, which is something not normally seen from devil-may-care gunslingers.

He has attractive traits, but his draft stock will likely depend on individual teams’ appetite for risk.

Stock: Neutral/rising
Next game: (16) LSU vs. (14) Alabama — Saturday, 11/9

Carson Beck (Georgia)

Predictive Stats

Beck’s draft stock has tumbled so far this year. He was pretty widely considered QB1 or QB2 coming into the 2024 season, but he hasn’t taken the next step and my fears regarding him are bearing out.

Other than his size (6-foot-4, 220 pounds) Beck doesn’t have any stand-out traits. His arm is good-but-not-great, he has mediocre mobility, and even his accuracy has been more due to the efforts of players like Brock Bowers and Ladd McConkey than exceptional precision on Beck’s part.

Still, Beck could still be a first-round pick. He simply looks like an NFL quarterback and will probably be regarded as a very “safe” pick. Beck won’t do anything to get a coach or GM fired, and he’s been good enough to win with if you can surround him with elite talent.

Stock: Down
Next game: (2) Georgia vs. Florida — Saturday, 11/2 — ABC, 3:30 p.m.

Quinn Ewers (Texas)

Predictive Stats

Ewers was once one of the top quarterback prospects in his recruiting class, along with Caleb Williams, Drake Maye, and J.J. McCarthy. However, Ewers has never quite been able to realize the potential that made him a 5-star recruit and he’s been plagued by consistency issues.

This year, he’s primarily operating a short-range offense, taking too many sacks for the type of offense Texas plays, and has dealt with injury. The NFL could still give him a real chance based on the recruit he was and his athletic upside. But based on his recent play, he seems to be trending more toward being a backup than a franchise player.

Stock: Down
Next game: (6) Texas vs. Florida — Saturday, 11/9 — noon

Drew Allar (Penn State)

Predictive Stats

I suspect that should Allar declare for the 2025 NFL Draft, he’ll be a popular pick for the Giants. At 6-foot-5, 240 pounds with legitimately elite arm strength, he bears more than a passing resemblance to Josh Allen. He also has some Allen-like consistency issues as he tries to control his prodigious arm strength. Allar doesn’t appear to be the kind of athlete that Allen is, however, and always looks a bit awkward when forced to flow in the pocket, scramble, or pull it down and run.

There will always be teams, and scouts, who fall head-over-heels for big, strong, toolsy quarterbacks, and coaches will want to develop his upside. Allar is dealing with an injury suffered against Wisconsin, but his stock should steadily rise if he doesn’t do anything to sabotage himself and his medicals check out.

Stock: Up
Next game: Unknown (injury)

Kurtis Rourke (Indiana)

Predictive Stats

Rourke is likely a new name for a lot of readers here. It isn’t a surprise that he’s flying under the radar at Indiana, but he’s flying so far under the radar that Pro Football Focus hasn’t graded him and he’s currently sitting at 929 on the Consensus Big Board.

He’s also dealing with a thumb injury that required surgery right now, but we could hear a lot more about him as the Draft Process picks up. Rourke is a very experienced Super Senior with prototypical size at 6-foot-5, 225 pounds with a very strong arm and great accuracy down the field. He isn’t a “dual threat” athletic freak, but is mobile enough to extend plays while keeping his eyes downfield. He’s playing his best football in his final season and is currently leading FBS in passer rating and QBR. Rourke could be a riser as more people get around to studying his tape — particularly if he’s able to get back for the end of the season.

Stock: Neutral
Next game: Unknown (injury)

Dillon Gabriel (Oregon)

Predictive Stats

Notes: Gabriel has two factors working against him: His age (he’ll be 24 on draft day), and his size (6-foot, 200 pounds). But when it comes to executing from the quarterback position, there aren’t many in the country doing it better. Gabriel actually compared favorably to the top quarterback prospects in the 2024 draft class, and I was a bit disappointed when he returned to school.

His size and age could wind up making him a slider in the draft — or rather, the NFL will likely value prospects with greater athletic upside more highly. However, Gabriel is probably the biggest reason why Oregon is the top ranked team in the nation.

Stock: Up
Next game: Michigan vs. (1) Oregon — Saturday, 11/2 — CBS, 3:30 p.m.