Fantasy Football ‘24: Week 8 Fantasy preview—start/sit, and more

Welcome to Week 8! We’re now past the mid-point of the fantasy football regular season, and almost at that marker for the NFL season. That happened fast.

If this was Sesame Street, I’d tell you that the word of the day is “receivers”. Over the past 10 or so days, we’ve had two things happening at once: Veteran receivers being traded/shopped, and prominent ones suffering injuries. DeAndre Hopkins to the Chiefs is the latest trade, and Cooper Kupp (who is going to play Thursday night) is reportedly on the trading block. That’s on top of Davante Adams and Amari Cooper being moved last week. Those transaction-based news items are the bread surrounding a horrible injury sandwich at the position. Brandon Aiyuk, Chris Godwin, Mike Evans, D.K. Metcalf, and Zay Flowers all left their Week 7 games after suffering injuries of varying severity. That’s on top of the Saints announcing before Week 7 that Rashid Shaheed was done for the year, and the league handing a two-game suspension to Jameson Williams on Monday (and it sure looked like he started serving it on Sunday).

On the positive side, a few big-name wide receivers are returning to our lives this week. I already told you about Kupp (and Puka Nacua will return this week too). Tua Tagovailoa is expected back on Sunday, meaning Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle can find their way back into starting lineups. The bottom line is that the board is in motion at the WR position, and these developments have an impact not only on those receivers, but on other receivers and QBs. For my take on the free agent opportunities at the position, see my Week 8 Waiver Wire column.

Stats of the Week:

Lamar Jackson is now 23-1 vs. NFC teams for his career.

Jackson currently sits at the top of the league in fantasy points per game (FPPG), at 25.7. His teammate Derrick Henry is third, at 22.4.

Patrick Mahomes has thrown six TD passes and eight INTs, and is averaging fewer FPPG than Bo Nix. Meanwhile, the Chiefs have won 12 straight games (including playoffs)

The Chiefs are 12-1-1 against the spread as underdogs in games started by Mahomes.

The four NFC South teams lost their games by a combined total of 86 points this week.

Brock Bowers is on pace for 114 catches. That total would tie Evan Engram (2023) for the second most ever in a season by a tight end, and break the record for receptions by a rookie, set last year by Nacua (105).

Jared Goff’s last three games: 58-for-68 (85.3%), seven TDs, zero INTs.

Kyren Williams has scored a TD in nine straight games.

Shohei Ohtani is 18 for his last 23 (.782) with runners in scoring position. Just checking to see if you’re paying attention. Plus, it’s absurd.

Guffaws of the Week:

The Giants have scored one TD in four home games. Also, Saquon Barkley had more yards than the entire Giants team on Sunday.

Anthony Richardson has 10 or fewer completions in three of his four starts.

The Browns have scored between 13-18 points in all seven of their games.

The 2023 Jets were 4-3 after seven games, with Zach Wilson at QB. The 2024 Jets are 2-5 after seven games, with Aaron Rodgers at QB.

Week 8, here we go!

Bye Weeks: NONE

Week 8 Rides, Fades and Sleepers

For those who are familiar with this column, you know the drill. For everyone else: The Rides, Fades, and Sleepers is an analysis of players that I think are primed for an especially strong or poor performance, in many cases, as compared to consensus expectations. This isn’t a straight-up Start/Sit exercise, and as a general rule, always start your studs. I’ll rarely list the most obvious names at a position as “Rides” because those players are matchup-proof and are almost always expected to have strong performances, plus you don’t need me or anyone else telling you to start Lamar Jackson, Derrick Henry, or Justin Jefferson. While this analysis is intended for season-long play, it works for DFS formats too. Half PPR scoring and Expert Consensus Rankings (ECR) are used for the column.

Each week, I’m picking a Ride of the Week, a Fade of the Week, and a Sleeper of the Week. The rules are simple. The Ride of the Week can’t be a truly elite option, the Fade of the Week can’t be someone who almost nobody is starting anyway, and the Sleeper of the Week must be an actual sleeper, from down in the rankings.

The Rides, Fades, and Sleepers had a pretty mediocre showing in Week 7, ending a hot streak from the prior three weeks. I’ll try to get back on track this week. You can check my work here: Week 7 Preview.

Ride of the Week:

Joe Mixon (vs. IND). Mixon has been a beast when healthy, and that includes Week 1, when he gashed these same Colts for 159 yards and a TD on 30 carries. He’s scored twice in each of his last two games and is a good bet to find the end zone again this week. The Colts have been a favorable matchup for opposing RBs, and with Nico Collins out, Mixon has become the centerpiece of this offense. His usage in the passing game and lack of real competition on the roster are big plusses.

Fade of the Week:

Marvin Harrison, Jr. (@MIA). Harrison does have four TD catches in six full games played, so there’s always the chance he’ll score. But the volume and productivity just haven’t materialized yet, outside of one quarter of one game. He’s averaging about 3.5 catches for 50 yards in his full games, and that’s not what fantasy managers drafted him to do. Seeing clips of him running open down the field only makes it more frustrating. The Dolphins have allowed the second fewest catches and FPPG to opposing wide receivers, and are tied with the Broncos for fewest TD receptions allowed to the position (two). I get the FOMO of sitting him, but this is a good week to consider other options.

Sleeper of the Week:

Keenan Allen (@WAS). Allen secured all five of his targets and scored two TDs in his last game before the Bye. He’s ranked outside the Top-30 WRs this week and for me that’s too low. If this game turns into a high-scoring affair, Allen should be busy on Sunday. His main drawback is the competition for targets on the Bears. The Commanders’ defense is improving (see below) but they still rank near the bottom of the league in most pass defense categories.

Photo by Vince Mignott/DeFodi Images via Getty Images

Quarterback:

Elite options this week – Lamar Jackson, Josh Allen, Jalen Hurts, Jordan Love, and Joe Burrow;

Rides:

NOTE: All of the elite options listed above have very good matchups this week. Fire them up as you normally would, and enjoy!

Caleb Williams (@WAS). The Commanders have played much better defense since about Week 3 and are no longer a pushover. Still, the Bears are rested, Williams was red-hot before the Bears’ Bye, and you can bet he’ll want to show out in what could be a marquee matchup of the top two picks in the 2024 NFL Draft. Washington has allowed 12 TD passes on the season, which is fourth most in the NFL. If Jayden Daniels plays, this game is must-see TV.

C.J. Stroud (@IND). 86 yards? What in the name of Davis Mills was that? The Packers can make opposing passing games look bad, but that was ridiculous. I think Stroud will get back on track this week, in an important divisional game against a much easier defense. The Colts are bottom-10 in terms of FPPG allowed to opposing quarterbacks, and Stroud has surpassed 20 fantasy points in all three of his career games against Indianapolis.

Sam Darnold (@LAR). The Matt Stafford to Minnesota rumors are a little hard to fathom. The Vikings will get an up-close look at Stafford on Thursday night. Is it an audition? Darnold has cooled off significantly in his last two outings, but I like him to play well this week against a defense that has been pretty mediocre for most of the season. He could also have T.J. Hockenson back this week, which would be a big plus.

Kirk Cousins (vs. TB). 35. That’s how many fantasy points he scored against Tampa Bay in that wild Week 5 affair. Captain Kirk probably won’t need to throw 58 passes again, but he’s still worth beaming up to your ship as a solid play against a secondary that just got smoked again, this time for five TD passes to Lamar Jackson and the Ravens. It’s a short and difficult week for Tampa, and their defense has allowed the second most FPPG to opposing quarterbacks. Kirk is all-systems-go.

Sleepers:

Tua Tagovailoa (vs. ARI). Should you fire Tua up right away? It’s a little risky, and I wouldn’t do it against a tougher defense. But the home matchup is a good one, and I think Miami’s offense will finally wake up with a competent thrower under center for the first time since Week 2. The Cardinals kept the Chargers out of the end zone last week, but Justin Herbert threw for more than 350 yards. Arizona has allowed the fourth most passing yards and sixth most FPPG to opposing quarterbacks. Tua is ranked outside the Top-15 this week and I’ll bet on a Top-12 finish.

Bo Nix (vs. CAR). Nix is figuring it out and playing well, and has averaged a shade under 20 FPPG in his last three starts. In a favorable home matchup against Carolina (fourth most FPPG allowed to opposing QBs), I think he’s a good option. Denver has the third highest implied total of the week (25 points), and this is their last easy matchup for a while. Nix’s ranking of QB20 this week is way too low in my opinion.

Other QBs ranked outside the Top-15 this week that I think can be started if needed (and especially as your second quarterback) include Russell Wilson (vs. NYG), Dak Prescott (@SF, and I actually like his bounce-back potential coming off the Bye), Matthew Stafford (vs. MIN), Aaron Rodgers (@NE, who he played very well against already this season), and (gulp) Jameis Winston (vs. BAL, which is ranked near the bottom in almost every pass defense category).

Fades:

Jayden Daniels (vs. CHI). As great and as efficient as he’s been, I’d be cautious with him this week, if he does start. I don’t expect him to run as much as he normally does, which hurts his fantasy stock, plus there’s a risk of re-injury or aggravation. The Bears are also a very difficult matchup. They’ve allowed the second fewest passing yards, passing TDs (four), and FPPG to opposing QBs.

Kyler Murray (@MIA). My fade call on Murray didn’t work out last week, but only because he broke one long run for a TD (which is something he always has in his bag). His passing totals were once again pedestrian. Miami has quietly been an awful matchup for opposing QBs. They’ve allowed the fewest passing yards, passing TDs (three), and FPPG to opposing QBs. Some of that is attributable to teams not needing to throw on Miami, but still. I’m not saying you should bench Murray, but lower your expectations.

Baker Mayfield (@ATL). Mayfield is the overall #2 scorer in fantasy for the season, and he lit up the Falcons a couple of weeks ago. But without his dynamic duo of Mike Evans and Chris Godwin, I’m pretty nervous about riding his hot hand on a short and trying week for the Bucs, even in a good matchup. I’d look elsewhere this week, while playing wait-and-see with this depleted offense.

Others: Don’t even think about it: Bryce Young (@DEN), Daniel Jones (@PIT), Spencer Rattler (@LAC), Gardner Minshew (vs. KC), and Mason Rudolph/Will Levis (@DET).

Photo by Cooper Neill/Getty Images

Running back:

Elite options this week – Saquon Barkley, Derrick Henry, Breece Hall, and Kyren Williams; the analysis starts below them.

Rides:

Kenneth Walker III (vs. BUF). Walker has been very productive so far this season, even with Seattle being one of the most pass-happy teams in the league. He’s currently the RB4 on a FPPG basis, and has seven total TDs in six games played. With D.K. Metcalf possibly missing this contest, Walker might be asked to do a little more in a game that could be pretty high-scoring (the Vegas total of 47 is third highest on the board). The Bills have allowed the sixth most FPPG to opposing running backs, and the second most fantasy points to RBs in the passing game, where Walker excels.

D’Andre Swift (@WAS). After a terrible start to the season, Swift got it going and was red-hot before Chicago’s Week 7 Bye, scoring more than 19 fantasy points in each of his last three games. Those have all been Top-6 finishes at the position. I don’t see him slowing down much against a Commanders’ defense that is below average against running backs.

Javonte Williams (vs. CAR). Williams is coming off a breakout game in Week 7 against the Saints (25 fantasy points) and there’s reason to expect another good game in a home meeting with the Panthers. Carolina has been the gift that keeps on giving to opposing RBs. They’ve allowed the most FPPG and by far the most rushing TDs (13) to the position. 13 rushing TDs in six games is (checks math) just over two per game, and that’s a LOT. Williams is ranked as the RB20 this week and should be higher.

Others: A lot of RBs have nice matchups this week. Others ranked inside the Top-24 this week who I think can outperform their rankings are Bijan Robinson (@TB), Jordan Mason (vs. DAL), Devon Achane (vs. ARI), Josh Jacobs (@JAC), Aaron Jones (@LAR), Najee Harris (vs. NYG), and Kareem Hunt (@LV).

Sleepers:

Tyler Goodson (@HOU). I don’t know if Jonathan Taylor will return this week, but if he doesn’t, I expect Goodson to again get more touches than presumptive backup Trey Sermon. Goodson has been more efficient and productive. If Taylor is out, he’s a decent Flex option, even in a difficult matchup. If Taylor suits up, I’d pass.

If you’re stuck this week, here are some other lower-ranked running backs (outside the Top-25) that I think you can pencil in if needed: Bucky Irving (@ATL), Rico Dowdle (@SF), Jaylen Warren (vs. NYG), Justice Hill (@CLE), Ray Davis (@SEA), and Raheem Mostert (vs. ARI).

Fades:

Alvin Kamara (@LAC). Kamara just got a shiny new contract extension, but this offense is missing too many pieces for any of it to be started with confidence right now, and that includes Kamara, who is the RB5 on the season on a FPPG basis. He struggled mightily against Denver’s stout defense last week (5.4 fantasy points), and it won’t get easier this week at the Chargers, who’ve allowed the second fewest FPPG to RBs and just two total TDs to the position. He’s also playing with a broken hand. Caveat emptor!

Alexander Mattison (vs. KC). Mattison appears to be the Raiders’ RB to roster, but this week’s matchup is one to avoid. Steve Spagnola’s defense has been outstanding across the board, and they’ve been especially tough on opposing running backs. Backs are averaging a league-worst 3.3 yards per carry and 56 yards per game (per team) against K.C., and they’ve allowed the fewest FPPG to opposing RBs. Pass.

Tony Pollard (@DET). He’ll get the work (although Tyjae Spears may be back for this contest), but it might not matter much in this matchup, which pits one of the very best teams in the NFL against one of the worst. Tennessee is likely to be playing from behind, which is a game script that won’t benefit Pollard. The matchup is no picnic, as Detroit has allowed the third fewest yards per game and FPPG to opposing RBs.

Here are some more Fades: Nick Chubb (vs. BAL—bad matchup and he is still ramping up), Giants’ RBs (@PIT), Zack Moss (vs. PHI), and Chuba Hubbard (@DEN).

Photo by Todd Rosenberg/Getty Images

Wide receiver:

Elite options this week – Ja’Marr Chase, Justin Jefferson, CeeDee Lamb, A.J. Brown, and Tyreek Hill (welcome back, Cheetah); the analysis starts below them.

Rides:

Drake London (vs. TB). London went off when these teams met in Week 5 (12-154-1), and I think you can expect another good day against a reeling Tampa secondary that just got victimized by Baltimore, two weeks after Atlanta had their number.

D.J. Moore (@WAS). You know I’m high on his quarterback, so let’s also ride the top wide receiver in the offense. The Commanders will have their hands full with Chicago’s multitude of weapons, and I think Moore can be counted on for a Top-12 kind of week. The Commanders have allowed the sixth most FPPG and second most TD catches (10) to opposing WRs.

There are a number of receivers ranked from 12-30 that I think should outperform their ranking this week, so I’ll just do a big list of them: Jayden Reed (@JAC), Stefon Diggs and Tank Dell (vs. IND), George Pickens (vs. NYG), Cooper Kupp (vs. MIN), Tee Higgins (vs. PHI), Devonta Smith (@CIN), Jaylen Waddle (vs. ARI), Amari Cooper (@SEA), and Jauan Jennings (vs. DAL, if he plays).

Sleepers (ranked outside the Top 30):

Romeo Doubs (@JAC). It’s hard to predict the Packers’ passing game weapons each week. You know production is coming, but there are just too many good options. Doubs consistently leads the group in snaps and routes run – even after he came off a one-game team suspension. I think he’s a decent play this week against a generous Jacksonville secondary that has allowed the third most passing yards, receiving TDs, and FPPG to opposing WRs.

Jerry Jeudy and Cedric Tillman (vs. BAL). New QB who figures to open it up? Check. Bad pass defense that lost a key piece (Marlon Humphrey) last week? Check. A Ravens’ team coming off a huge prime-time win on a short week? Check. Those factors all favor these two as upside plays this week. I think the Browns will come to play. Baltimore has allowed the most FPPG and TD catches (11) to opposing WRs.

Other WRs ranked outside the top-30 this week that I think you can go with if you’re in need: Khalil Shakir and Keon Coleman (@SEA), Tyler Lockett (vs. BUF), Jalen McMillan (@ATL), Jalen Tolbert (@SF),Ricky Pearsall (vs. DAL).

Fades:

Terry McLaurin (vs. CHI). He’s been on a great run of late, but I’d be cautious this week. The situation at quarterback poses a risk, and the Bears are a nasty matchup. Chicago has allowed the fourth fewest FPPG to opposing wide receivers, and just three TD catches to the position.

Diontae Johnson (@DEN). Bryce Young is back, they’re on the road, and the opponent is Denver (fewest FPPG and just two TD catches allowed to opposing wide receivers). That’s three strikes against. True story: The Colts and Panthers are two teams whose receivers are decidedly more playable when the backup QB is in. Speaking of which…

Michael Pittman and Josh Downs (@HOU). Anthony Richardson is completing very few passes, which makes any piece of the Indianapolis passing game a big risk. Pass.

Christian Watson (@JAC). It’s a great matchup, and there’s always the chance of a big play or two, but Watson only played about 50% of the snaps last week and garnered just two targets. Maybe that was in part because of his lingering ankle injury, or maybe it’s because Dontayvion Wicks deserves the snaps he’s getting as a perimeter receiver opposite Doubs. Either way, Watson is very inconsistent, and hard to trust in lineups. I get the FOMO, but I think he’s a very risky start.

More Fades: Christian Kirk (vs. GB), Puka Nacua (vs. MIN, and on a snap count so I’d wait and see with him), and Saints’ WRs (@LAC).

Tight end:

Elite options this week – George Kittle (assuming he plays) Brock Bowers; the analysis starts below them.

Rides:

David Njoku (vs. BAL). I listed Njoku as a Ride last week and he hit big, with a 10-76-1 line, on 14 targets. I was a bit hesitant to make that call with Deshaun Watson at quarterback, but with Amari Cooper shipped off to Buffalo, Njoku is the top receiving option on the team. With Winston in for the injured Watson, I feel even better about Njoku going forward. Start him with confidence as long as he can stay healthy. This week’s matchup is a very good one, to boot. The Ravens have allowed the most catches and yards to opposing TEs.

Kyle Pitts (vs. TB). Is Pitts becoming a thing, at long last? Considering the overall weakness of the TE position, I’d say yes, as Pitts has topped 65 receiving yards and eight fantasy points in three straight contests, after putting up a zero in Week 4. Pitts had his best yardage total of the season (88) against these same Bucs in Week 5, and while I don’t expect a shootout this time around, Pitts is still a Top-8 option this week.

Tucker Kraft (@JAC). Kraft is a bit of a boom-bust option, but he’s worth starting given the upside in this offense, and especially in favorable matchups like this one. The Jaguars have allowed the fourth most FPPG to opposing tight ends. In the same game, I think Evan Engram (vs. GB) is also a good play this week. The Packers have been a pretty tough matchup for opposing WRs, but have allowed the seventh most FPPG to opposing TEs.

Other TEs in the Top-15 who I think have a good shot to outperform their weekly ranking: Cole Kmet (@WAS), Cade Otton (@ATL), and Jake Ferguson (@SF).

Sleepers:

Noah Fant (vs. BUF). Fant has been coming on of late (60+ yards in two straight games), and if D.K. Metcalf misses this game, he should be busier than usual. He’s a decent dart throw if you need tight end help this week.

Other TEs ranked outside the Top-12 that I think can be slotted in this week if needed: Dalton Schultz (vs. IND) and Jonnu Smith (vs. ARI).

Fades:

Sam LaPorta (vs. TEN). What in the name of bitten-off kneecaps is going on with Big Sam? He’s the TE20 on the season and outside of a long TD on a trick play in Week 6 he’s done very little. That might be because the Lions haven’t needed much from him. With Jameson Williams out maybe he gets a few more looks, but for now he’s basically an excellent sixth offensive lineman on a team that runs the ball a lot and no longer gets into shootouts.

Pat Freiermuth (vs. NYG). It’s just not happening so far this season for Patty Fries. The switch to Russell Wilson should benefit him long-term, but it didn’t last week, and I’d continue sitting him until he does something. The Giants have been a tough matchup for TEs (fourth fewest FPPG to the position).

Mike Gesicki (vs. PHI). Gesicki is hard to trust in general, and it’s a tough matchup. The Eagles have allowed the fewest catches, yards and FPPG to opposing TEs (and zero TDs).

Other TE Fades (of players you could be considering): Tyler Conklin (@NE), Grant Calcaterra (@CIN) and Zach Ertz (vs. CHI).

PK and D/ST Streamers (ranked outside the top-12): See my Week 8 Waivers column.

I’m out. Good luck in Week 8!

***This column appears each Thursday right here at Big Blue View. Each Monday, my Waiver Wire column appears here, and on Fridays you can find my weekly FanDuel Props of the week for the Giants, also right here. ***