The 2-5 New York Giants travel to Pittsburgh for a Monday Night Football showdown against the 5-2 Steelers. The Steelers are 5.5-point favorites, and the Over/Under is a week-low 36.5 points. Russell Wilson and the Steelers defeated the Jets, 37-15, on Sunday Night Football in Week 7.
The Giants’ offense reverted to 2020-2021 form. They’re tied for 31st with the New England Patriots in points per game; only the Tua Tagovailoa-less Miami Dolphins are worse on a points-per-game basis. The Giants have not scored 100 points through seven games. They have 10 total points in the last two contests.
Andrew Thomas’ foot injury compounds the offensive issues. Josh Ezeudu started at left tackle in Week 7 and struggled early. The pass-happy game plan did not help Ezeudu, and the Giants had to allocate multiple tight ends to his side through most of the game. It was another nightmare for Brian Daboll and Co.
Still, the Cincinnati Bengals and the Philadelphia Eagles were bottom-half defenses entering their matchups against the Giants at MetLife Stadium. Now, the Giants need to travel to Pittsburgh for a primetime game with Daniel Jones starting at quarterback. Jones is 1-15 in primetime games, including the playoffs. The Giants have not beaten Pittsburgh since 2008. They’ve dropped their last three matchups against the Rooney run franchise.
John Mara would like nothing more than to silence the critics and turn down the heat on his employees. The Mara and Rooney families are related. The daughters of Vice President of Player Evaluation — Timothy Christopher Mara — are the great-grandaughters of Giants’ founder Tim Mara (Father of Wellington) and Pittsburgh Steelers founder Art Rooney.
That’s enough lineage for one day. Let’s get to some Pittsburgh Steelers defensive statistics.
Defensive statistics
EPA: 5th in defensive EPA
Passing EPA: 16th
Rushing EPA: 1st
Scoring defense: 2nd (14.4 points per game)
Yards allowed: 8th (298.3 yards per game)
Passing yards allowed: 22nd (217.3 PYPG)
Rushing yards allowed: 3rd (81 RYPG)
Blitz rate: 27th (18.7% blitz rate)
Pressure rate: 22nd (18.7%)
Missed tackles: 2nd BEST (Just 26 MT)
YAC Allowed: 3rd WORST (862 YAC)
Sacks: Tied 18 in NFL (15 sacks)
The Giants have more than doubled their sack totals. Still, Pittsburgh’s ferocious defense is specifically stout against the run. First overall in rushing EPA, while allowing the third least yards on the deck. They’re second in rushing yards per attempt, allowing just 3.6 YPC; for reference, the Giants have now allowed the MOST rushing yards per attempt with 5.4 YPC average. Pittsburgh has only allowed three rushing touchdowns on the season. Statistically, the Giants will have a better chance scoring through the air.
The Steelers’ defense ranks among the top five in red zone touchdown percentage, allowing a touchdown on just 42.86% of red zone trips. The Denver Broncos, Philadelphia Eagles, and New Orleans Saints are ranked ahead of Teryl Austin’s unit. Conversely, the Giants’ offense ranks 29th with a 42.11% red zone touchdown rate.
Pittsburgh is tied for third with nine interceptions. The Minnesota Vikings and New Orleans Saints are ahead of the Steelers. The Giants’ defense has only one interception on the season (Darius Muasau, Week 1).
Teryl Austin
Defensive coordinator Teryl Austin was promoted to the position after the 2021 season. He spent the 2019-2021 season as the Senior defensive assistant and secondary coach. Before that, he was the defensive coordinator for the Cincinnati Bengals (2018) and the Detroit Lions (2014-2017).
Austin has elite personnel on his defensive line and in his secondary. He has fast, physical linebackers who operate well when the large bodies up front can hold up climbing linemen. The defense is not complex, nor is it one that relies on unique pass-rushes or blitzing. Star pass-rusher T.J. Watt only aligns on the left side of the defense, meaning he’ll see a lot of the right tackle — CONCERNING!
Austin was maligned for not blitzing on the fourth-and-4 game-winning touchdown catch by Jalen Tolbert against the Dallas Cowboys in Week 5. Here’s his response when asked about it:
The latter half of the video is telling:” Whether we blitz or not depends a lot on the quarterback.”
Teams have successfully hit Jones early in games, leading to a more contained offense over the last two weeks. Austin is typically reserved and relies on his four-man pass rush, but he may deviate slightly against the Giants.
Still, Austin probably doesn’t have to blitz frequently with his pass rush. T.J. Watt and Alex Highsmith are an elite one-two punch. EDGE rusher Nick Herbig was already ruled out for Week 8 with his hamstring injury.
Austin runs a base 3-4 defense with a 2-4-5 nickel package and the 2-3-6 BIG DIME package. Cam Heyward eats blocks in the middle of the offensive line, with Larry Ogunjobi and Keeanu Benton as the explosive penetrators from the interior. They’re a tough — STRONG — unit up front, and few teams ever find success running against them.
Austin isn’t exotic on the back end of his defense. He runs a lot of middle-of-the-field closed Cover-3 match or Cover-1 man, and his split-safety looks are typically Cover-2 or Cover-6 (quarter, quarter, half). Some of his Cover-2 looks are TAMPA with the deep middle hook, but the defense coverage isn’t complex.
Austin is not shy to press his corners up on the line of scrimmage in Cover-1 or Cover-3; he’ll also press bail as a change-up when it is zone. Jones’ struggles are more evident against zone coverage, but Pittsburgh does love Cover-1. If Austin employs a Cover-1-oriented approach, it’ll be contingent on Daboll to condense the formations and create space through man-beaters.
Personnel and Giants’ plan
Time will be a problem for the Giants, who will likely be in six-plus man protection for much of the game. Watt leads the team with 4.5 sacks; he also has 16 pressures. Watt is frequently chipped and will see the Giants’ right tackle all game. Cameron Heyward leads the Steelers with 22 pressures; he has three sacks and can win in multiple ways — it’s not just power:
The Giants will attempt to slow Watt down in a similar fashion to this play from Jets’ running back Breece Hall:
Alex Highsmith is opposite of Watt and has unique bend for the position. He’ll test Jermaine Eluemunor’s high side often; that, plus Watt and Heyward crashing the pocket, leaves little options for quarterbacks that hold onto the football too long. Defensive lineman Larry Ogunjobi has 10 pressures and two sacks on the season. He’s the penetrating three-technique, along with Keeanu Benton, who has nine pressures. Both players are dangerous on the interior. Isaiahh Loudermilk, Dean Lowry, Jeremiah Moon, and Ade Ogundeji are four rotational players upfront. Montravius Adams has played 108 snaps on the season but saw one play against the Jets.
I’d love to see a bounce-back game from John Michael Schmitz and the Giants’ interior offensive line, but this Pittsburgh front is one of the toughest foes against the run and pass. New York all but abandoned the run early in the last two games. Jones passed often on the RPOs in the first half against Cincinnati, and Daboll just failed to call running back rushing plays against the Eagles.
The Giants can attempt to run against Pittsburgh, but it’ll be tough. Pre-snap eye-candy and quick passes near the line of scrimmage with diversions to occupy the eyes of rookie Payton Wilson and explosive veteran Patrick Queen at the second level could be ways to extend drives and keep the defense on the field.
From a coverage standpoint, Tyrone Tracy Jr. may not be as much of a mismatch nightmare against this linebacking crew; still, featuring him and Devin Singletary early could help the Giants’ offense settle down. It’s a tall task, but protection is critical, and keeping the offense on the field for more than three plays must be a focal point.
Elandon Roberts is the Steelers’ third linebacker who plays more in rushing situations. He’s very strong at the point of attack. The Giants could look to exploit him if Austin gives him man coverage responsibilities in Cover-1 on first-and-ten. Tyrone Tracy Jr. could win that matchup in man.
Daboll can attempt more three-man route concepts to flood zone coverage and give Jones more options with six-plus in protection; the Giants should have an initial six or seven in protection until the tight ends leak — I’m also advocating this against a defense that typically sends four but the Giants need the early mathematical advantage in protection to prevent drive-destroying sacks. Any early rhythm established by the Giants’ offense is a win.
Joey Porter Jr. is a quality press coverage cornerback with elite length. He will become acquainted with Malik Nabers, who can win the matchup with his superior route running and explosiveness. Nabers would do well to avoid the jam and try to use his separation skills rather than his contested catch ability against a physical player like Porter Jr.
Porter Jr. has allowed a 65.4% catch rate against the opposing number one wide receivers. He did a solid job against the Jets last week. CeeDee Lamb is the best receiver he’s played this season, and he only saw him on 21 routes. Porter Jr. allowed four catches on five targets for 35 yards in Week 5.
Porter Jr. is known for his harassing jam, but he is disciplined when off in Cover-3. Quick passes into his soft-leverage could be the best course of action for the Giants. Although he can pack a punch as a tackler, he’s not the most secure; he has missed six of the Steelers’ 26 missed tackles (a 21.1% MTR), and quick hitches to Nabers before the curl/flat defender can get outside is one way for the Giants to move the ball. A lot of receptions allowed by Porter Jr. are quick passes against off-leverage outside the numbers. Daboll should attack this Cover-3 vulnerability.
The explosive former Carolina Panthers’ CB Donte Jackson is on the other side. He’s allowed just a 56.7% catch rate with three passes defended this season, but he also allowed three touchdowns. Nabers or Darius Slayton can take advantage of this matchup, albeit he’s still a solid player.
Safety Minkah Fitzpatrick is one of the best backend players in the league. He will roam the middle of the field in MOFC looks, and he’s a sensational ally defender coming downhill. Fitzpatrick and Daboll know each other well from their time at Alabama. DeShon Elliott is the other safety who is also a sure-tackler.
Undrafted rookie Beanie Bishop Jr. had a career day against Aaron Rodgers and the Jets. He operates their nickel and made this impressive interception on Sunday Night Football:
Bishop Jr. has played the seventh-most snaps on the defense. He’s allowed just a 65.7% completion rate from the slot, with two passes defended and two interceptions (both against the Jets). New York could look to test him in 3×1 sets with Nabers as the No. 3 WR, but he’ll likely see a lot of Wan’Dale Robinson.
Final thoughts
The Giants offense has no identity and can’t move the football or sustain drives. They’re going into terrible towel country when the lights are the brightest to play one of the league’s best defenses. I’m not optimistic about the Giants’ chances to move the football or create explosive plays. It could be a long Monday night for the Giants.
