Can they bounce back from a loss on a short week on the road?
The Minnesota Vikings have reached the point in their schedule where they are not facing a Super Bowl contender just about every week and now have a month-long slate against teams unlikely to make the postseason or are on the verge of preparing for next season. That includes the LA Rams who at 2-4 are longshots to make the postseason and are on the verge of trading a core but aging player in Cooper Kupp for future draft capital.
That’s not to say the Rams are going to lay down for the Vikings on Thursday night. I expect they’ll look at what worked for the Lions on Sunday and try the same plays. They’ve got the quarterback and receivers and running back to do so effectively.
The Rams might have a tougher time of it defensively, but a couple bad decisions or bad bounces for the Vikings and things could be looking up for the Rams. The Rams took the Lions to overtime week one on the road, so they have it in them to put up a good fight. They also beat the 49ers, so if they’re on their game, they can beat just about anyone.
But the biggest test for the Vikings may be more of an internal one.
Can the Vikings Bounce Back?
The Vikings just came off of a loss in a big division game against arguably their principal rival in the division and conference at this point, and now face a road game on a short week. All the conditions for a let-down game are there. The Rams may not be the better team, but they’re playing with their backs against the wall at home, fighting for relevance. Another loss could lead to a lost season while a win could give them hope, especially if they were to knock off a 5-1 team in the Vikings. Sean McVay could be gearing up his team to make a stand against his old offensive coordinator and save his season.
Meanwhile the Vikings are at an emotional low for the season, coming off their only loss and having to prepare on a short week before hitting the road. It wouldn’t be surprising if, whether unconsciously or consciously, they look ahead to their mini-bye week and the chance to recharge- leading to a poor performance on Thursday night.
Many teams can fall into that sort of trap.
The good news is that the Vikings have a lot of veteran leadership on the team who are wary of just that sort of trap, and based on player interviews this week, do not appear to be dwelling on the loss nor dismissive of the challenges of playing again on a short week. The team itself is reasonably healthy outside of Blake Cashman as well.
But they still need to put their best foot forward on Thursday night and take care of business in a game they should win. That can be easier said than done, despite best intentions. Showing that ability will be another good sign for this Vikings team, while a letdown game could lead to concerns about the team’s ability to deal with adversity.
A Look at the Matchup
There are several matchup advantages for the Vikings, although I would expect the Rams offense to be better given the return of Cooper Kupp, and potentially Puka Nacua.
Rams Offense vs. Vikings Defense
The Vikings’ defense ranks first in DVOA at -30.4%, while the Rams offense ranks 17th at +1.9%. That should give the Vikings the advantage, even with the return of one or two of the Rams’ top receivers and the Vikings being without Blake Cashman for another game.
More specifically, the Vikings pass defense, also ranked first at -31.1%, faces off against the Rams pass offense, ranked 21st at +9.3%. The Rams backup receivers have been decent in the absence of Kupp and Nacua, but clearly having their top receiver(s) back should help them offensively.
The Vikings’ defense also ranks first in rush defense DVOA at -28.7%, while the Rams rush offense ranks 11th at +1.5%. Kyren Williams is a good back in the league, but the Rams’ offensive line is middle-of-the-pack as run blockers. How they react against Brian Flores’ early down blitzes will have a big impact on their success in both the pass and run game.
Lastly, while Matthew Stafford has had an impressive career, all things considered, he hasn’t started the season strong. He has just an 83.4 passer rating for the season, with just three touchdowns and three big-time throws compared to four interceptions and nine turnover-worthy plays. He’s faced pressure on 32.6% of his dropbacks and has just a 29.4 PFF grade when under pressure, with just a 51.1% adjusted completion percentage and a 41.7 passer rating. He’s performed similarly whether blitzed or not. So, getting pressure on Stafford will likely be a key for the Vikings.
According to NextGenStats, the Vikings defense has generated the 6th-highest unblocked pressure rate (9.1%) and the second-most unblocked sacks (6) in the NFL this season.
The Rams offense has allowed the 9th-highest unblocked pressure rate in 2024 (7.9%), including the 2nd-highest unblocked pressure rate (23.2%) against the blitz. Matthew Stafford has been sacked by unblocked rushers 4 times, 5th-most among quarterbacks.
Vikings Offense vs. Rams Defense
The Vikings rank 15th in offensive DVOA at +2.3% while the Rams defense ranks 28th in DVOA at +9.8% (negative is better defensively). So, the Vikings should have an advantage offensively as this is the worst defense they’ve faced so far this season.
More specifically, the Vikings rank 9th in passing offense DVOA at +28.9%, while the Rams rank 24th in pass defense DVOA at +14.5% (again, negative is better defensively). Additionally, the Vikings rank 17th in rushing DVOA at -5.5%, while the Rams rushing defense ranks 26th in rush defense at +5.5%.
The Rams pass defense has done a good job against wide receivers so far this year as measured in DVOA (top ten against WR1s and WR3s, 20th against WR2s) but ranks last and 30th in DVOA allowed to tight ends and running backs.
All of this suggests the Vikings would do well to operate primarily out of 12 personnel (two TEs) or 21 personnel (RB, FB, TE) sets against the Rams, which would put them in base defense. That would allow the Vikings to take advantage of the Rams’ matchup issues covering TEs and RBs, while also taking advantage of the Rams’ relatively weak rush defense.
According to NextGenStats, The Vikings have gained more yards than expected at the highest rate in the league against base defenses this season (43.3%). The Vikings have recorded an explosive run against base defense on 14.7% of attempts in 2024 (6th-highest). The Rams have used a base defense against the run on 56.8% of rush attempts this season (3rd-highest in NFL).
Bottom Line
The Vikings have matchup issues they can exploit on both sides of the ball against the Rams, but offensively it would mean taking a different approach than they’ve done so far this season, which has been focused mainly on targeting wide receivers rather than tight ends or running backs in the passing game. A more diversified approach would’ve helped them against both the Jets and Lions, as there were opportunities for big plays to TEs and RBs missed in both of those games. The return of T.J. Hockenson would be helpful in that regard as well, should he be activated for the game.
Defensively, the Vikings need to learn from their mistakes against the Lions that led to explosive plays. Undoubtedly the Rams will test them in that regard. But otherwise, the Vikings match up well against the Rams if they can avoid the mistakes and/or adapt to the counters the Lions employed against them.
The Vikings are currently a 3-point road favorite against the Rams on Thursday night, with a 48-point over/under. Straight-up the Vikings are -162, implying a 61.8% chance to win.
