Lions @ Vikings: A Preview

The reigning NFC North champion Detroit Lions travel to US Bank stadium to take on the undefeated Minnesota Vikings in an NFC North showdown between the two best teams in the NFC in record, total DVOA, and point differential.

Let’s take a look at the matchup.

Lions Offense vs. Vikings Defense

This is the marquee matchup.

The Vikings’ defense ranks first in DVOA by a country mile after five games at -39.6%, while the Lions’ offense ranks fourth in DVOA at 17.2%.

But it’s worth pointing out that the Lions’ offense has not faced a top ten defense yet, while the Vikings’ defense has faced a couple. In DVOA terms, here are the rankings of the defenses the Lions have faced so far:

• LA Rams: 30th in DVOA, 31st in EPA/play
• Tampa Bay Bucs: 11th in DVOA, 16th in EPA/play (the Lions lost that game)
• Arizona Cardinals: 23rd in DVOA, 28th in EPA/play
• Seattle Seahawks: 18th in DVOA, 18th in EPA/play
• Dallas Cowboys: 27th in DVOA, 27th in EPA/play

The Vikings’ defense ranks first in both DVOA and EPA/play, so by far the best defense the Lions have faced this season.

By contrast, the Vikings defense has faced the following ranked offenses this season:

• NY Giants: 19th in DVOA, 24th in EPA/play
• San Francisco 49ers: 7th in DVOA, 5th in EPA/play
• Houston Texans: 17th in DVOA, 13th in EPA/play
• Green Bay Packers: 5th in DVOA, 10th in EPA/play
• NY Jets: 21st in DVOA, 22nd in EPA/play

The Lions’ offense ranks 4th in DVOA and 3rd in EPA/play, so the toughest offense the Vikings’ have faced but not by much compared to the 49ers and Packers.

Beyond the overall comparison in quality of opponent faced, there are some particular matchups and scheme design topics to delve into.

Lions Rushing Offense vs. Vikings Rushing Defense

The Lions have the second-highest EPA/rush so far this season, but have faced the 32nd, 30th, 29th, 27th, and 18th best run defenses so far in EPA/rush allowed. The Vikings rank 2nd. A big key to the Lions offense is being able to run the ball effectively. It sets up favorable pass situations for Goff and can wear down defenses over the course of the game. They have two good backs in David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs, but it is Montgomery they use primarily on early downs.

The Lions have a top run-blocking offensive line (pass blocking too), but if RG Kevin Zeitler can’t go, as looks increasingly likely, his backup Kayode Awosika is a clear downgrade.

Lions Early Down Offense vs. Vikings Early Down Defense

While rushing is a significant part of the Lions’ early down offense, they also have been more effective passing the ball on early downs as well. For example, Jared Goff has the top EPA+CPOE composite on passes thrown on first and second down. On third and fourth downs he ranks 23rd. The Lions like to run play-action on early downs (they have the highest play-action pass rate in the league) and have had success taking deep shots in these situations. But the upshot here is that Goff doesn’t do nearly as well in known passing situations.

What could make life difficult for Goff on early downs against the Vikings’ defense is that Brian Flores likes to blitz on early downs at the highest rate in the league- nearly 50%. That can also slow down the Lions’ rushing attack. So, just how successful the Vikings are blitzing on early downs could have a big impact on how productive the Lions offense is.

The Lions like to use jumbo packages on early downs to encourage defenses into single-high safety looks (and Goff does well against those looks) by going with condensed sets and double tight-end packages. They then run play-action out of that and like to take deeper shots down the field. Overall, the Lions haved used 12 personnel (1 RB, 2 TEs) on 30% of snaps this season- highest in the league.

So, Flores’ blitzes vs. the Lions jumbo personnel on early downs could be the interesting matchup here. Flores will have some effective counters that will allow effective run defense while also keeping two high safeties to keep Goff in check on deep shots. He has versatile personnel to do so up front. But it will be an interesting chess match.

Lions Passing Offensive vs. Vikings Passing Defense

Jared Goff has performed much better against single-high safety coverage compared to two-high safety coverages- which is what the Vikings run most of the time. The Vikings ran single-high safety coverages just 26% of the time through five games. So, if the Vikings can do well on early downs and then play their typical two-high safety-based coverage on third down they could have some success getting off the field.

The Vikings have used dime personnel (6 DBs) on 85% of 3rd down snaps so far this season but haven’t blitzed as much on third down (28%), electing to play coverage in passing situations. That’s led to the fourth best 3rd down conversion rate allowed at just 31%.

Overall, the scheme matchup here is a tough one for the Lions. Every defense they’ve played so far plays predominantly (over 50%) single-high-safety coverages, which Goff has done well against, but the Vikings play predominantly two-high-safety coverages.

Mina Kimes and Ben Solak go through all this in their preview of the Vikings-Lions matchup:

Vikings Offense vs. Lions Defense

The Vikings offense ranks 18th in DVOA and 18th in EPA/play. However, they’ve faced some tough defenses so far this season:

• NY Giants: 17th in DVOA, 15th in EPA/play
• San Francisco 49ers: 5th in DVOA, 11th in EPA/play
• Houston Texans: 2nd in DVOA, 10th in EPA/play
• Green Bay Packers: 15th in DVOA, 8th in EPA/play
• NY Jets: 16th in DVOA, 7th in EPA/play

Detroit ranks 4th in DVOA and 6th EPA/play, so right up there with the 49ers, Texans, and Jets defensively.

By contrast, the Lions’ defense has faced the following offenses:

• LA Rams: 14th in DVOA, 17th in EPA/play
• Tampa Bay Bucs: 10th in DVOA, 7th in EPA/play (the Lions lost that game)
• Arizona Cardinals: 15th in DVOA, 14th in EPA/play
• Seattle Seahawks: 11th in DVOA, 15th in EPA/play
• Dallas Cowboys: 25th in DVOA, 25th in EPA/play

So the Vikings offense is near the average in overall efficiency of what the Lions’ defense has faced so far this season.

But there is a significant caveat.

The Lions achieved their high defensive rankings largely due to the efforts of their star edge rusher Aiden Hutchinson, who is now on IR. And while they have other good players- DT Alim McNeil, both safeties Kerby Joseph and Brian Branch- it’s difficult to overstate Hutchinson’s importance to their defense.

For example, according to NextGenStats, Hutchinson has 30 of the Lions’ 69 quarterback pressures on the season- 43%- and half of their sacks. The Lions rank 24th in quarterback pressure rate with Aiden Hutchinson. What happens without him?

Vikings Pass Offense vs. Lions Pass Defense

The Lions have played man coverage 37% of the time (35% Cover-1) so far this season. And they’ve played single-high safety-based coverage over half (53%) of the time.

However, in the absence of Aiden Hutchinson and the pressure he brings, will they play man coverage as much? That becomes a bigger ask for rookie Terrion Arnold, who’s struggled in man coverage and been forced to grab and interfere. In fact, he leads the league in penalty yardage after five games with 118 yards on five defensive pass interference penalties, two defensive holding, and a facemask penalty. It may also be a bigger ask for Carleton Davis, who while likely to play, is dealing with an injured quad.

Prior to the Jets game, Sam Darnold was leading the league in yards per attempt (12.3), TD passes (9) and total EPA (+27.7) against man coverage. He went just 2 for 10 for 53 yards against the Jets. The Jets, however, have two top corners in DJ Reed and Sauce Gardner. The Lions’ corners are mid-tier or worse.

The Lions may be forced to play more zone coverage and/or blitz more to get pressure on Darnold. However, Darnold has a 132.1 passer rating when blitzed, so that comes with risks. Not blitzing Darnold could lead to clean pockets where Darnold (like all quarterbacks) are most effective.

The Vikings have been using Justin Jefferson out of the slot 33% of the time so far this season, which is the highest it’s been. However, wherever Jefferson lines up, I would not be surprised to see safety Brian Branch shadow him over the top. That will open up opportunities for Jordan Addison, Jalen Nailor, and tight ends as well.

Vikings Rush Offense vs. Lions Run Defense

The Lions have the 10th best EPA/rush allowed so far this season at -0.09. By comparison the Packers have the 7th best at -0.13, the Jets are 13th at -0.05, the 49ers are 15th at -0.04. The Vikings have not been as effective running the ball the last two games, against the Jets due to the absence of Aaron Jones, and against the Packers perhaps due to a lack of overall effort during garbage time, but also because the Packers made a point of stopping Jones and preventing him having a Lambeau leap and having a good day generally. The Packers also have a good run stopping front.

The Lions have two good run stopping tackles in Alim McNeil and D.J. Reader, but their defensive ends are more suspect, especially Levi Onwuzurike, who is replacing Aiden Hutchinson in base defense and moves inside in nickel, with James Houston on the edge. But running off tackle on either side could be a good matchup for the Vikings. Christian Darrisaw and Blake Brandel have both been good run blockers, as has Brian O’Neill. And with Josh Oliver at tight end as well, there is an opportunity for the Vikings there.

Aaron Jones is likely to start and has been averaging 4.9 yards per carry, so if he can replicate that performance, the Vikings should be effective in the run game and is the best back the Lions have faced so far this season in EPA/rush.

Bottom Line

The Vikings’ defense matchups well against the Lions’ offense, which is the strongest unit on their team. It will be a tough battle, but the Vikings present some challenges defensively that the Lions haven’t faced this season, and most likely will slow them down. The Lions were able to have their way with depleted defenses in Dallas and Seattle their last two games but will find it a lot tougher going against the Vikings on the road.

On the other side of the ball, the big question is how well the Lions’ defense will hold up without their star player Aiden Hutchinson. Without him the Lions pass rush is likely to be below average, unless they blitz regularly, which could expose them to downfield shots by Sam Darnold, who’s generated some big plays against the blitz.

Turnovers will likely have a big impact on the game as well, as they usually do. Both Jared Goff and Sam Darnold have four interceptions this season, and it would not be surprising if both had another one on Sunday. The Vikings have never lost under Kevin O’Connell when not losing the turnover battle.

Overall, the Vikings are a 1.5-point home favorite against the Lions on Sunday, and there is reason to believe the overall matchup favors the Vikings, particularly with the Lions missing Aiden Hutchinson.

Here’s one very encouraging stat: teams that are 5-0 or better, coming off a bye-week and playing at home are 9-0. And the average margin of victory? 19.8 points.

Stay tuned.

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The Vikings are 1.5-point home favorites on Sunday against the Lions. They will…

• 71%

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  (5 votes)

• 0%

  Win but not beat the spread

  (0 votes)

• 28%

  Lose

  (2 votes)

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