Giants-Eagles: What to expect when the Giants have the ball

Can the Giants finally score some points at home?

The 2-4 New York Giants host the 3-2 Philadelphia Eagles in a pivotal Week 7 matchup. Last week, the Eagles narrowly defeated the Cleveland Browns, 20-16, and the Giants lost to the Bengals, 17-7. This, of course, is Saquon Barkley’s return to the Meadowlands against his former team.

The Giants are three-point home dogs, and the Over/Under is 43.5 points. The Giants’ offense currently ranks 16th in total yards and 29th in points scored this season, averaging just 16 per game. New York has scored one home touchdown in three games.

Malik Nabers may return from his two-game absence, but he has not officially cleared the concussion protocol. Unfortunately for New York, star left tackle Andrew Thomas was placed on IR after having foot surgery.

Josh Ezeudu will start at left tackle. He started five games at left tackle after Thomas’ hamstring injury last year. He surrendered 12 pressures and five sacks in 169 pass-blocking snaps during that span. Ezeudu suffered a foot injury and was placed on IR during the first quarter of his fifth start (against the Bills).

The Giants will have to alter their game plan with the loss of Andrew Thomas. New York ran 11 personnel at a 77% rate in Week 6 against the Bengals. Brian Daboll would likely enjoy running 11 personnel and forcing Vic Fangio to fit the run out of nickel, but — depending on Ezeudu’s performance — we may see more 12 personnel and help to the left side against edge defenders Josh Sweat and Bryce Huff.

From a personnel standpoint, the chess match between Daboll and Vic Fangio will be fun to monitor throughout the contest. Here are Philadelphia’s defensive statistics:

Statistics

The Eagles’ defense ranks 20th in yards against per game, surrendering 341.4 YPG. The Giants rank tenth in that category at 314 YPG. The Eagles’ defense surrendered 22.4 points per game, 14th in the league. The Giants rank ninth overall, surrendering 20.2 PPG.

The Eagles allow 123 rushing yards per game and 218.4 passing yards per game. The Giants are better in each category. The Eagles have only 11 sacks on the season, placing them in the bottom third of the league. The Giants lead the league with 26 sacks.

Philadelphia blitzes at a 25.1% rate and gets pressure on just 17.1% of their opponent’s dropbacks. Their blitz rate is middle of the pack, and their pressure rate is 25th in the league. It’s safe to say the Eagles’ defense is not a vaunted unit that helped them earn an NFC title two years ago.

Sweat leads the team with 21 pressures. Sensational second-year defensive lineman Jalen Carter is second on the team with 18 pressures. No one else on the team has double-digit pressures, and no one has more than two sacks. Sweat, linebacker Zack Baun, and IDL Milton Williams have more than one sack.

Eagles defense vs. Giants offense

Philadelphia does not have an aggressive approach. They often play off-leverage and run many middle-of-the-field open looks with palms/quarters. Like the Giants, their safeties run split-read coverages that could provide lighter boxes for Devin Singletary and Tyrone Tracy Jr. New York attacked these looks well against Seattle two weeks ago, and the return of Nabers could entice Fangio to employ similar looks.

Fangio has employed a hefty amount of man coverage this season. This could work to the advantage of Brian Daboll and Daniel Jones, who is historically better attacking man coverage. Daboll does a good job scheming first-read targets against man coverage through pre-snap motion and releases that create traffic and space.

Veteran Eagles’ cornerback Darius Slay did not practice Thursday after suffering a knee injury last week. Rookie cornerback Quinyon Mitchell has played the most snaps of any Eagles’ defender. He is a sticky — harassing — defender who could see a lot of Malik Nabers, albeit Fangio will likely shade help toward Mitchell from safeties C.J. Gardner-Johnson and Reed Blankenship.

Gardner-Johnson is a chippy foe who thrives when trash-talking. The Giants can’t take that bait. Blankenship seems to be in the right position at the right time. I would expect Nabers to see multiple sets of eyes often, and the Giants will likely employ that same strategy against A.J. Brown as they did against Ja’Marr Chase last week.

Rookie Cooper DeJean played 52 snaps against the Cleveland Browns last week. He’s dense and more physical than most nickel/apex defenders. Fangio played DeJean over long-time nickel defender Avonte Maddox:

Although DeJean is highly-regarded, the Giants can run from 11 personnel and force him to consistently fit a more creative rushing attack; New York should see how he responds to this early in the game and run the football, unlike their start against Cincinnati, where they handed it off five times in the first half.

If Slay is not back healthy, the Giants could see Ringo opposite of Mitchell, which could benefit New York. Ringo was a highly regarded five-star prospect with all the tools but still finds himself susceptible to the deep ball and quick cuts. Darius Slayton was limited on Thursday’s practice with a groin injury, but if he plays, Slayton could exploit that matchup deep and off play-action over the middle of the field.

Former Saint Zack Baun has had a resurgence under Fangio. He plays weakside linebacker for the Eagles and is a pleasant surprise next to former Georgia Bulldog Nakobe Dean. Both can rush the passer; neither is an elite run defender.

The matchup to circle is the defensive line against the Giants’ offensive line. The aforementioned Jalen Carter is becoming a game-wrecking type of interior defensive lineman. Jon Runyan, Greg Van Roten, and John Michael Schmitz will have their hands full on Sunday if he plays (he did not practice on Thursday). Big Jordan Davis, athletic Milton Williams, and second-year Moro Ojomo also receive significant snaps on the line.

Sweat, Huff, Nolan Smith, and Brandon Graham are the four main EDGE rushers. Expect Fangio to send four often with twists aimed at Ezuedu’s side. Carter may align as a 4i-shade with Sweat in wider front on third-and-long situations to try and create a free rusher at Daniel Jones.

Brian Daboll will use condensed formations (stacks, bunchs that are tight) to create separation against Fangio when he uses man coverage. However, unlike against Cincinnati, the Giants should try and move the football on the ground to set up the play action. Taking shots to back the defense off quick game should be a strategy of the Giants as well — especially if Malik Nabers is singled up.

The Giants used the RPO often last week. I like the RPO game—and putting defenders in conflict to make a quick decision—but I would like to see more under-center DUO runs from 11 personnel to see if/how the Eagles fit. If the Eagles struggle early to fit, the Giants can possess the ball, which gives them more options to attack vertically off the play action.

Protection sliding to the left side to help Ezeudu will be a focal point for New York, especially if Fangio throws curveballs at the young tackle.

Final thoughts

Brian Daboll can design a game plan to defeat this Philadelphia defense. The key to victory on offense is limiting mistakes and execution. Jones has to hit open receivers downfield, receivers have to catch the ball when it arrives, and the Giants’ offensive line must open some lanes for Singletary and Tracy Jr. It sounds simple. Still, New York has not consistently achieved this goal throughout the season. It’s a very winnable matchup that can swing the pendulum for the Giants, but I have the Eagles winning this game.