Lions mailbag: Will Detroit ever trade for a blue-chip player?

It’s time for another Detroit Lions mailbag. As always, you can submit questions via Twitter using the hashtag #AskPOD or by keeping an eye out for our weekly calls for questions. In addition to these written mailbags, we also do a weekly mailbag podcast. You can catch this week’s episode here.

Let’s jump into this week’s edition:

First off, great find. They rank first, second, and third in the NFL in takeaways.

Now let me tell you why I’m not so worried. While takeaways are undoubtedly a key to victory, there is not a lot of data suggesting teams can consistently create turnovers. They’re one of the most variable statistics year-to-year. Take, for example, where these teams ranked in takeaways last year:

• Bears: 5th
• Vikings: 20th
• Packers: 23rd

In other words, just because these defenses are creating a lot of turnovers through five games does not mean they will continue to do so.

Now, there are other reasons to fear some of these defenses. The Vikings defense ranks first in DVOA (in both pass and run defense) and EPA. The Bears aren’t far behind, ranking seventh in DVOA and third in EPA. The Packers, on the other hand, rank 17th in DVOA and seventh in EPA.

These defenses will certainly challenge Detroit, but I am not specifically concerned about their early ability to create turnovers, particularly because Detroit has taken care of the ball well historically under Ben Johnson. They were middle of the pack in giveaways last year (19th), and had the fewest in 2022.

I don’t have more insight into the inner workings of other franchises than you do, but I think the best publicly available data to answer your question is the NFLPA report cards. If you’re unfamiliar with those, they’re grades given out to franchises on a variety of aspects of their business based on the results of surveys from thousands of polled NFL players.

In the latest report card—based on 2023 surveys—the Lions ranked just 13th in overall grade. While that’s up from 15th the year before, it does speak to the work that still needs to be done. The perception of the franchise is much higher than before, but the actual facility and operation of the team could use some upgrades.

In particular, the Lions ranked poorly when it came to their nutritionist/dietician (25th), food/cafeteria (19th), and were just average when it came to their strength and conditioning staff and resources.

Of course, the Lions have invested a ton in those areas in recent years. In 2023, they hired a new head athletic trainer in Mike Sundeen and this past year they hired one of the most highly-regarded trainers to head up their entire player health and performance program in Brett Fischer.

Additionally, the Lions have expanded their weight room in recent years, and the sponsorship from Meijer on the team facility has given them more resources to invest in the team. I suspect Detroit’s ranking will continue to rise in these report cards as time moves on.

The only requirements from teams when it comes to injury reporting are to offer an accurate injury report three times a week and provide in-game injury announcements, when necessary. Coaches are under no obligation to provide any information during press conferences.

As for Dan Campbell, I think he’s actually among one of the more transparent coaches when it comes to answering injury questions. Admittedly, he was a little more open a year or two ago, but just compare him vs. Cowboys coach Mike McCarthy this week.

Campbell on Kerby Joseph:

“He’s going to practice today so I think we’ll be OK. We’ll see, we’ll know a lot more after today’s practice.”

McCarthy on Eric Kendricks, Nick Vigil:

“We’ll take until Saturday, see how we come off the field tomorrow, obviously exercising everybody with a potential to play.”

(Note: Hours later, Kendricks was officially declared out)

Am I surprised? Yes, definitely. Shocked? Probably not.

Jameson Williams obviously showed a lot of improvement toward the end of last year, and that clearly carried over into training camp. My concern with him, though, was the inconsistent play. He’d have one excellent practice, and then follow it up with another where he and Jared Goff seemed to be on completely different pages.

However, those instances of miscommunication continue to become less frequent. On top of that, Williams is growing as a route runner, becoming much more nuanced than a 9-route specialist.

It’s not surprising to see that Williams (22.2) is more than doubling Amon-Ra St. Brown (9.3) when it comes to yards per catch. He’s the big play threat while St. Brown is the trusty chain-mover. Still, I wouldn’t have guessed that Williams would have already produced this many big plays in the passing game (five of over 20+ yards) in the first four games of the season.

Honestly, I think the best position group through four games has been the safeties. Kerby Joseph is playing the best football of his career, and Brian Branch took to the safety position much quicker than I anticipated. Those two have combined for 11 pass breakups, four interceptions, and three tackles for loss, despite Branch missing a game.

I also have to add David Montgomery to the “stud” list, as he’s arguably been the most valuable player for the team through four games. He single-handedly beat the Rams in overtime, and he continues to punish defenses with his physical running style.

As for the duds, the obvious one is James Houston, who squandered his biggest opportunity last game against the Seahawks with two penalties and just a single pressure. Beyond that, it’s hard to point to anyone who has consistently been a problem. Obviously, the outside cornerbacks need to cut down on the penalties, but defensive coordinator Aaron Glenn made it clear they aren’t going to back down from their physical play because that has also resulted in a ton of pass breakups.

“When you’re not challenging, then you’re playing too soft,” Glenn said. “When you are challenging, you’re getting those (penalties). So, the thing is, I’m going to ride with the fact that our guys are out there challenging and we’re going to continue to do what we do.”

I wouldn’t call these players duds, but here’s a small list of players I’d like to see more from going forward: Jahmyr Gibbs (still looking for that explosive run), Sam LaPorta, Kyle Peko, Jack Campbell.

When it comes to the outside cornerback position, I think the answer to your question is probably yes. The Lions are perfectly happy with Carlton Davis and Terrion Arnold manning the boundaries, and I don’t expect that to change, despite the aforementioned penalties.

However, I would not completely count out Ennis Rakestraw at the nickel competition. This has nothing to do with Amik Robertson. I think he’s doing a very good job thus far, and Al Karsten broke down nicely here. However, we saw Rakestraw manning the nickel often in training camp, and I know the Lions like him a lot. And knowing their past fearlessness to play rookies, they’re likely chomping at the bit to give him a shot.

Obviously, Rakestraw’s injury held back any early opportunities, but now that he’s off the injury report, don’t be surprised if they give him a shot, even if it is just a small, subpackage role.

I learned very early in this business to never say never—and I won’t here—but it certainly doesn’t seem like Brad Holmes’ style.

One primary reason for this is something Holmes has said a few times: they have a strict character evaluation, and it’s never easy to know if an external player is a culture fit.

“We’ll be wise and smart and strategic in how we add, but again we don’t just spend big on getting a high-price guy,” Holmes said back in 2023 prior to free agency. “It’s got to be the right fit, and it’s got to be the right guy, and if it’s not the right guy then it doesn’t matter what the outside world thinks.”

The other reason is the Lions have plenty of blue-chip players they’re going to have to pay on their own. Consider that the following players are already among the highest-paid at their position: Jared Goff, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Frank Ragnow, and Penei Sewell. Now consider the following players who are on rookie contracts that will eventually be due for huge paydays: Jahmyr Gibbs, Sam LaPorta, Aidan Hutchinson, Alim McNeill, Jack Campbell, Kerby Joseph, and Brian Branch. That’s 11 players—half the starting team—who could be in line to be paid at the top of their position. Not many franchises have half that many blue-chip players, and if we’re being quite honest, I’m not entirely sure the Lions will be able to keep all of these players.

That’s not even including players like Jameson Williams, Kalif Raymond, Tim Patrick, David Montgomery, Kevin Zeitler, Alex Anzalone, Levi Onwuzurike, Derrick Barnes, Malcolm Rodriguez, Carlton Davis, Amik Robertson, Josh Paschal, and Ifeatu Melifonwu—who are all valuable players who become free agents either in 2025 or 2026.

All of that is to say the Lions have plenty of work to do on retaining their own roster, and they won’t likely have the room to re-sign them all. Adding a blue-chip, extremely expensive player like Davante Adams ($35.6M salary next year) or Haason Reddick (seeking a top-tier EDGE contract) would cost Detroit several opportunities to re-sign their own. Doing that for a player they cannot be 100 percent certain fits their culture and scheme seems awfully counter to their overall philosophy.

Of course, if a player became available that the Lions front office has a ton of resolve on, I can’t completely count out the chance that they take a Les Snead-like swing. But I suspect the subset of Lions fans who are always eager for a big trade deadline move will be annually disappointed.