NFC North quarterly check-in: How the Vikings became the team to beat

How did the Minnesota Vikings suddenly become the team to beat? We break it down in our NFC North check-in.

Now seems like as good of a time as ever to do a quick check-in with the NFC North. The Detroit Lions, with a 3-1 record, currently sit second in the division and most probably didn’t expect them to be playing second-fiddle to the Minnesota Vikings of all teams.

But it’s been a pretty wacky start to the 2024 season for the Black and Blue Division, so let’s take a closer look with a quarterly recap of the NFC North.

Minnesota Vikings: 4-0

Schedule thus far:

• Beat Giants, 28-6
• Beat 49ers, 23-17
• Beat Texans, 34-7
• Beat Packers, 31-29

Team stats:

• Fourth in points scored (29.0)
• Fourth in points allowed (14.8)

DVOA numbers:

• Overall rank: 1st
• Offense rank: 13th (Pass: 6th, Run: 17th)
• Defense rank: 1st (Pass 1st, Run: 1st)

Sam Darnold’s effectiveness in the Vikings offense has been one of the biggest storylines in football thus far, but let’s start with Minnesota’s ridiculous defense. In Year 2 under defensive coordinator Brian Flores, the Vikings defense is flourishing. We certainly saw flashes of that last season, but Minnesota struggled at the end of 2023. There’s certainly a chance of regression again this year, but it’s worth pointing out the Vikings have a few new standouts on the defensive side of the ball who are thriving. Patrick Jones II—the team’s 2021 third-round pick—is having a breakout fourth year, tallying 5.0 sacks through four games after totaling just 5.0 through his first three years. Free agent signings Andrew Van Ginkel (3.0 sacks and a pick-six) and Jonathan Greenard (4.0 sacks) have made Vikings fans completely forget about losing Danielle Hunter.

The secondary has also seen massive improvement. Harrison Smith is still playing at a high level and veteran signing Stephen Gilmore is looking like his former self.

And, yes, the offense is rolling with Darnold. Through four weeks, Darnold ranks first in passer rating (118.9), first in touchdowns (11), and second in yards per attempt (8.8). Are there signs he’ll eventually regress? Maybe, if you’re really looking for them. His three interceptions are tied for 10th-most, and his PFF grade (71.6) is 16th in the NFL, likely due to his 3.8 turnover-worthy play percentage (18th out of 29 qualifying QBs).

Green Bay Packers: 2-2

Schedule thus far:

• Lost to Eagles, 29-34
• Beat Colts, 16-10
• Beat Titans, 30-14
• Lost to Vikings, 29-31

Team stats:

• Sixth in points scored (26.0)
• 20th in points allowed (22.3)

DVOA numbers:

• Overall rank: 10th
• Offense rank: 3rd (Pass: 5th, Run: 9th)
• Defense rank: 19th (Pass 20th, Run: 9th)

Wildly, the Packers are 2-0 with Malik Willis as their starting quarterback and 0-2 with Jordan Love behind center. Now, of course, strength-of-opponent has something to do with that. The Colts and Titans are a collective 3-5, while the Vikings and Eagles are 6-2 together. Though it’s certainly noteworthy that the only games the Packers have played in the NFC are losses—and losses that could prove costly if the Packers are fighting for a playoff spot.

And while you probably shouldn’t read too much into each quarterback’s record, it’s certainly worth pointing out that newly-paid Jordan Love has gone through a fair share of struggles thus far. He’s already thrown four interceptions in just two games, he ranks 24th of 33 quarterbacks in EPA, and his 83.0 passer rating is 23rd. Granted, one of those games was against the best defense in football (Vikings), but the other was against an Eagles pass defense that ranks 27th in pass defense DVOA.

Still, they’ve been able to be pretty productive on offense thanks to a solid rushing attack led by Josh Jacobs. The veteran back is currently seventh in the NFL in rushing yards (329), though he’s cooled off: 94 rushing yards in the last two games combined after starting the year with 235 yards in his first two games as a Packer.

Defensively, they’ve shown improvement from last year, but that’s setting the bar pretty low. The Vikings exposed them pretty hard in Week 4. However, their secondary is opportunistic. They currently have a league-leading eight interceptions after posting just seven for the entire 2023 season.

Chicago Bears: 2-2

Schedule thus far:

• Beat Titans, 24-17
• Lost to Texans, 13-19
• Lost to Colts, 16-21
• Beat Rams, 24-18

Team stats:

• 20th in points scored (19.3)
• 8th in points allowed (18.8)

DVOA numbers:

• Overall rank: 23rd
• Offense rank: 30th (Pass: 28th, Run: 29th)
• Defense rank: 12th (Pass 4th, Run: 30th)

The Packers and Vikings have had wild and unexpected starts to the season. Meanwhile, the Chicago Bears are right where they’ve been for the past two decades: struggling offense and occasionally dominant defense.

It hasn’t been the start Chicago fans were hoping for with rookie quarterback Caleb Williams. He currently ranks 30th in EPA, 32nd in PFF grade (51.5), and 30th in passer rating. To be fair, he’s gotten better every week, and he even posted a passer rating of 106.6 last week against the Rams in a winning effort—even if he only tallied 157 passing yards.

Still, the offense is not good, the running game is mostly dead with D’Andre Swift, and the offensive line is not living up to the investment the team has made. It’s still early, and I expect them to only improve as the season goes on, but right now, it’s rough sledding. And I’m not ready to declare that they’ve turned a corner when the Rams rank 31st in defensive DVOA.

But, hey, at least they have a good punter, apparently.

Still, the Bears have stayed in every single game this season because of their defense. They’ve yet to give up more than 21 points in a game. They’re third in EPA/pass allowed, but they’re pretty vulnerable on the ground, allowing an average of 121 rushing yards per game and 4.5 yards per carry.