Drew Allar was once billed as a one of a kind quarterback prospect and the top ranked college recruit in the 2022 class. Penn State did little to develop him and surround him with sufficient talent.
Now as we sit less than two weeks out from the 2026 NFL Draft, Allar is still mostly a mystery. The physical traits are easy to fall in love with. He’s 6-5 and roughly 240 pounds. Allar has a cannon for an arm, and while he’s not as mobile as Josh Allen (few are) he can still threaten and convert late downs with his legs.
At this point there is no guarantee that Allar is drafted on Friday night, meaning he could fall into the fourth round potentially. He would be one of the most physically gifted quarterbacks to make it to Saturday in recent memory, but that’s exactly the question surrounding Allar: is there more to his game than physical tools?
It’s simply rare than we have three and a half years of college tape on a quarterback and still not know exactly who he is. Allar is great at looking like a quarterback. To date he has not played like a great quarterback.
To an extent, Allar was let down by Penn State. How much does this we excuse the player for his crashing draft stock?
The most disgusting Drew Allar stat 🤮
In effectively 2.5 college seasons, Penn State receivers dropped 55 passes which comprised 8% of Allar’s pass attempts.
Between 2023 and 2025, Allar averaged 17 completions per game. Easy math tells us his receivers in total dropped three and a quarter games worth of on-target passes.
While box score stats aren’t everything, they do matter some in regards to perception. How much better would Allar’s production look from the standpoints of yardage, completion percentage, and touchdowns if it weren’t for this high rate of drops?
Some draft analysts will point to Allar’s unfortunate completion rate of 63.0% and say he has work to do from an accuracy standpoint. If you factor out the drops and untargeted passes (throwaways, spikes, etc.) this rate climbs to 73.1%. The adjusted figure would still rank towards the bottom half of the league by NFL standards, but there are other examples of toolsy quarterbacks who became more accurate at the professional level. Allar’s accuracy isn’t as bad as it looks at first glance.
Comparing supporting casts 🏈
Aside from Tyler Warren, which is a big exception to carve out, Penn State receivers have not been sought after by teams in the NFL Draft. This is the most telling indicator of the league’s view on how college programs support quarterbacks with pass catching talent. Let’s compare Allar’s targets with that of Fernando Mendoza and Ty Simpson.
Allar
- Tyler Warren – top 15 selection in 2025
- KeAndre Lambert-Smith – fifth rounder in 2025
- Julian Fleming – late round or UDFA in 2026
- Liam Clifford – likely UDFA in 2026
Mendoza
Simpson
- Ryan Williams – likely top receiver in 2027
- Gemie Bernard – Possible day two pick in 2026
- Josh Cuevas – Day three TE prospect in 2026
2026 was a make or break year for Allar’s draft status. Penn State brought in transfers at receiver to give him his best chance; however, his supporting cast was still much worse than what Mendoza and Simpson had at Indiana and Alabama, respectively.
An unfortunate injury 🤕
The pecking order of quarterbacks at the top of the draft classed reached an inflection point around October or November. Allar suffered an ankle injury that required surgery and sat out the remainder of the year. Simpson also had his fair share of injury concerns and his performance suffered late into the season into the playoffs. Inversely, as Allar and Simpson pulled back, Mendoza played his best football late into the year and led Indiana to a championship.
Allar’s injury also kept him from participating in the Senior Bowl, which would have been a great stage for him to display his rare physical tools. He was able to throw at the NFL Scouting Combine but he looked rusty and it was far from his best performance.
Allar is still a worthy bet 📈
We’ve seen the NFL make wilder bets on toolsy quarterbacks than what it will cost in order to draft Drew Allar. This simply isn’t the Colts taking Anthony Richardson early in the first round. In some ways it’s still more savvy than the Seahawks taking Jalen Milroe in the third round last year.
Buying Allar at what seems like a low point is smart money. It’s rare to see a quarterback with such physical gifts be seen as this undesirable. In order to reach his potential he must land with a team that has the luxury of patience and won’t force him onto the field until he’s ready.
From this perspective, the Rams are one of the best fits to take a gamble on Drew Allar.
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