Preamble
The data points for this post are snap counts (objective), draft slot (objective) and PFF grades (subjective). If all you have to offer is “PFF is trash!” this really isn’t an article for you and maybe it’s best to move on. Also, we all know every draft is different and every prospect is unique, so again, if that is what you have to offer, this isn’t the post for you. Finally, we also know that players develop and can become better than their rookie performance. The focus is on what is the probability that a rookie tackle performs well in 2025, not what they may become over time. Please keep these things in mind.
History/Premise
A few weeks ago I made a post about what we could expect from a rookie tackle based on last year’s class. This was very limited as it was only one draft class, but I thought the results were interesting enough to post. Since then I have been working on gathering data from the last 10 years of rookies (2016-2025) and that research has led to this.
Data
I have compiled a list of everyone who played tackle their rookie year between 2016-2025.Since I don’t have a PFF account I was relying on other sources. I think I verified every bit, but it is possible there are some errors. However, I have a high enough confidence in the data overall to publish this. Yes, stats like sacks allowed might be helpful, but tracking down every possible data point was too big of a job for this hobbyist. PFF grades, while imperfect, provided the cleanest snapshot.
Methodology
My goal is to weigh the probability of success for rookie tackle, therefore we need to establish what success looks like. If Decker’s production from last year was worth him being cut, and is therefore a minimum standard, what is the likelihood we upgrade the position in the 2025 draft?. Therefore it is worth noting that Decker played 894 snaps and had a PFF grade of 67.9 last year..
Overview of the total group (84 players)
Let’s start by looking at everyone who played snaps as a tackle in the rookie year between 2016 and 2025. When we look at this group of 84 players we can see that:
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33%(28/84) were taken between 1-16.
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21%(18/84) were taken between 17 and 50.
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45% (38/84) were taken at 51 or beyond.
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46%(39/84) played more snaps than Decker.
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32%(27/84) scored above Decker.
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20% (17/84) played more snaps and scored above Decker.
Players with “meaningful” playing time
Since a few players in the total group had very limited appearances, I decided to narrow the data down to those that had meaningful play time. I define this as more than 600 snaps in their rookie season. While this line is arbitrary, I chose this because it is the rough equivalent of 9-10 full games played. While this is fewer than Decker played last year, I felt it was fair demarcation. The list went from 84 rookies down to 58. This means 69% (58/84) of rookie tackles who saw the field contributed significantly to their team. When looking at this group we learn that:
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43% (25/58) of the “meaningful” group scored higher than 67.9.
We could stop there and say that the odds of finding someone who can immediately replace Decker’s 2025 performance is a little less than a coin toss. However, I have all of this information now, so let’s narrow the field even more to see what we learn. I have arranged the data in cohort groups creating divisions based on the Lions’ picks at #17, #50, and #118. Where did the meaningful players come from?
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48% (28/58) of the meaningful group were drafted in picks 1-16
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24% (14/58) were drafted between picks 17-50
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17% (10/58) were drafted between picks 51-118
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9% (5/58) were drafted after pick 118
These numbers show what most of us intuitively know–if you want an immediate impact tackle you need to take him sooner rather than later…duh. Snap count is only part of what we want to look at though, we need to know how good these rookie players were. So let’s look at the “success” rate-as defined by Decker’s 67.9 grade- within the meaningful group (out of 58) and as part of the smaller cohort of the class drafted in a specific range (variable). In other words, of the 43% (25/58) whose rookie year was better than Decker’s 2025, where did they come from?
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Players drafted prior to 17 (28 total)
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26% (15/58) scored higher than 67.9
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54% (15/28) intracohort scored better than 67.9
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Players drafted between 17-50 (14 total)
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7% (4/58) scored above 67.9.
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29% (4/14) intracohort scored above 67.9
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Players drafted between 51-118 (10 total)
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7% (4/58) scored above 67.9
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40% (4/10) intracohort scored above 67.9
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Players drafted after 118 (5 total)
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3% (2/58) scored above 67.9
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40% (2/5) intracohort scored above 67.9
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Additional Data
Here’s some data that may or may not be interesting to you and helpful as you think about the situation.
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Decker averaged 916 snaps a year.
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Decker averaged a score of 75.05
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Top 10 draft picks averaged 70.27
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Picks 11-32 averaged 66.21
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Second round picks averaged 62.11
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Overall rookies averaged 740 snaps and a score of 61.9.
I have all of this in a spreadsheet, so if there is something specific you’d like to know (e.g. how many tackles taken in the top ten played their rookie year? The answer is 19), put it in the comments and I’ll get it to you. I am working on compiling a similar one for edges, so we’ll see if I can get it together.
