2025: Traded up for Jihad Campbell
2024: Stick & Pick for Quinyon Mitchell, but traded up for Cooper DeJean in the second
2023: Traded up for Jalen Carter
2022: Traded up for Jordan Davis
2021: Traded up for Devonta Smith
The most widely celebrated general manager in the NFL who has built perhaps the most talented roster over the past half decade has a curious habit of trading up to get his guys in the first round.
Notably, he usually only moves up a few spots, likely indicating he has recognized a talent cliff or a player has slipped and he doesn’t want to risk them slipping further.
Admittedly, that is not exactly the kind of trade up people cite when criticizing Brad Holmes, but for the purposes of what trade ups are criticized for, it doesn’t really matter.
We don’t bemoan the lack of depth on their roster as their stars become expensive. We don’t single him out as being reckless or aggressive.
Why?
Because he hit on the draft picks!
Brad Holmes’s failures, such as they are, have been ones of talent evaluation not draft philosophy.
The only possible refutations I can imagine to this conclusion is either a) Howie’s philosophy was still flawed, he just got lucky with a hot streak which…okay I guess if that’s how you want to play it. or b) The distance of the trade ups and what rounds he’s doing it in are different enough so as to be meaningful. Which is fair.
In any event, it is inarguable that you can develop a tremendous roster without trading back in the first, even as your roster becomes expensive. You can even trade up, and there is some compelling evidence that it might be the most prudent strategy.
Something to chew on as we wait for the draft to hurry up and get here.
