Now that the Minnesota Vikings have signed Kyler Murray as their new (presumably) starting quarterback, let’s take a deeper dive into Kyler Murray’s game and look into the strengths and weaknesses therein. Here we go.
Murray’s Situation in Arizona
Kyler Murray was taken as the first overall pick in the 2019 draft. The Cardinals were in rebuild mode after a 3-13 season, with a new coaching staff and roster overhaul. Murray was thought to be a perfect fit for Kliff Kingsbury’s Aid Raid offense and together they had a couple good seasons statistically, but ultimately the scheme can become predictable and difficult to execute without a full complement of good receivers and a solid offensive line. Murray had a good season for a rookie and won the Offensive Rookie of the Year award following the 2019 season. Here are his 2019 highlights.
The two best years offensively under Kingsbury (2020 and 2021) coincided with having Larry Fitzgerald/AJ Green, DeAndre Hopkins, and Christian Kirk as wide receivers. The 2021 season started 7-0 but Hopkins missed most of the second half of the season and the Cardinals faded down the stretch. Murray was named to the Pro Bowl both seasons. Here are his 2020 and 2021 highlights.
In 2022 the Cardinals lost DeAndre Hopkins and their best offensive linemen for most of the season and really didn’t field a very competitive team. Murray missed a couple games mid-season with a hamstring and then went on IR after tearing his ACL in December of that year. A week after that injury the Cardinals fired GM Steve Kiem and later head coach Kliff Kingsbury after the season was over.
The Cardinals went with a defensive head coach in Jonathan Gannon in 2023, who hired a first-time offensive coordinator in Drew Petzing. Petzing had worked his way up with the Vikings over several years and then left with Kevin Stefanski for Cleveland for three seasons before being promoted to offensive coordinator in Arizona. His first season went badly as could be expected- Murray was still recovering from his ACL and missed the first half of the season. By the time Murray was back the Cardinals were 1-8 and looking at next season. Here are Murray’s highlights from 2023.
In 2024, the Cardinals added rookie Marvin Harrison Jr. and it was also a breakout season for tight-end Trey McBride. Murray had one of his best seasons, see highlights here, but once again the Cards faded down the stretch. After their bye-week they were 6-4 and in the division race, but had the Vikings sandwiched between two games with the Seahawks. They lost all three, including narrowly to the Vikings 23-22. The Cards still had a chance, but later lost in overtime to the Panthers and then a tough 13-9 loss at LA at the end of December which killed their playoff chance. They finished 8-9 while the Rams finished 10-7 to win the division. Cardinals head coach Jonathan Gannon was already getting a reputation as a poor game manager whose decisions and failure to make defensive adjustments cost the Cardinals games, which was emblematic of a team without a winning culture.
In 2025, the hope and expectation was that the Cardinals could learn from past mistakes and finish better- both games and seasons- but instead everything unraveled. The season started well enough with two wins, but then the Cardinals lost three games in a row by a combined total of five points- including two division games. And then Kyler Murray injured his foot. It was initially believed that Murray would recover from his mid-foot sprain in a few weeks or so, but his foot didn’t heal as quickly and fearing playing again on it too soon would aggravate it, he was placed on IR for the rest of the season. The Cardinals lost eleven of their last twelve games. Here are his 2025 season highlights.
There was speculation that the Cardinals decision to sideline Murray the rest of the 2025 season was at least in part to avoid any other injury as they had already made the decision to move on from him- and head coach Jonathan Gannon- after the end of the season and they didn’t want to risk another injury to Murray that would make it more difficult to trade him. The Cardinals were also contending for the number one pick in the 2026 draft by mid-season, so there may have also been speculation that the Cardinals may draft a quarterback in 2026.
Overall, Murray was a good quarterback playing for a poor franchise in Arizona. The team never really had the roster and coaching to compete in the NFC West nor did they have a winning culture. They never won their division in Murray’s seven seasons there, but they did come in second once and backed into the playoffs in 2021, only to lose decisively to the Rams.
It may not be too much of an oversimplification to say that Murray’s best year and a half in Arizona was when he had a true ‘alpha’ receiver in DeAndre Hopkins in 2020 and half of 2021 with a decent offensive line. He had Larry Fitzgerald or AJ Green at the tail end of their careers in his early years with the Cardinals and a good WR2 in Christian Kirk, but following the 2021 season they replaced four of their five starting offensive linemen, Christian Kirk moved on, and things weren’t the same for Murray. Hopkins and Murray had only a few games they played together in 2022 and in 2023 Hopkins was gone for good. The defense was terrible as well both of those years. 2024 was a bit of a resurgence with the addition of Marvin Harrison Jr. and a breakout year for tight end Trey McBride. The defense improved in the second year under Gannon too, but at the end of the day the coaching and roster weren’t playoff caliber despite Murray having one of his best seasons statistically. And then the wheels came off in 2025.
Murry has had four injuries in seven seasons that caused him to miss games. An ankle injury in 2021 that resulted in three missed games, a hamstring in 2022 that caused him to miss two games, an ACL in late 2022 that caused him to miss twelve games between 2022-2023, and a foot injury last season that resulted in his missing twelve games last season. None of these were contact injuries.
In terms of Murray and his relationship with the team, there was positive momentum over the first three years, but 2022 brought the contract fiasco with the ‘study clause’ while the offense unraveled with offensive line losses and then losing Murray to an ACL. The next week the GM Steve Kiem was fired, a month later head coach Kliff Kingsbury was fired. Then they hired a new GM, a defensive head coach and a rookie offensive coordinator with a new scheme while Murray was rehabbing. It was during this period when the relationship between Murray and the Cardinals seemed to sour. 2023 was a lost season but Murray tried to make it work in 2024 and had a good year, but the reality was they needed a multi-year rebuild to have any chance to compete in their division down the road. 2025 only confirmed that. There was no reason to keep an expensive Murray around for that and so the decision to part ways with Murray was made- probably at some point last season.
My guess is that Murray was happy to leave Arizona and play for a better and more competitive franchise like the Vikings. Interim GM Rob Brzezinski commented after Murray’s visit that he seemed very excited- visibly so.
Murray’s Stats by Season
The first two charts are from Pro Football Reference and the last two are from NFL Pro and PFF respectively.
Overall, Murray accounted for well over 4,000 yards of total offense (passing + rushing yards) in his four healthy or mostly healthy seasons of 2019-2021 and 2024. His average total yards for a 17-game season are just over 4,600 (4,000 passing, 600 rushing), 30 TDs (24 passing, 6 rushing), 12 INTs, and a 92.2 passer rating. His 75.9 career adjusted completion percentage (accuracy) is about average and near Darnold’s in 2024 with the Vikings at 76.5 as a reference.
Lastly, here are Murray’s Total QBR stats and rankings. Total QBR is an EPA-based metric that attempts to account for the quarterback’s share of EPA on a particular play and is also adjusted for strength of opponent defense and removes some ‘garbage time.’
- 2025: 47.2 (23rd)
- 2024: 63.4 (9th)
- 2023: 48.0 (22nd)
- 2022: 53.6 (19th)
- 2021: 63.2 (7th)
- 2020: 61.9 (14th)
- 2019: 57.7 (15th)
Except his rookie year and 2023, Murray has had a better QBR than the Vikings’ quarterback(s) every season since he entered the league.
Offensive Line / Defense Rankings
Besides Murray’s receiver group, which I discussed above, offensive line and defense play key roles in how good a situation a quarterback is in. Running game does too. In most cases, so goes the offensive line, so goes the level of quarterback play. And the quality of the defense all plays into what type of game situations the quarterback faces and ultimately wins and losses. Below are the PFF offensive line rankings by season for the Arizona Cardinals followed by their defensive rankings measured by points allowed.
- 2025: 26th / 29th (Murray played only first five games)
- 2024: 16th / 15th (Murray played full season)
- 2023: 25th / 31st (Murray missed first eight games with ACL)
- 2022: 24th / 31st (Murray missed two games with a hamstring and the last four with an ACL)
- 2021: 15th / 11th (Murray missed three games with an ankle)
- 2020: 12th / 12th (Murray played full season)
- 2019: 22nd / 28th (Murray played full season)
It should come as no surprise then that Murray’s four best seasons corresponded with the four best offensive line rankings. It should be noted, however, that the quarterback also plays a role in how well the offensive line plays in terms of pressures and sacks by how long he holds on to the ball. Murray’s career average time to throw or TTT of 2.78 seconds is above average (quicker) among starting quarterbacks which helps make the offensive line’s job easier. J.J. McCarthy’s was 3.01 seconds last season, for comparison, which was below average among starters. For comparison, last season the Vikings’ offensive line was ranked 18th.
It should also be noted that the Cardinals’ best win-loss records came in the years with above average defenses (2020-21, 2024). For comparison, last season the Vikings defense ranked fifth in points allowed.
Okay, so after that deep dive into Murray in Arizona, let’s take a closer look at some of Murray’s perceived strengths and criticisms. Let’s start with the criticisms.
Kyler Murray Has Trouble with the Deep Ball
From 2022 through 2025, Kyler Murray has had terrible deep ball (20+ yards) stats. These include the following rankings among qualifying quarterbacks:
- #40 of 46 in completion rate (30%)
- #45 of 46 in EPA/attempt (-0.16)
- #42 of 46 in Y/A (8.7)
This represented a tremendous fall for Murray, who as recently as his 2021 season was top five in those metrics. Indeed, a starker and more succinct summary of Murray’s deep ball fortunes is his PFF grades on those throws over each season:
- 2019: 92.8 (7th)
- 2020: 92.9 (9th)
- 2021: 99.2 (1st)
- 2022: 48.5 (34th)
- 2023: 69.5 (39th)
- 2024: 78.7 (25th)
- 2025: 75.9 (40th)
It would seem an unexpected turn of events for a quarterback who led the league in deep ball PFF grade in 2021 and ranked among the top five over his first three years as a starter to suddenly fall to the bottom of the league after the 2021 season- one in which he sustained no injuries.
These stats lead some to conclude that at the ripe old age of 25, Kyler Murray lost that big arm that contributed to his being drafted #1 overall in 2019 and made him one of the top deep ball passers in the league until then. Sad.
Should’ve studied more, to use a narrative.
The funny thing is, looking at the tape, there doesn’t appear to be any drop-off in Murray’s arm from the early good years and the later bad years. Could there be some other explanation?
What Really Caused Murray’s Deep Ball Falloff
As I discussed above, there were some significant changes to Murray’s receiver group and offensive line after the 2021 season. Neither were for the better.
Murray’s receiver group went from DeAndre Hopkins, Christian Kirk, and AJ Green in 2021 to Marquis ‘Hollywood’ Brown, a 34-year old AJ Green who passed his expiration date as a good receiver, and Greg Dortch in 2022. DeAndre Hopkins was injured half the season and only played four games with Murray. Brown was also on IR for five games which gave Rondale Moore more reps.
At the same time, the Cardinals offensive line was getting hit left and right. Pro-Bowl left tackle DJ Humphries missed half the season. Pro-Bowl center Rodney Hudson was out for the season after 3 games. The guard positions were by committee as six guards had at least 150 snaps over the season. Three centers had at least 220 snaps. Right tackle Kelvin Beachum was a relative bright spot but still gave up 46 pressures.
Kyler Murray 2020-21 Deep Pass Highlights
The above is a highlight reel of deep passes from the 2020-21 seasons. It’s highlights, so it doesn’t include bad plays, but look at the receivers. Except for a few contested passes to DeAndre Hopkins (who specializes in those), the receivers are open. Now contrast this with 2022 below.
Kyler Murray 2022 Deep Pass Attempts
Here are Murray’s 2022 Deep (20+ air yard) pass attempts. 36 total (although PFF says he had 45). I count maybe 16-17 times the targeted receiver was open. A little less than half. Of those, I counted maybe 6 times he could have targeted another receiver that was open and still have been a successful play (i.e. first down). He always targeted the deeper receiver on those. In some cases the game situation may have dictated going for the bigger play. In some cases it looked like either by design or by Murray’s preference, once he identified a one-on-one situation outside the numbers presnap, that was where he was going with the football.
There were also about 10-12 pass attempts that were accurate throws, many of which were to covered targets, but the defender made the better play and it resulted in a pass defensed. Or the receiver didn’t stay in bounds and could/should have. The result was an incompletion or in a few cases an interception. There were also a couple throws to Zach Ertz back-to-back that were catchable, but really you can’t ask/expect a big tight end like Zach Ertz to make those catches. In defense of the receivers to some extent, there were a few big-time receptions in difficult circumstances when they weren’t really open.
The overall point I’m trying to make here is that compared to the 2020-2021 seasons, the 2022 season had a lot fewer high quality deep passing opportunities. There were also a few times that there was a disconnect between the targeted receiver and Murray that resulted in an incompletion or interception. That’s what happens when the quality of your receiver group drops from one season to the next. The result was a sharp drop in deep pass completion percentage and all the other related stats- EPA, passer rating, etc.
And because deep pass attempts are relatively few in number over the course of a season, just a handful more of missed opportunities- not necessarily accuracy related- and a quarterback’s deep pass stats decline significantly. And in 2022, there were a couple handfuls more of missed deep ball opportunities- most of which were low quality. 2023 was a similar story- not quite as bad but still significantly lower than 2021. 2024 brought Marvin Harrison Jr. and a breakout year for Trey McBride which helped, but it wasn’t the same as having DeAndre Hopkins and Christian Kirk in 2020 and 2021. You can view all of Murray’s 2024 deep pass attempts here. 2025 had only a dozen deep ball attempts for Murray before getting injured, a few of which were drops by Harrison, who did not have a good start to his sophomore season.
I should also point out that beginning in 2022, Murray’s deep pass attempt percentage declined, most likely due to the decline in receivers with solid deep threat abilities. Scheme may also have played a role, as after 2022 the Cardinals went from Kliff Kingsbury’s Air Raid scheme to Drew Petzing’s west coast offense. The emergence of tight end Trey McBride may have also influenced the Cardinals passing game, which became much more of a short passing game- often targeting McBride. In 2021, nearly 15% of Murray’s passes were deep (20+ yards) but from 2022-2025 only about 10% were. By comparison, in 2024 about 13% of Sam Darnold’s pass attempts were deep attempts.
Kyler Murray Isn’t a Good Fit for Kevin O’Connell’s Offense
Murray has been thought as not a good fit for Kevin O’Connell’s offense, largely because both in college and in Arizona he operated mostly in shotgun formation, whereas O’Connell prefers his quarterback to be under center and likes to run play-action off of that formation. Murray just doesn’t have the experience running a KOC-type offense.
Wrong.
More recently, under offensive coordinator Drew Petzing in Arizona, Murray had a lot more under-center and play-action game reps. In fact, below are all of Murray’s under-center, play-action pass plays for the 2024 season. All eighty-eight of them. That’s right 88. For reference, Sam Darnold had 136 of these in 2024.
Of the 88 plays, 28 were incompletions, including two interceptions (one pick-six), two drops, and two throw-aways. Three were sacks. 57 were completions, including four touchdowns. The vast majority of the completions were successful plays from a down-and-distance standpoint. 21 went for 15+ yards.
The Cardinals used the under-center play-action game more for the short passing and screen game than O’Connell has in the past, but Murray’s ability to operate with success in these plays at all passing depths and rolling out is well demonstrated in just these 88 plays, regardless of what he’s done in other seasons.
Another reason cited for Murray not being a fit for O’Connell’s offense is his trouble with the deep ball, discussed at length above. But the truth here is that between having a better receiver group in Minnesota and O’Connell having what most would say is a more effective scheme when it comes to deep passing concepts, O’Connell’s scheme and receiver personnel may well be just what Murray needs to get back to his 2021 stats when it comes to deep passing.
Lastly, Murray doesn’t target the middle of the field much while that is the area O’Connell likes to attack the most. It is true that Murray hasn’t target the middle of the field as much as Sam Darnold or Kirk Cousins did, but if you compare Murray and Darnold in 2024, Darnold targeted the middle of the field on about 2.5% more attempts than Murray did, so not a significant difference. Also, Murray had higher PFF passing grades than Darnold at short, intermediate, and deep distances to the middle of the field in 2024. Murray’s PFF grades were 81.8, 87.8, and 93.7 respectively. So, while middle of the field targeting hasn’t been an emphasis for Murray for most of his career, he has proven he can do so effectively as recently as the 2024 season.
Kyler Murray is an Effective Scrambler and Dual-Threat Playmaker
This has been a strength of Murray’s since he entered the league and remains one now. He has a rare instinctive and athletic talent to create time and space in the pocket and by scrambling outside the pocket that cannot be taught. And he can run with elusive speed. On average, he’s rushed for nearly 37 yards per game since he entered the league, including an average 6.1 rushing attempts per game, 6.0 yards per carry, and 35 first downs per season. Those averages haven’t changed much over his seven years in the league.
But even more than his elusive ability as a scrambler and occasional rusher, he uses his scrambling ability to make some truly sensational plays on occasion. Just look through the highlight reels linked above or this one of his top plays with the Cardinals and you’ll find plenty of instances of Murray showing his play-making ability.
Kyler Murray is a Slacker
A lot has been written about the Cardinals putting in a ‘study clause’ in his 2022 contract, which they later removed after public backlash. Murray was said to spend his free time playing video games rather than studying film and so the Cardinals felt a need to add a clause that required him to spend at least four hours a week of independent study. That led to a narrative that Murray is putting in the time to be the best he could be and also to some questioning his commitment to the game.
While nobody but Murray really knows how he spends his time away from the facility, I suspect there was at least a kernel of truth behind the study clause fiasco. I don’t know that it’s led him to be unprepared for games in the past, and I also suspect that to the extent it was true it applied more to his early 20s than his late 20s.
But I also see some of Brett Favre in Murray. Favre didn’t like to study- he famously admitted after about three years in the league he didn’t know what a nickel defense was. Favre had confidence in his ability to improvise on the field and so does Kyler Murray. And both Murray and Favre are/were fierce competitors on the field.
Murray also said in his initial press conference that one of the main reasons he chose Minnesota is to work with Kevin O’Connell and be under his tutelage. That suggests he’s trying to learn something from O’Connell and raise his game. He’s also set himself up so if he does so this season he’ll be in for a big pay day next season- whether in Minnesota or somewhere else. But he needs to put in the work to make that happen and he seems ready – and even excited- to do so with the Vikings.
The above tweet is from Doug Haller of The Athletic, who has covered the Cardinals since before Kyler Murray was drafted, both with The Athletic and The Arizona Republic. He’s won the Arizona Sportswriter of the Year award six times. His sentiment is echoed by Vikings reporter Alec Lewis with The Athletic.
Kyler Murray is Injury Prone
Since he’s entered the league, Murray has had four injuries- two minor and two major. He had a minor ankle injury that caused him to miss a couple of games early in his career, a hamstring that caused him to miss a couple games in 2022, then an ACL that caused him to miss 12 games between 2022 and 2023, and a foot injury last season that caused him to miss 12 games. The foot injury was initially thought to be a Lisfranc injury but was later diagnosed as a mid-foot sprain. The initial prognosis was that Murray would be able to return in a few weeks or so but when healing proved to take longer and fears of coming back too soon could aggravate the injury he was put on season-ending injured reserve. Some speculate that was because the Cardinals had decided to move on from Murray at that point, with the #1 draft pick in 2026 a real possibility and no reason to risk further injury that could impact efforts to trade him.
I think it’s true that as a mobile quarterback like Murray is, he is more prone to injury. I believe all of his injuries were non-contact. But like Lamar Jackson, injuring a knee or a foot or an ankle seems more likely than, say, a Kirk Cousins type quarterback. The more you have to plant and change directions, etc. the more likely you may incur some sort of knee/ankle/foot injury. But overall I’m not sure Murray is injury prone, but his style of play does seem to present greater risk of some types of non-contact injuries.
But Murray has also avoided contact injuries and concussions, which is a good thing. He’s proven pretty durable in that regard, even to a fault. Some say he avoids taking big hits in the pocket and at least a couple times being more willing to stand and deliver and take a hit would’ve helped the team. I don’t have particular examples of plays where that was true, but overall even if that were true in some cases, his ability to scramble and avoid hits creates a lot more opportunities than he may have missed by avoiding hits instead of standing and delivering the ball knowing you’re going to take a big hit. In some ways I wonder if his being 5’10” makes it more difficult for him to deliver the ball effectively when a much larger defensive linemen or linebacker is bearing down on him head on. I would think it would be that much more difficult for Murray to get the ball off without it being batted in those instances.
Anyway, it would seem that Murray’s style of play elevates the risk of some non-contact injuries, but he’s also been successful in avoiding contact injuries as well. I don’t know if the Vikings’ training staff have any way to effectively prevent any of the non-contact injuries or reduce that risk, but it’s important to note that the Vikings received higher grades for training and strength staff than the Cardinals on their NFLPA report cards this year and in previous years as well.
Bottom Line
There seems to be a lot of narratives about Kyler Murray, most of them don’t seem to hold up under further scrutiny, however. A lot of the negativity around Murray stems from the fact that he was unable to change the Cardinals losing ways and culture, except only briefly at times. But that doesn’t necessarily make him a bad quarterback. In many ways he has the qualities to be a league MVP in the right circumstances. But in Arizona he suffered from poor coaching and a roster around him that wasn’t playoff quality most of the time. Murray could only do so much. There are some parallels with Matthew Stafford in Detroit in that regard.
It was also clear that the relationship between Murray and the Cardinals front office had soured over recent years and with another rebuild in the works in Arizona, it didn’t necessarily make sense for them to keep a high-priced quarterback in Kyler Murray around, who in all likelihood was happy to move on and play for a contending franchise and reboot he’s career. He’ll have that opportunity with the Vikings.
But the narrative that Murray is essentially an Air Raid only quarterback and he won’t work in Kevin O’Connell’s scheme is a false one. Murray has done very well in all aspects of O’Connell’s offense in recent years, even if that style of offense isn’t what he’s known for. Murray can play in structure and is also a playmaker. He is the first quarterback the Vikings have had since maybe Brett Favre who has the ability to improvise and make plays. Murray is more mobile and a better scrambler than Favre, but while Murray has a solid arm, its not the cannon that Favre had. Comparing Murray to Darnold, once again Murray has the greater mobility and playmaking ability, but Darnold is the better passer overall.
But if Darnold can come in and help the Vikings win double-digit games and make the playoffs, Murray can do the same. Both came to Minnesota as experienced veterans- Darnold came to the Vikings in his seventh season and Murray will do so in his eighth. Murray comes with a better resume than Darnold, having been named Offensive Rookie of the Year and made the Pro Bowl twice, and previously made the playoffs as well.
What ultimately happens this season remains to be seen but barring a Murray injury I don’t see J.J. McCarthy starting this season. Realistically, there isn’t enough opportunity in the offseason for McCarthy to win the starting job. Murray will need and get first team reps to get him acclimated to the scheme and starters around him. At this point McCarthy will work with the second team and maybe get a couple first team reps here or there if he shows a lot of improvement. But regardless of how Kevin O’Connell wants to duck the issue, Murray was brought in to be the starter and take that off McCarthy’s plate as he needs more time to develop.
Murray is looking for a pay day in 2027. We’ll see if he earns it- whether from the Vikings or another team.
Stay tuned.
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