One of the more provocative rumors circulating around the NFL Combine this past week is that the Minnesota Vikings have soured on J.J. McCarthy and may even be pursuing an exit strategy with the former first-round pick.
Tony Pauline reports that the Vikings are “quietly pursuing an exit strategy” for McCarthy and that a source tells him, “the team is really down on quarterback J.J. McCarthy and is ready to move on from their 2024 first-round pick.” He also reports that the consensus view at the Combine is that the Vikings are looking for a new starting quarterback and will bring in a new quarterback to compete and eventually replace McCarthy as their starting quarterback.
Matthew Berry with NBC Sports reports that rumors at the Combine suggest that the Vikings are not high on McCarthy and will bring in serious competition for him.
And then there is this:
Vikings’ acting GM Rob Brzezinski said in an interview during the Combine that the Vikings were “‘exploring all possibilities” to improve the quarterback position. Vikings’ head coach Kevin O’Connell was asked whether he still viewed McCarthy as the Vikings’ franchise quarterback and responded that a lot of his feelings about McCarthy are the same as when he was drafted in 2024, “it’s just the timeline is in a different place for all of us than it was at that point.” That, along with O’Connell also wanting to bring in competition at the quarterback position, suggests a changing view of McCarthy and the Vikings priorities at the position.
Last year McCarthy was the priority and that was made clear to Sam Darnold and Daniel Jones, even though offers were made to both players. This year O’Connell seemed to acknowledge by his changing timeline comment that McCarthy’s development is expected to take longer than previously anticipated and/or the Vikings timeline for high-end quarterback play has accelerated (if that’s possible). O’Connell also said that, “I have a responsibility, and we have a responsibility collectively as we put together this team, to make sure we use the data we have at this time (to make the best decisions).”
All that suggests McCarthy is no longer the priority, at least in terms of being the starter.
What’s Really Next for McCarthy
It’s clear that the Vikings have concerns about McCarthy’s durability and development. Some say the durability concerns are the bigger of the two, but there has to be concern about his development as well. Persistent footwork issues going into his third year has to be one of them, along with his inability to develop much touch with his passes and resistance to targeting the middle of the field. The Vikings have said they are committed to McCarthy’s development, but that commitment is not unending.
If the Vikings bring in a more established veteran to compete with McCarthy, it seems almost inevitable that addition will become the starter in 2026. If the Vikings thought McCarthy was ready to start this year, there would not be this level of public discussion among the Vikings’ front office about the need for more competition at the quarterback position and the need for improvement. That means it will be at least his fourth season before McCarthy gets another chance to be a starter. That is the last year of his rookie contract and in that scenario there is zero chance his fifth-year option is exercised.
At that point the salary cap benefit of drafting a quarterback to become the starter would be minimal. In fact, it increasingly looks like the Vikings aren’t going to get the benefit of high-level quarterback play on a rookie contract by drafting McCarthy. Instead, it looks like a more realistic view of McCarthy’s development is that if things go well, he could compete, but not necessarily win, the starting job in 2027. And if McCarthy doesn’t win the starting job in 2027- his last year under contract- all the time the Vikings spend trying to develop McCarthy will be for some other team.
That is a scenario the Vikings have to consider. But the underlying considerations are how long will it realistically take for McCarthy to develop into a quality starter and is he durable enough to provide the consistent performance the team needs from the quarterback position. To the extent the Vikings have doubts about either McCarthy’s ability to develop into a quality starter by next season or his ability to stay on the field as a starter, it makes sense for the Vikings to consider exit strategies with McCarthy including possibly trading him. It’s doubtful McCarthy would fetch much in trade at this point, but if the Vikings deem that he’s unlikely to ever be the starter before his rookie contract expires, it makes sense to replace him with someone who could become the starter, especially if the Vikings opt for a bridge quarterback option in 2026.
Which gets us back to the Combine rumors.
All signs point to the Vikings acquiring a quarterback who could be the starter this season. They may even acquire more than one quarterback to compete. At the same time, it makes sense for the Vikings to gauge McCarthy’s trade value. They may not trade him, but if the Vikings are exploring all the possibilities as Rob Brzezinski suggested, making room for an acquisition by trading McCarthy would be one of them- particularly if they don’t see McCarthy starting by next year.
McCarthy Lost an Important Supporter
In the context of the Vikings potentially parting ways with McCarthy, it’s worth noting that McCarthy lost an important supporter in Kwesi Adofo-Mensah. The rumor was that it was Adofo-Mensah who prioritized McCarthy over making a serious attempt to extend Sam Darnold and also led Daniel Jones to take a lower offer from the Colts as he viewed his chance to be the starter as better in Indianapolis. Kevin O’Connell wasn’t as convinced that McCarthy was ready to be the starter last year. Adofo-Mensah’s role in the quarterback decision making last year was thought to have been a significant reason for his release at the end of January, as it damaged his apparently already shaky credibility within the organization.
Ultimately, McCarthy was Adofo-Mensah’s pick and apparently it was Adofo-Mensah who was key to his being the starter last year. Certainly head coach Kevin O’Connell has expressed support for McCarthy as well, along with acting GM Rob Brzezinski, but that support has seemingly been rolled back or qualified in recent comments since Adofo-Mensah was fired. Those comments raise doubts about the Vikings’ commitment to McCarthy.
Bottom Line
It would be surprising if the Vikings were to part ways with McCarthy in the immediate future. Surprising but not out of the question. It may be that the rumor mill at the Combine is equating the Vikings wanting to bring in competition for the starting quarterback job- which they’ve made no secret about- with the Vikings wanting to get rid of McCarthy. It can be true that the Vikings want to keep McCarthy and bring in competition.
However, if the Vikings are looking to bring in competition because they view McCarthy as not ready to start in 2026, that leads to a discussion of what the endgame is for McCarthy, who is set to be a free agent after the 2027 season in all likelihood. Do they keep him with the expectation he becomes a quality starter next year and ultimately plays his way into a contract extension? Or do they view that as unrealistic and opt to move on in a trade?
My view is the Vikings are more likely to keep McCarthy at least well into the offseason to see how he competes against new additions before making a decision to move on from him. But McCarthy will need to show significant improvement over the offseason. But the other side of this is who the Vikings acquire to compete for the starting job. An aging veteran like Geno Smith or Kirk Cousins would suggest the Vikings still have faith that McCarthy could be their guy in 2027. Kyler Murray or Mac Jones might suggest the Vikings want a longer term option that suggests McCarthy might never be their guy. Acquiring Anthony Richardson also might suggest the Vikings are hedging their bets on McCarthy and would put more immediate pressure on McCarthy to beat out Richardson or be traded.
In any case, McCarthy needs to show a lot of progress and soon, not to mention staying healthy. And it’s not out of the question if the Vikings are able to bring in a couple quarterbacks who they view as more viable starters than McCarthy over the next two years, that the Vikings act sooner rather than later in moving on from McCarthy.
We’ll see.
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