To hear general manager John Spytek and head coach Klint Kubiak tell it, the Las Vegas Raiders are far away from consensus on the No. 1 overall pick in the 2026 NFL Draft.
Even if the general consensus is Indiana quarterback Fernando Mendoza is going first to the Silver & Black in late April.
Both of the Raiders’ top two decision makers played it coy while speaking highly of the Hoosiers’ signal caller. Speaking to the team’s in-house media team, Spytek made sure to bump in and say “it is not” when the the topic of taking Mendoza No. 1 is automatic, after Kubiak’s introductory press conference this past Tuesday. The new head coach echoed the same vibes during the presser and after, too.
“What an opportunity to get to go study this draft and we’ll come to that conclusion here soon enough. There’s a lot of work to be done before then, but it’s an opportunity to make the make the roster better. And not only do you have the first overall pick, but you’re picking early in all the other rounds too,” Kubiak answered when asked about the opportunity to use the top pick on Mendoza. “So, looking forward to attacking that process with John (Spytek), our scouting department and the coaches working really closely together.”
But it is indeed early in the process.
Kubiak was officially hired this past Monday — proving his “hell yeah I’m going” proclamation shortly after the Seattle Seahawks won Super Bowl LX was hyperbole — and is assembling a coaching staff. First was Mike McCoy as his assistant head coach and then promoting Rob Leonard from defensive run game coordinator/defensive line coach to defensive coordinator and retaining pass game coordinator/defensive backs coach Joe Woods.
The staff building continues and then, all-important roster building.
And, with Las Vegas’ quarterback room consisting of super veteran and Pete Carroll favorite Geno Smith alongside Aidan O’Connell, it does seem Mendoza is the odds-on favorite and eventual selection by the Raiders with the No. 1 pick.
So let’s not beat around the bush here — Stoic Kubiak is the ideal coach for Mendoza in the NFL.
Kubiak’s approach harps on team-first, calculated, and disciplined football. And his reserved demeanor is a core tenant to his coaching style. While he may not be a “rah rah” type, that doesn’t mean Kubiak is aloof and let’s things slide. He’s similar to former Raiders head coach Tom Flores in that he’s even keel and is a low-key calming presence. Kubiak is as demanding as any coach in the NFL scene but his stoicism isn’t an act.
On the sideline or behind the scenes, Kubiak is consistent in his approach and it’s that demeanor that gives him the courage under fire to remain driven and focused in high-pressure environments.
When you take that all into account, it sure sounds a lot like Mendoza. During the Hoosiers’ magical 2025 run that culminated in a national championship, the quarterback helped steer Indiana to the promised land. And with a blend of size, a live arm, and natural leadership, Mendoza can go a long way to solving the long-standing Silver & Black conundrum.
And pairing the young signal caller with a coach and play caller like Kubiak is a major opportunity that the Raiders can’t pass up — unless another team sends multiple draft picks to Las Vegas to entice a trade out.
Kubiak’s history of fostering trust, building relationships, developing, and putting quarterbacks in the best possible position to succeed make him tailor made to take on the tall task of taking Mendoza No. 1 and making him a long-term franchise quarterback in Las Vegas. Like his father Gary before him, Klint Kubiak deploys a quarterback-friendly system that reduces the mental strain on the signal caller, making it easier for them to work. Kubiak also uses pre-snap motion and deception player deployment to force defenses to adjust and reveal coverages.
In addition, Kubiak blends old-school methods with innovative and modern scheme to create both a strong run-game focus along with efficient passing attack. This will help Mendoza tremendously as a young quarterback having a reliable run game to take pressure off the passing game while creating opportunities for play-action aerial attack.
And for the folk who are quick to quip that Mendoza was just along for the Hoosiers’ ride and was merely a byproduct of a great coach, scheme, and system, what do you think he’d come into Kubiak at the helm of the Raiders?
Hard Count
When it comes to Kubiak and his scheme, I’m intrigued to see how O’Connell operates in that system. The fourth-round pick (135th overall) in the 2023 draft heads into his fourth year on his rookie deal and the 27-year-old isn’t overtly expensive to keep in 2026.
The Purdue product showed in his first season, the NFL game isn’t too big for him throwing for 2,218 yards, 12 touchdowns, and seven interceptions. Playing time waned since his rookie year where he played in 11 games with 10 starts. He played in nine games in 2024 with seven starts and just one this past season.
It’s difficult to see the Raiders keeping Smith on the roster with his $25.6 million cap number at age 35. Waxing the veteran from the roster leaves behind $18.5 million in dead cap, and a savings of $8 million. Smith’s current contract with Las Vegas is good till the post 2027 season, however, it doesn’t appear likely he’ll remain.
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