Vikings @ Packers: A Preview

The Minnesota Vikings head across the border to Green Bay on Sunday for the first NFC North division game for both teams. The Packers may or may not have starting quarterback Jordan Love available on Sunday- head coach Matt LaFleur remains coy about who his starting quarterback will be to thwart the Vikings’ efforts at game planning for only Love or backup Malik Willis.

What is known is that the Packers are 2-1 and have done a good job responding to Love’s absence, particularly schematically as Matt LaFleur has run more of an RPO, misdirection, run-based offense with Malik Willis at quarterback with a more conservative pass attack rather than the west coast offense he normally runs, and the Packers defense has stepped up with 3 takeaways in each of their first three games to lead the league and help out their offense.

But let’s take a closer look at the matchups and what to look for on Sunday at Lambeau Field.

The Season So Far for the Packers

The Packers started the season in Brazil, losing to the Eagles in a game where neither team played particularly well. The Packers lost starting QB Jordan Love at the end of the game to a sprained MCL, which has sidelined him since. Initial estimates were that he’d miss four weeks- which is common for this type of injury- but Matt LaFleur has been gaming Jordan Love’s limited status last week and this week to make it difficult for opposing teams to game plan against them defensively. But my guess, despite a few optimistic reports that Love is likely to play on Sunday, is that discretion will be the better part of valor for LaFleur and he’ll start Malik Willis on Sunday.

The reason is that while it’s a home game against the division-leading Vikings and therefore a big game, it’s still only week four and the Packers will take the long view with Love and give him plenty of time to recover from his MCL injury. The Packers just extended Love at $55 million/year and so they’ll likely be cautious with him especially given the Vikings’ league-leading sacks after three games and wanting to avoid putting Love in a position where he aggravates his injury. Love was limited in practice all week.

So, we’ll see. Love is listed as questionable against the Vikings- the same designation he had last week against the Titans and didn’t play.

The Packers were able to beat two teams not expected to make the playoffs in the Colts and Titans without Love, largely on the strength of their defense and ground game. The Vikings will likely be the toughest matchup they’ve had on both sides of the ball so far, given the performance and complexity of Brian Flores’ defensive scheme, and the weapons the Vikings have offensively.

Packers Defense

The Packers have been aided so far this season by generating three takeaways in each of their first three games. They have a new defensive coordinator in Jeff Hafley and improving their takeaways over last season seems to be a focus. But with the exception of Jaire Alexander jumping an out route for a pick-six against the Titans, the interceptions were easy ones off of bad decisions/throws by the quarterback.

They also switched to a 4-3 base defensive scheme after running a 3-4 scheme for many years. That change may help the Packers position their talented front four- Rashan Gary, Kenny Clark, Devonte Wyatt, Preston Smith, and also Lukas Van Ness- for greater success as a group in rushing the passer. The addition of Xavier McKinney at safety also helps. Jaire Alexander has also gotten off to a good start to the season and expect him to shadow Justin Jefferson for much of the afternoon.

But it’s doubtful the Packers will be able to continue to generate three takeaways per game, and I wouldn’t be surprised if they fall short of that against the Vikings on Sunday. Sam Darnold has struggled with turnovers throughout his career, and the Packers are likely counting on that being an issue on Sunday for them to win. Darnold has had some potential turnover-worthy plays go his way in avoiding giveaways so far this season, fumbles included, but he’s also done a better job of minimizing those under Kevin O’Connell, who’s made that a focus and will likely be a point of emphasis for this game.

But apart from generating turnovers- including two pick-sixes- the Packers defense has not been particularly strong in defending the run or pass in terms of yards per attempt. The Packers rank 16th in yards per pass attempt allowed, and 24th in yards per rush attempt allowed. It wouldn’t be surprising to see the Vikings and Aaron Jones test the Packers’ ability to defend the run, particularly as the Vikings rank 10th in yards per rush attempt.

The Vikings also rank 8th in passing yards per attempt, despite no Jordan Addison the last two games (and who will return on Sunday). The Packers’ defense has also given up the second-most yards-after-catch above expectation in the league so far, and the Vikings are well-positioned to take advantage of that as well.

The Packers have played roughly a 50-50 mix of single-high and two-high safety coverages so far, with Cover 3 roughly 75% of the single-high coverages and the remaining Cover 1. Two-high safety coverage has been roughly evenly split between Cover 2, Cover 4, and Cover 6. The expectation is that Jaire Alexander may shadow Justin Jefferson on Sunday, which may alter to some degree the Packers’ coverage scheme.

One injury-related update: Jaire Alexander did not practice on Friday after being limited on Wednesday and Thursday and is now listed as questionable for Sunday’s game with a quadriceps injury. Backup CB Carrington Valentine is listed as doubtful, so if Alexander is not able to go on Sunday the Packers could be pretty thin at cornerback and could also limit their coverage schemes.

Packers Offense

Who starts at quarterback for the Packers will obviously have a big impact on their game plan, although there is speculation that even if Jordan Love starts, the Packers may integrate some of the Malik Willis offensive scheme into their game plan(s) going forward as they’ve had some success with it. Love is unlikely to be 100% if he starts on Sunday and it’s doubtful the Packers will want to use Love as a running threat like they have with Willis, to prevent more injuries to their franchise quarterback. But some of the misdirection concepts they’ve run with Willis could be integrated into their scheme with Love as the starter. If Love starts, I’d expect more of the West Coast scheme that the Packers have run in the past, but with a bit more run mix if game circumstances allow, and a focus more on the shorter, quick-hitting passing game to limit Love’s exposure to Vikings’ pressure.

With either Love or Willis starting, I’d still expect the Packers to take some calculated shots downfield when they get the look they’re after, but I would not expect this to be a focal point schematically for them against the Vikings.

If Willis starts, I’d expect more of the RPO and misdirection run offense they’ve run with Willis the last two weeks, combined with a more conservative passing offense that also includes a fair amount of screen passes. Willis frequently looks to run under pressure and has had success doing so, so having a plan to contain Willis or potentially have a spy on him should be a consideration for Brian Flores.

The Packers’ offensive line has had problems with penalties so far this season, and particularly at left tackle. Rasheed Walker has been called for multiple penalties ranging from holding to illegal formation that have put the Packers behind the chains and killed some drives. The Packers’ offensive line also grades much better at pass blocking than run blocking.

The Packers lead the league in rushing attempts and yards, and are second in yards per carry, which speaks to their offensive transformation with Willis at quarterback. The Packers are running the ball 62% of snaps so far this season with Willis, wide receivers, and both Josh Jacobs and Emanuel Wilson in the mix. Jacobs has roughly half the carries, but his success rate is under 50%. My perception is that the Packers ground game efficiency is a little overstated as they’ve benefited from some QB scrambles and garbage time runs that have padded their average yards per rush and mask the number of stuffs and unsuccessful runs they’ve had. Josh Jacobs ranks 44th in rush EPA at -14.8 for example, while Aaron Jones ranks 6th at +5.1 by comparison.

Vikings Offense

The Vikings will have Jordan Addison back offensively and will likely feature him with Justin Jefferson and Jalen Nailor in 11 personnel most often, which should augment their offensive weapons and stress the Packers’ defensive secondary in coverage.

Aaron Jones will be going up against his old team on Sunday, which ranks 24th in yards per carry allowed and should provide the Vikings with a solid ground game and effective play-action passing game as well. The Vikings rank 3rd in yards per carry so far this season.

The Vikings match up well against the Packers’ edge rushers with Darrisaw and O’Neill against Rashan Gary, Preston Smith, and Lukas Van Ness, but could struggle more on the interior against Kenny Clark and Devonte Wyatt, depending on how the Packers play them. If Wyatt lines up against Blake Brandel, he could hold up okay against him with Bradbury and Ingram doubling Clark. But I wouldn’t be surprised if the Packers opted to play Wyatt against Ingram for a better matchup on passing downs.

Overall, the Vikings should be able to move the ball effectively against the Packers as long as Sam Darnold is content to take what is there and not force anything- which he has done so far. The Vikings also rank 7th in red zone TD efficiency while the Packers’ defense ranks 21st.

Vikings’ Defense

Brian Flores’ scheme should give the Packers offense fits and be able to put them in unfavorable situations that will be difficult for them to overcome, especially if Willis starts. But I also expect the Packers to test the Vikings’ defense outside, as a counter to Flores loading the box often in presnap looks.

The Vikings have been tough against the run, which the Packers have relied upon, ranking third in yards per carry allowed. I would expect the Packers to mix in a fair amount of misdirection plays to keep the Vikings’ defense honest and slow down their aggressiveness. I wouldn’t be surprised if Andrew Van Ginkel had another opportunity at a bubble-screen interception, given the Packers have mixed that in a fair amount.

The Packers have struggled in the red zone, ranking just 29th in red zone TD efficiency at 27.3%, and that could impact the game. The Vikings’ defense ranks 7th in the red zone.

The match-up that favors the Packers the most is slot receiver Jayden Reed against Byron Murphy Jr., and I would not be surprised if the Packers target Reed a fair amount in the passing game over the middle. But the Vikings’ defensive backs will likely be challenged in making open-field tackles outside, so playing well in run defense may be just as important as in coverage.

Regardless of whether Love or Willis starts, I expect both will have a difficult task in figuring out Flores’ pressure packages and coverages, which could limit the effectiveness of the Packers’ passing game.

Bottom Line

The Packers remain a three-point favorite at home against the Vikings. That line had been 2.5 points but expectations that Jordan Love will return has contributed to the Packers line. But much like the Texans being road favorites last week, I don’t see much to justify the Packers being the favorites on Sunday. They lost to the only good team they’ve played in the Eagles- with Jordan Love. Wins over the Colts and Titans, neither of which are expected to make the playoffs, can be discounted for that reason.

The Packers- with Jordan Love- did not play particularly well in their loss at Lambeau Field against the Vikings last season- the game where Cousins went down- and the Vikings are a better team now than they were last season. I’m not sure the Packers have improved as much, and if Malik Willis starts it will be difficult for them to match the Vikings’ offensive production. They will likely be looking for turnovers to help out their offense, while hoping a physical run game will get the better of Brian Flores’ defense, along with a timely, mostly high-percentage passing game.

Stay tuned.

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Poll

The Vikings are 3-point underdogs on the road against the Packers. They will:

• 93%

  Win

  (140 votes)

• 3%

  Lose but beat the spread

  (5 votes)

• 3%

  Lose and not beat the spread

  (5 votes)

150 votes total

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