• Stefon Diggs, New England Patriots (+1400, BetMGM): Only Hunter Henry has seen more first-half red-zone targets for New England this season, and Diggs has made the most of his chances. He’s caught 12 of his 15 red-zone targets, converted five of them for first downs and hasn’t dropped a single red-zone pass.

• Demario Douglas, New England Patriots (+4000, FanDuel): At +4000, this is not a bet on sustained volume or end-zone dominance. It’s a bet on New England leaning into its scripted offense, creating an early look for an efficient receiver, and Douglas capitalizing before the game shifts into a more predictable rhythm.

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First-touchdown scorer markets are inherently volatile, but that volatility is often driven more by guesswork than by reality. PFF’s First Touchdown Finder is built to remove as much of that noise as possible, grounding these bets in what actually matters early in games: which teams start fast, which players are featured on scripted plays and who sees real scoring opportunities before game script takes over.

By combining first-15-play EPA, early usage rates, first-half red-zone involvement and real-time market pricing, the tool helps surface bets where the numbers suggest value.

Below are a few first touchdown scorer bets where PFF’s data points to an edge this week.

Stefon Diggs, New England Patriots (+1400, BetMGM)

Stefon Diggs’ first season in New England has quietly been one of his most efficient campaigns in years, and the early-game usage profile is precisely what you want when hunting for first touchdown scorer value.

Diggs has earned an 84.4 PFF overall grade this season — his highest mark since 2022 and the third-highest of his career — alongside an 84.3 receiving grade that also ranks as the third-best mark of his career. He’s turned 116 targets into 96 receptions for 1,086 yards and five touchdowns, generating a 112.9 passer rating when targeted. Among wide receivers this season, Diggs ranks 10th in overall PFF grade and 15th in passer rating when targeted, a strong efficiency baseline.

Where this bet really comes together, though, is in the early-game data. On the Patriots’ first 15 offensive plays, Diggs owns one of the highest adjusted target rates on the team, trailing only Demario Douglas.

That priority continues once drives reach scoring position. Only Hunter Henry has seen more first-half red-zone targets for New England this season, and Diggs has made the most of his chances. He’s caught 12 of his 15 red-zone targets, converted five of them for first downs and hasn’t dropped a single red-zone pass. He’s also come down with his lone contested target in that area.

TE Hunter Henry, New England Patriots (+1600, FanDuel)

If New England strikes early, Hunter Henry remains one of the most reliable paths to that first touchdown — especially given the matchup and how the Patriots deploy him in scoring situations.

Henry has been particularly effective against zone coverage this season, earning the fourth-highest receiving grade among tight ends versus zone. That matters against a Seattle Seahawks defense that leans heavily on zone concepts, ranking fourth in zone coverage rate. The schematic fit is reinforced by the production Seattle has allowed at the position: the Seahawks rank 28th in receiving yards allowed to tight ends and 27th in receptions allowed.

While Henry has been held out of the end zone in both the divisional round and conference championship, the broader usage profile remains encouraging. He has found the end zone in four of his last 10 games, and more importantly for this market, his early-game role hasn’t wavered.

Henry leads the Patriots in first-half red-zone targets this season with 11, hauling in nine of those looks and converting six into first downs. Like Diggs, he’s maximized his chances when space tightens, coming down with his only contested red-zone target and avoiding drops in scoring territory.

RB TreVeyon Henderson, New England Patriots (+2500, BetMGM)

This comes with longer odds, and the underlying matchup explains why. Seattle has been one of the league’s most formidable run defenses this season, ranking third in rushing yards allowed to running backs and first in touchdowns allowed to the position. Henderson is projected for just 19 rushing yards, which accurately reflects how difficult consistent ground production should be in this spot.

But first touchdown scorer bets aren’t about median outcomes — they’re about early opportunity and role concentration, and that’s where Henderson becomes interesting.

Only Kenneth Walker III has a higher first-half touch rate among players in this game. Henderson is heavily involved while the script is still intact, and that usage isn’t limited to carries. He owns a 26.4% adjusted target rate, which ranks third on the Patriots, giving him multiple paths to an early touchdown before Seattle’s defensive depth and game-flow advantages fully kick in.

No player in this game has handled more first-half red-zone carries, and Henderson has also been perfect as a receiver in scoring territory, catching all five of his red-zone targets this season.

This isn’t a bet on Henderson “beating” Seattle’s run defense over four quarters. It’s a bet on New England manufacturing an early scoring opportunity and Henderson being the player positioned to capitalize if things break right. At this price point, the First Touchdown Finder’s early-usage indicators make Henderson a classic high-variance, high-reward value play.

Demario Douglas, New England Patriots (+4000, FanDuel)

This is the longest shot here — and also one of the cleanest examples of how early-game usage can matter more than raw volume in the first touchdown scorer market.

Douglas has seen just 48 targets this season, catching 34 passes for 486 yards and four touchdowns, but the efficiency has been decent. He’s earned a 77.1 PFF receiving grade, and more notably, leads all NFL players in passer rating when targeted (131.1).

That efficiency becomes far more relevant when you isolate the first 15 offensive plays. Douglas owns a 34.1% adjusted target rate on scripted plays, the highest mark on the Patriots and one of the highest rates in this game.

At +4000, this is not a bet on sustained volume or end-zone dominance. It’s a bet on New England leaning into its scripted offense, creating an early look for an efficient receiver, and Douglas capitalizing before the game shifts into a more predictable rhythm.

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