The Colts have to make a decision on some of their own players in pretty short order. Less than two weeks from now, teams can start designating a player as franchise or transition. The rules say that you can only choose one. The following list from Spotrac, are the major players who are eligible for free agency:
(Spotrac Market Valuation)
QB Daniel Jones ($44M)
ED Kwity Paye ($18M)
WR Alec Pierce ($17M)
RT Braden Smith ($14M)
S Nick Cross ($6.2M)
ED Samson Ebukam ($3M)
LB Germaine Pratt ($2.8M)
I’m not sure that I agree with their values? Jones, Paye, and Smith seem high. I think you only end up giving Jones 44 mil, if he wants a really front loaded contract. Some teams will make him an offer, but unless someone just wants to drive up the price, they have to know that we have the franchise tag hammer. It would be great not to have to use it and have him signed before the Feb 17th tag option opens.
If you can get him signed, you can turn to the Transition or Franchise tag for Pierce. The Transition tag would allow you to match an offer, or by using a Non-Exclusive tag, gain two #1 draft picks. I found three examples, Gilbert, Galloway, and Adams of using that Non-Exclusive tag. Two of those were receivers, so it is not completely out of the realm of possibility that a team might see a big, fast, dependable wide receiver, who has led the league in YPC in each of the last two seasons as a franchise cornerstone. We might remember that he turns 26 in May. You would hate to lose him, but you also are without a #1 pick for the next two seasons. You could also opt for the Franchise tag, which looks to be in the one year, 28 million range.
The other thing that signing Jones does, is let you know just how much money that you can offer Pierce to stay in Indy, without using a tag. If you can sign them both, you still have the option of a tag. The tag on a safety looks to be in 18 million range, so Cross will likely hit the market, unless he is happy in Indy and has bought into what the Colts are doing.
A lot of the detractors and “Burn it down” advocates might wonder why anyone would wish to stay in Indy? I contend that it is possible that the locker room is in a good place. I also acknowledge that it may not be. After all, I have never stepped foot in the complex or had the opportunity to ask a player their thoughts. Maybe CIG’s time in the building and on the sidelines has given her an insight into the psyche of the team and was a reason she stayed with the current brass? She may have gaged the room as an entity who actually supports the direction of the franchise.
With Jones and Pierce taking up a good chunk of any available cap space, the next deadline is likely the first round of roster bonuses on March 1st. If you have no intention of keeping a player, you probably do not want to give this bonus. You might pay the bonus if the intent is to renegotiate the current contract. We have a few cut targets:
Candidates & Salary Cap Factors:
Michael Pittman Jr. (WR): The primary, most logical candidate to cut to free up significant cap space ($24M).
Zaire Franklin (LB): A candidate for release ($5.77M savings) as the team seeks to get faster/younger on defense.
Kenny Moore (CB): A veteran who could be moved to create $7.06M in cap space.
Anthony Richardson could also be traded for a savings of 5 – 6 million, while cutting him would not save anything, as it would be a dead cap hit of the same amount as his salary. A trade would need to occur by June 1st, for full savings. I endorse this move, fulling understanding that the possibility exists that he will develop somewhere else. Sometimes you have to admit that you were wrong, whether it was in your scouting, or your development. I do believe that picking up his 5th year option would make him more tradeable. At this point, you get what you get as far as compensation.
I argued against signing Pittman, so as you might guess, I am firmly in the release/renegotiate camp and leaning towards release. I believe trading his contract would be difficult, unless you are taking some contract on from your trading partner. Unless that contract is coming in the form of a pass rusher, you are sort of defeating the purpose of clearing cap space. If Pierce stays, I still like the WR room with him, Downs and Dulin, who deserves a raise. Another speed option from the draft on the other side of Pierce, might open some things up for him and others. We have the guy to coach that player in Reggie, so drafting one would create some depth.
I don’t know if it is possible, but I would have already cut Franklin. Kenny has been a good to very good Colt, but one mantra among GMs is that it is better to get away from a player a year too early, rather than a year too late. Moore may already be a year too late and feels like it is time to part ways. It’s not a great look to cut your “Man of the year” representative, but Reich being the nicest guy in the world, didn’t help him be a good coach.
So, in reference to the title, I would “Fish” with Jones and Pierce and “Cut Bait” with Paye, Smith, Ebukam, Pittman, Franklin, Moore and Richardson (I’d try to reunite with Cross, later in the process). I’m not sure exactly what the new cap number would be follow these moves and I realize that some are more appealing at the right price, but in a binary moment, these are my moves through the end of the month.
How would February look for you?
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