• Many of this year’s rookies have room to regress positively: Colston Loveland, Tyler Warren and more left fantasy production on the table in Year 1 with room to improve in Year 2.
• Jake Ferguson was a prime beneficiary of high-end accuracy in his direction: Ferguson’s catchable target rate was the difference between him finishing as a top-10 tight end and being a top-three fantasy tight end in 2025.
• Unlock your edge with PFF+: Access Premium Stats, dominate fantasy with in-season tools and projections and make smarter bets with the new PFF Player Prop Tool. Get 25% off your PFF+ annual subscription with code PFFFANTASYPODCAST25.

Estimated Reading Time: 13 minutes

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A lot goes into a player’s fantasy production each season, but for pass catchers, one of the most important aspects is their quarterback’s accuracy.

So, we’ll dive deeper into targets that PFF has deemed catchable — and the tight ends who benefited the most and least in fantasy (Weeks 1-17) from those catchable targets — while utilizing each player’s individual receiving metrics to project how much they performed above and below expectations.

Note: Click here to read the wide receiver version.

The formula to determine each player’s expected fantasy points is as follows:

• Expected catchable targets = Positional average catchable target rate (82%) multiplied by actual targets
• Expected fantasy points = PPR scoring for adjusted receptions, adjusted yards and adjusted touchdowns
• Adjusted receptions = Player’s catchable reception rate multiplied by expected catchable targets
• Adjusted yards = Player’s yards per reception multiplied by adjusted receptions
• Adjusted touchdowns = Player’s touchdowns per catchable target rate multiplied by expected catchable targets
• Snap threshold to be included = Minimum of 100 routes and 10 targets

A tight end’s catchable target rate has mostly proven not to be a stable metric in recent years (0.2531 average correlation since 2023), so this exercise’s value is in adding the context of potential positive or negative regression for some of the top over- and under-achievers next season. 

Top tight end fantasy performers over expectation

The top half of tight ends who outperformed expectations relative to their catchable target rate in 2025 is a much tighter group than the wide receiver position, as far as how many points over and under expectations were in play. However, with a tighter position group, there were still some risers and fallers in fantasy finish.

As mentioned earlier, each player’s target accuracy will vary quite a bit year-to-year, regardless of whether they have a new or the same quarterback from the previous year. This will put a focus on tight ends who made the most or least of their catchable targets in order to find which ones could positively or negatively regress in 2026 due to expected variance.

Players of note

• Kittle delivered the most fantasy points over expectation at the position thanks to a combination of high-end efficiency and an elite 95% catchable target rate.
• Playing just 10 games during the fantasy season forced Kittle to finish as just the TE12 on the year, though if not for his elite catchable target rate, he would have likely finished just outside the top-12 (TE14) and missed on the TE1 season.
• With Kittle suffering a torn Achilles in the NFL playoffs, we’ll unfortunately not know what to expect from him in 2026 if/when he gets back on the field, though expectations are naturally going to be tempered.

• Ferguson saw the biggest jump from expected fantasy finish (TE9) to actual fantasy finish (TE3).
• Ferguson saw an above-average catchable target rate (88%), though because he was so effective with his opportunities and the log-jam at the position where fewer than eight PPR points separated tight ends 3-7, he earned that TE3 overall finish.
• Ferguson isn’t likely to see significant regression in 2026, as he should put up similar production, though it’s more likely that the rest of the top scorers at the position can improve enough to jump him next season.

• LaPorta saw a 79% catchable target rate last season, which contributed to a production drop-off from his remarkable 2023 rookie season.
• Quarterback Jared Goff, specifically this season, has allowed his receiving options to flourish, as both Amon-Ra St. Brown and Jameson Williams also saw above-average catchable target rates.
• For LaPorta, he unfortunately only appeared in nine games due to injury; otherwise, he likely would have benefited even more in terms of fantasy production.
• LaPorta still improved on his expected TE28 finish to move up to TE24 on the year, though he managed a strong 9.3 PPR points over expected in fewer games than any other player within the top 90th percentile of scorers in that regard.
• LaPorta’s 91% catchable target rate will likely come down some in 2026, though he’ll still likely find a way to be a high-end fantasy option. Even with a low-end catchable target rate in 2024, he still only dropped from an expected TE6 finish to TE7 in PPR scoring.

• Johnson’s career year can somewhat be credited to an above-average catchable target rate, though his efficiency was among the best in the league.
• Johnson averaged a strong 11.2 yards per reception, which helped him make up for scoring just three touchdowns on the year, as his yardage did a lot of the heavy lifting compared to George Kittle or Jake Ferguson.
• It wouldn’t be a surprise to see Johnson regress some in 2026, whether due to a change in the offense, his role or also a potential dip in catchable target rate.
• At the same time, Johnson’s catchable target rate wasn’t so exceptionally high that it would make a huge difference if there’s a dip slightly below average, so if he can maintain his role and level of play in 2026, he can produce similar results.

• Kincaid had among the worst catchable target rates in 2025 for the position, seeing just a 66% catchable target rate, which ranked in the bottom fifth percentile.
• Kincaid was an obvious positive regression candidate in that regard, as that mark was never going to remain that low again, especially considering the quarterback situation.
• Naturally, that catchable target rate did increase to 85% this year, which helped him slightly in his fantasy production.
• The issue with Kincaid was a lack of playing time, appearing in just 11 games during the fantasy season and running fewer than 20 routes in eight of those 11 games.
• That involvement improved in the playoffs once he was healthy, and we saw the high-end production to coincide with his above-average catchable target rate.
• Kincaid will have to stay healthy to fulfill his potential as a fantasy asset, though it’s promising to see him at least get back to that during the NFL playoffs.

Tight end fantasy performers below expectation

The same context we applied to the overperformers can be used here for those who underachieved, except this group mostly saw below-average accuracy in their direction and will have a shot to improve in 2026. Some underperformed due to their own inefficiencies, which creates more concern for their future value, regardless of target accuracy.

Players of note

• Ferguson saw the worst catchable target rate for the position in 2025, to the point where it can only go up in 2026 and create optimism for a better season.
• Ferguson took a back seat in the Rams’ offense for most of the season, missing most of September and then playing behind Tyler Higbee, Colby Parkinson, and even Davis Allen at times.
• It took until Week 15 for Ferguson to improve his role and work as a starting tight end in the Rams’ offense, though he got banged up once again in Week 17, which caused him to miss Week 18 and the wild-card round. 
• With Higbee a pending free agent and considering Ferguson’s improved role over this latter stretch of the year, he should be one of the better bets to greatly improve upon his fantasy production in Year 2.
• Combined with being an easy bet to positively regress in catchable target rate next season, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see Ferguson have a breakout season in 2026.

• There is a theme with a lot of the fantasy-relevant tight ends who saw below-average catchable target rates, as a lot of the top rookies suffered in this regard.
• Loveland, much like the previously mentioned Ferguson, did not have much of a fantasy-relevant role in the first half of the year, though that improved in the second half of the season and during the playoffs.
• Loveland was expected to finish as the PPR TE12, assuming he had even an average catchable target rate, though he lost about 18 PPR points and finished just outside that range during the fantasy season.
• Loveland’s role in the back-half of the year, his level of play and high-end prospect profile make him an easy choice for a breakout 2026 season.
• Combined with a potential improvement in catchable target rate as well, it will be difficult to bet against Loveland in Year 2.

• Another rookie to highlight, one who led all rookie tight ends in fantasy production, Fannin also could have had a slightly better rookie season.
• Not including his rushing production, Fannin was kept from an additional 17 PPR points due to his below-average catchable target rate.
• The difference between finishing as the overall TE4 and TE3 isn’t a huge difference, but it’s worth highlighting here, as even slightly improved quarterback play in 2026 creates optimism that Fannin can repeat as a top-five player at his position.

• Warren was the opposite of the other rookie tight ends on this list, where his Year 1 started off strong but cooled off in the second half of the season.
• One of the biggest contributors to Warren’s dip in production was a result of his catchable target rate taking a massive hit coming out of the team’s bye week.
• From Weeks 1-10, Warren’s catchable target rate was at 86% – an above-average mark that allowed him to rank as the PPR TE2.
• Coming out of the team’s bye week and from Weeks 12-18, Warren saw just a 64% catchable target rate, significantly below average and led to just a TE18 finish.
• Part of this drop-off was a result of Daniel Jones going down in Week 14, though not entirely, and considering how low that catchable target rate was post-bye week, fantasy managers should expect that to level out in 2026.

• McBride wasn’t hurt too badly in 2025, considering that he was by far the overall TE1 on the year, though he’s still worth highlighting here because he popped up with a potential 20-plus PPR points below expectations.
• This was due to a 24th percentile mark in catchable target rate (77.6%), which took even more potential fantasy production off the board for him in 2025.
• McBride is clearly the TE1 heading into 2026, and regressing positively in catchable target rate as well will likely only help solidify that ranking next season.