Super Bowl 60 Betting: Best early bet before lines move
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The conference championship games are a wrap, and betting lines are now available for Super Bowl 60. Here is our favorite early spread pick.
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Seattle Seahawks (-4.5) vs. New England Patriots [Total: 46.5]
Best Bet: Seahawks -4.5
Elite defense has paved Seattle’s road to the Super Bowl. But the NFC Championship game highlighted that the Seahawks are as complete a football team as there is in the NFL. The Seahawks stand as the only team to record an 84.0-plus PFF grade in all three facets of the game (offense, defense and special teams) since the 2016 Super Bowl champion New England Patriots.
While the Patriots have performed exceedingly well against the competition put in front of them, the narrative element of their light schedule has some analytical justification: They rank 31st in strength of schedule to date.
This matchup doesn’t project favorably for the Patriots, whose offense wants to push the ball down the field (fourth-highest deep pass rate, 14.9%). The Seahawks’ high usage of two-high coverages allows them to limit shots downfield, as they are one of four teams to surrender 15 or more yards on less than 12% of passes faced.
The Seahawks are also able to generate pressure (39.8%, seventh best) without dedicating extra bodies to the blitz (25.9%, 28th). That could make things difficult for Drake Maye, as the young quarterback takes sacks at a high rate — many of which aren’t as a result of poor protection but a function of holding the ball as plays develop downfield. Maye has been charged with 22.4% of his sacks, the fifth-highest rate in the NFL this season.
