• Expect a healthy dose of man coverage from both defenses in the AFC championship: Denver leans on man coverage at a 33% rate, second only to Cleveland this season. The Broncos have allowed a league-low 9% explosive play rate in man coverage and rank fourth in passer rating allowed (76.3). New England, meanwhile, plays man coverage on 29% of defensive snaps.

• Blitzing Matthew Stafford will come with significant risk: Seattle has already shown two very different approaches against Stafford this season. In the Week 11 matchup, Seahawks head coach Mike Macdonald dialed up a blitz on 46% of Stafford’s dropbacks, Seattle’s highest blitz rate in any game this year. While Stafford completed just six of his 13 passes for 45 yards, he still punished the blitz with two touchdown throws. In Week 16, the Seahawks backed off, blitzing only 28% of the time, and Stafford capitalized, completing seven of his 13 passes for two more touchdowns while racking up 121 of his 457 passing yards.

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Conference championship weekend is here, and with it comes a fresh wave of advanced data and analysis.

PFF’s media research team has been hard at work this week, preparing for kickoff by pulling data-driven insights and talking points for our broadcast partners around the league. Now, we’re sharing those same nuggets with you. So, whether you’re looking to hit on your bets or just get smarter about the game, these are the key storylines to know for every conference championship game.

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New England Patriots @ Denver Broncos

Expect a healthy dose of man coverage from both defenses in the AFC championship, as each unit ranks inside the top 10 in man-coverage usage this season.

Denver leans on man coverage at a 33% rate, second only to Cleveland, and Vance Joseph’s defense has been dominant when deploying it. The Broncos allow a league-low 9% explosive play rate in man coverage. The unit also ranks fourth in passer rating allowed (76.3) and yards per attempt (5.7). That efficiency has been a cornerstone of Denver’s defensive success throughout the season.

Drake Maye and the Patriots’ passing game will test that structure aggressively. Maye led all quarterbacks during the regular season in passer rating against man coverage at 123.5, while his 66% completion rate and 9.6 yards per attempt were also best in the league. His ability to identify and attack one-on-one matchups makes Denver’s coverage discipline critical.

Stefon Diggs remains a reliable weapon against man coverage even in his 11th season. His 88.5 receiving grade against man ranks ninth among wide receivers this year, which just shows his continued effectiveness when it comes to separating against press and trail techniques.

New England, meanwhile, plays man coverage on 29% of defensive snaps and will be tasked with containing Courtland Sutton. Sutton has thrived against man looks, averaging 17.1 yards per reception — ninth among receivers with at least 10 catches — while his nine explosive receptions of 15-plus yards tied for eighth-most during the regular season.

One defining element of the Patriots’ man defense is their ability to generate pressure. New England’s 44% pressure rate ranks eighth overall, placing a spotlight on how Jarrett Stidham handles stress in what will be just his fifth career NFL start.

Historically, pressure has been a challenge for Stidham: Among 91 quarterbacks since 2019 with at least 90 pressured dropbacks, his 56.1 passer rating ranks 68th, while his 5.8 yards per attempt are tied for 51st.

To counter that pressure, Sean Payton is likely to continue leaning on screens, an area where Denver ranked third in usage during the regular season at 16% of pass plays. However, New England has been exceptional at defending screens in 2025, allowing just 4.3 yards per attempt — fourth-lowest in the league — and only two explosive gains all season. Their 3% explosive rate allowed trails only Denver, which has yet to surrender a single explosive play on a screen in either the regular season or postseason.

Los Angeles Rams @ Seattle Seahawks

Blitzing Matthew Stafford comes with significant risk, as no quarterback during the regular season matched his production against the blitz. Stafford led the NFL with 29 touchdown passes and posted a league-best 121.2 passer rating when defenses sent extra rushers.

Seattle has already shown two very different approaches against Stafford this season. In the Week 11 matchup, Seahawks head coach Mike Macdonald dialed up a blitz on 46% of Stafford’s dropbacks — Seattle’s highest blitz rate in any game this year. While Stafford completed just six of his 13 passes for 45 yards, he still punished the blitz with two touchdown throws. In Week 16, the Seahawks backed off, blitzing only 28% of the time, and Stafford capitalized, completing seven of his 13 passes for two more touchdowns while racking up 121 of his 457 passing yards.

That contrast sets up a critical decision heading into the NFC Championship: whether to send extra rushers at Stafford or trust coverage. Even without being blitzed, Stafford remains highly effective. His 99.0 passer rating against non-blitz looks ranked tied for ninth among qualifying quarterbacks, and he led the league with 3,073 passing yards while averaging 7.9 yards per attempt, the sixth-highest mark in the NFL. Sitting back in coverage has rarely been a safe alternative.

On the other side, Sam Darnold must find a cleaner and more efficient way to attack the Rams’ defense after struggling mightily in the first two meetings. When Los Angeles presented open-middle-of-the-field looks, Darnold produced just a 57.0 passer rating and threw five interceptions across those two games. Disguise has been a major factor as well, with three of Darnold’s six interceptions against the Rams coming on plays featuring safety rotation. During the regular season, Chris Shula’s defense rotated safeties on 40% of snaps — the third-highest rate in the league — consistently changing the post-snap picture.

With Darnold also managing an injury, leaning more heavily on Kenneth Walker III could be the most reliable path for Seattle’s offense. Walker was effective both as a runner and receiver in the two regular-season matchups. He averaged 6.2 yards per carry, with 3.2 yards coming after contact per attempt, and posted a remarkably low 3.7% stuff rate. None of his 27 rushing attempts went for a loss, and only one resulted in no gain.

Walker also hurt the Rams through the air. He caught all six of his targets across the two games, averaging 18.0 yards per reception, including three explosive plays. After the catch, he forced four missed tackles and generated 111 yards after contact, reinforcing his value as a versatile offensive weapon if Seattle chooses to take pressure off its quarterback.