For the third time in nine seasons as the head coach of the Los Angeles Rams, Sean McVay will be coaching in the NFC Championship. McVay and the Rams have been here before and this is a stage of the playoffs in which he’s never lost. His first win came with controversy as the Rams beat the New Orleans Saints 26-23 in overtime. In 2021, the Rams overcame the 49ers, 20-17.
That experience, and doing it on the road in a hostile environment as the Rams did in 2018, is certainly valuable. Additionally, McVay has done this before against a division opponent. Under McVay, the Rams have played a division opponent in the playoffs three times, including on the road against the Seahawks, and won all three games. McVay is also 7-2 in one-score games in the playoffs.
Since the NFL’s division realignment in 2002, there have been five instances in which two teams faced off in the Conference Championship. In the previous five instances, the division winner has won and gone to the Super Bowl. The home team tends to have a significant advantage in these games. In 2021, the Rams were outscored by the 49ers 51-27 in the two games combined. The Rams managed to win the NFC Championship game by three. It’s the only time in the five instances that the team that was outscored in the regular season won the championship game. It’s worth noting that the Rams outscored the Seahawks, 58-57.
| Year | Matchup | Round | Result | Game 1 | Game 2 |
| 2025 | No. 1 SEA vs. No. 6 SF | Divisional | Seahawks Win, 41-6 | @ SF, 49ers Win (17-13) | @ SEA, Seahawks Win (13-3) |
| 2024 | No. 2 PHI vs. No. 6 WAS | Championship | Eagles Win, 55-23 | @ PHI, Eagles Win (26-18) | @ WAS, Commanders Win (36-33) |
| 2022 | No. 2 SF vs. No. 7 SEA | Wild Card | 49ers Win, 41-23 | @ SF, 49ers Win (27-7) | @ SEA, 49ers Win (21-13) |
| 2021 | No. 4 LAR vs. No. 5 ARI | Wild Card | Rams Win, 34-11 | @ LAR, Cardinals Win (37-20) | @ ARI, Rams Win (30-23) |
| 2021 | No. 4 LAR vs. No. 6 SF | Championship | Rams Win, 20-17 | @ SF, 49ers Win (31-10) | @ LAR, 49ers Win (27-24) |
| 2020 | No. 3 SEA vs. No. 6 LAR | Wild Card | Rams Win, 30-20 | @ LAR, Rams Win (23-16) | @ SEA, Seahawks Win (20-9) |
| 2013 | No. 1 SEA vs. No. 5 SF | Championship | Seahawks Win, 23-17 | @ SEA, Seahawks Win (29-3) | @ SF, 49ers Win (19-17) |
| 2010 | No. 2 CHI vs. No. 6 GB | Championship | Packers Win, 21-14 | @ CHI, Bears Win (20-17) | @ GB, Packers Win (10-3) |
| 2008 | No. 2 PIT vs. No. 6 BAL | Championship | Steelers Win, 23-14 | @ PIT, Steelers Win (23-20) | @ BAL, Steelers Win (13-9) |
| 2004 | No. 3 SEA vs. No. 6 STL | Wild Card | Rams Win, 27-20 | @ SEA, Rams Win (33-27) | @ STL, Rams Win (23-12) |
Of course, history means nothing. With that said, these are games that the Rams have typically won. While they lost to the San Francisco 49ers in the 1989 NFC Championship, the Rams have won every playoff game against a division opponent since. In 2004 as the 8-8 six seed, the Rams went to Seattle and beat them for a third time that season in the Wild Card round. Fast forward to 16 years later, and the Rams went to Seattle and beat the Seahawks 30-20 during the 2020 season on Wild Card Weekend. To get to the Super Bowl, the Rams overcame their demons against the 49ers to make the Super Bowl.
Meanwhile, on the other side, Mike Macdonald will be preparing for his first NFC Championship game. The Seahawks beat a hurt 49ers team last week, but the Rams will be a different test. Macdonald has been in this position before, but as a coordinator. Back in 2023, the Baltimore Ravens lost 17-10 to the Kansas City Chiefs. Additionally, Sam Darnold will be making his third career playoff start and first in a Conference Championship game. Stafford is in his 12th playoff start and second career Conference Championship game.
The Rams should have the coach and quarterback advantage in this game which is valuable. Macdonald is a very good coach, but he’s also very aware of what he has. The Seahawks have effectively been hiding Darnold since the Week 16 game against the Rams. Macdonald knows Darnold is the one that can derail their season. The Seahawks haven’t needed Darnold over the past month, but there may come a time on Sunday that the Seahawks need to rely on their quarterback to make a play.
Since the NFL’s division realignment in 2002, experienced head coaches are just 10-7 against head coaches in their first Conference Championship game. However, they are 7-3 when the inexperienced coach also has a first quarterback in their first Conference Championship game. They are 6-3 when it’s the head coach and quarterback making their first Conference Championship appearances.
| Year | Matchup | Experienced Coach/QB | Inexperienced Coach/QB | Result |
| 2024 | No. 1 SF vs. No. 3 DET | Kyle Shanahan (SF)/Brock Purdy | Dan Campbell (DET)/Jared Goff | @ SF, 49ers Win (34-31) |
| 2021 | No. 2 KC vs. No. 4 CIN | Andy Reid (KC)/Patrick Mahomes | Zac Taylor (CIN)/Joe Burrow* | @ KC, Bengals Win (27-24) |
| 2020 | No. 2 BUF vs. No. 1 KC | Andy Reid (KC)/Patrick Mahomes | Sean McDermott (BUF)/Josh Allen* | @ KC, Chiefs Win (38-24) |
| 2019 | No. 2 KC vs. No. 6 TEN | Andy Reid (KC)/Patrick Mahomes | Mike Vrabel (TEN)/Ryan Tannehill* | @ KC, Chiefs Win (35-24) |
| 2018 | No. 1 NO vs. No. 2 LAR | Sean Payton (NO)/Drew Brees | Sean McVay (LAR)/Jared Goff* | @ NO, Rams Win (26-23) |
| 2017 | No. 1 NE vs. No. 3 JAX | Bill Belichick (NE)/Tom Brady | Doug Marrone (JAX)/Blake Bortles* | @ NE, Patriots Win (24-20) |
| 2016 | No. 1 ATL vs. No. 4 GB | Mike McCarthy (GB)/Aaron Rodgers | Dan Quinn (ATL)/Matt Ryan | @ ATL, Falcons Win (44-21) |
| 2014 | No. 1 NE vs. No. 4 IND | Bill Belichick (NE)/Tom Brady | Chuck Pagano (IND)/Andrew Luck* | @ NE, Patriots Win (45-7) |
| 2013 | No. 1 DEN vs. No. 2 NE | Bill Belichick (NE)/Tom Brady | Gary Kubiak (DEN)/Peyton Manning | @ DEN, Broncos Win (20-18) |
| 2012 | No. 1 ATL vs. No. 2 SF | Jim Harbaugh (SF)/Colin Kaepernick | Mike Smith (ATL)/Matt Ryan* | @ ATL, 49ers Win (28-24) |
| 2009 | No. 1 NO vs. No. 2 MIN | Sean Payton (NO)/Drew Brees | Brad Childress (MIN)/Brett Favre | @ NO, Saints Win (31-28) |
| 2008 | No. 4 ARI vs. No. 6 PHI | Andy Reid (PHI)/Donovan McNabb | Ken Whisenhunt (ARI)/Kurt Warner | @ ARI, Cardinals Win (32-25) |
| 2007 | No. 2 GB vs. No. 5 NYG | Tom Coughlin (NYG)/Eli Manning | Mike McCarthy (GB)/Brett Favre | @ GB, Giants Win (23-20) |
| 2006 | No. 1 NE vs. No. 3 SD | Bill Belichick (NE)/Tom Brady | Norv Turner (SD)/Philip Rivers* | @ NE, Patriots Win (21-12) |
| 2004 | No. 1 PHI vs. No. 2 ATL | Andy Reid (PHI)/Donovan McNabb | Jim Mora Jr. (ATL)/Michael Vick* | @ PHI, Eagles Win (27-10) |
| 2003 | No. 1 PHI vs. No. 3 CAR | Andy Reid (PHI)/Donovan McNabb | John Fox (CAR)/Jake Delhomme* | @ PHI, Panthers Win (14-3) |
| 2002 | No. 1 OAK vs. No. 2 TEN | Jeff Fisher (TEN)/Steve McNair | Bill Callahan (OAK)/Rich Gannon | @ OAK, Raiders Win (41-24) |
It certainly doesn’t hurt that McVay and Stafford have Conference Championship game experience over Macdonald and Darnold. While it may not have a direct impact on the game, McVay will have the experience of getting his team ready to do it on the road. However, this will be Stafford’s first road Conference Championship game.
At the end of the day, these are two opponents that know each other very well. This will be their fifth meeting over the last two years and their third time meeting this season. A serious argument can be made that the team that wins on Sunday will go on to win the Super Bowl. The Rams can only hope that the experience allows them to get off to a fast start and gives them a slight edge.
