The Los Angeles Rams are set to play the Seattle Seahawks on Sunday in the NFC Championship game after defeating the Chicago Bears in overtime, 20-17. However, if one thing is certain, it’s that if the Rams perform as they have over the last four weeks, and especially over the last two, it won’t be enough to beat the Seahawks.
While the Rams have won both of their playoff games up to this point, it would be fair to say that the offense and quarterback Matthew Stafford have shown stretches of inconsistency. This isn’t to say that the Rams have played poorly, but there has certainly been a drop-off in level since the fourth quarter collapse against the Seahawks in Week 16.
In Week 17, the Rams went the entire first half against the Atlanta Falcons without scoring a point. During the Wild Card and Divisional rounds of the playoffs, the Rams have scored a total of three points in the third quarter of both games combined.
At this point in Stafford’s tenure with the Rams, it’s been pretty clear that the team will go only as far as he will take them. The Rams quarterback hasn’t necessarily played poorly, but he’s gone stretches in both games in which he’s struggled to complete a pass. Against the Bears, he became the first quarterback with at least 25 pass attempts since Kordell Stewart in 1998 to complete less than 48 percent of his passes while throwing zero touchdowns and win a playoff game.
Some of that may have had to do with the cold weather in Chicago as well as his hand injury. At the same time, those may not be completely to blame either. Stafford has missed throws that he’d normally make, but has managed to bounce back in the fourth quarter in both games. In the fourth quarter against the Panthers, Stafford went 12-for-15 for 143 passing yards and two touchdowns and led a game-winning drive. In the fourth quarter and overtime against the Bears, he went 6-for-12 for 103 yards and led another game-winning drive.
It says a lot that Stafford has been able to flip the switch. However, that sort of stretch could be costly against a very good Seahawks team. Stafford’s EPA per play in the first and fourth quarter of games in the postseason has been 0.68 which leads all quarterbacks. However, his EPA per play in the second and third quarters of games has been -0.36 which ranks dead last.
Against the Panthers, Stafford went a stretch in which he completed 3-of-13 passes with an interception before leading a fourth quarter touchdown drive. Following the opening touchdown drive against the Bears, Stafford completed just two of his next seven passes. He then went 2-for-6 to start the second half before leading a touchdown drive.
In a sense, this is who Stafford has always been. There’s always been some level of streakiness to his game. What’s odd is that this is happening during the playoffs where Stafford has typically been at his best. Again, that’s not to say that Stafford has played poorly. In part, this is why the Rams traded for Stafford. Even on his off-days, he can be counted on to win with the game on the line. There aren’t many other quarterbacks that can be trusted like Stafford while trailing by one score in the fourth quarter. When the coach is having an off-day, Stafford can still do enough to make the head coach right.
However, it is fair to assume that if Stafford plays like he did last week in Chicago or goes cold for a quarter and a half as he did against the Panthers, it won’t be enough to beat the Seahawks. Stafford was just named the PFWA MVP and for good reason. Stafford was playing at an all-time level, but that has started to come back toward the mean. With that said, it also means that he could be due for a big game.
The narrative of the current dip in form from Stafford and the Rams in general has been a bit overblown. It’s naive to say they haven’t had some drop-off in form, but the way that this team has battled through it has shown a lot of character. The way that they are winning games may be unsettling, but it also shows how good this team is.
An argument can be made that this version of the Rams is better than the one that started 11-3 and was winning games by an average of 15.6 points. That team wasn’t battle-tested and continually fell short in the big moments. That’s when this team, and Stafford, is at their best.
Again, if the Rams are going to beat the Seahawks, Stafford needs to show some consistency throughout the game. The level against the Bears simply won’t be good enough. The quarterback and offense in general can’t disappear over a long stretch as they have in the last two games. For the Rams to make the Super Bowl for the third time in the Sean McVay era, the coach and quarterback will need to be on their A-game.
