With the 2025 season in the rearview, let us take a premature and (likely) abysmal early look at the Minnesota Vikings’ 2026 opponents and how I feel about them – i.e., how difficult I expect them to be.
What else are we going to talk about? Sam Darnold in the NFC Championship Game? No thanks. It was the right choice for the long term, by the way. I believed it then; I believe it now.
THE HISTORY OF COMPETITIVE BALANCE
Of course, I’m hedging my bets because I’m often wrong (duh), and the turnover among playoff teams year-to-year is consistently unpredictable.
Over the past 25 years, about 48% of playoff teams failed to qualify the previous season. Since the playoff expansion to 14 teams in 2020, that number has dropped to around 44%. In all, about six new teams make it every season.
Some of this has to do with luck (e.g., key injuries and turnovers that can’t be replicated year-to-year), but it mostly has to do with the parity that comes with a hard salary cap. There are no L.A. Dodgers in the NFL, and that’s a good thing. Teams can go from seven wins to 11 in no time at all. Of course, the reverse can happen, too. You don’t have to tell a Vikings fan how difficult it is, considering we haven’t made the playoffs in back-to-back years since 2008 and 2009. Every time I write that, I get nauseous.
Here are the Vikings’ 2026 opponents (it will be the NFC’s turn to play nine home games):
Home: Bears, Lions, Packers, Falcons, Bills, Panthers, Dolphins, Colts, Commanders
Away: Bears, Lions, Packers, Patriots, Saints, Jets, Buccaneers, 49ers
A lot was made of the Vikings losing out on the “last-place” schedule after beating the Lions on Christmas Day. A reminder: that affects only three of the 17 games; the NFL’s rotating schedule already has the other 14 locked in. So instead of facing the Titans, Giants, and Cardinals, the Vikings will draw the Colts, Commanders, and 49ers.
The glaring difference is the 49ers rather than the Cardinals. Then again, the Giants just hired John Harbaugh and have talent, so it would shock no one if they were better than the Commanders next year. Likewise, who will be the Colts’ QB next season? I can’t say with certainty that they’ll be considerably better than a Titans team with an improving young QB who could likely be paired with the #1 wide receiver in April’s draft. See what I mean?
LOOKING AT THE 2026 SLATE
We all know what they say about assumptions. Still, for this exercise, I believe we’ll have an improved J.J. McCarthy at QB1, with a proven, reliable backup with considerable starting experience. Let’s say a Mac Jones, Geno Smith, or Marcus Mariota type. Let’s really get nuts and suggest maybe even Kirk Cousins is back here. We’ll also embrace the doom that comes so naturally to Vikings fans and say Brian Flores moves on (and it better be for a head coaching position).
Games that will be very difficult (<50% chance of victory): Bills, @49ers, @Bears, @Pats
The Bills are the Bills, and Josh Allen is Josh Allen. This won’t be easy. And with yet another season without a Super Bowl appearance, 2026 will be a season of desperation for Sean McDermott’s bunch. The window could be closing.
(UPDATE: McDermott was just fired. Wow. Didn’t expect that. Yet another potential opening for Brian Flores.)
Anytime you face Kyle Shanahan, especially on the road, it’s going to be tough sledding.
Under Mike Vrabel and with Drake Maye, the Pats could very well be positioned to be the new Chiefs or, well, the old Pats. They aren’t going anywhere.
I firmly believe the Bears will regress next year as turnovers and lucky bounces dry up. That said, Ben Johnson should finally put them on a sustainable, positive trajectory. Precedent is in play here, too, as nothing is ever easy at Soldier Field, no matter how bad the Bears are.
Games that will be toss-ups: Commanders, Falcons, Lions, @Lions, Packers, @Packers, Bears
The Commanders had one of those seasons where nothing went right. We know how that feels, of course. While they may not be back to the NFC Championship Game level, I’d be shocked if they weren’t squarely back in the playoff mix next season.
Our old pal Kevin Stefanski is now the Falcons’ head coach. I do think this improves the odds that Cousins is back as insurance, despite having to fork over the GDP of a small country for someone who will (on paper) be the backup. But as this season showed us, it matters…a lot. They whooped us back in Week 2, so hopefully, we get a McCarthy revenge angle for this one. Still, it won’t be easy.
The Lions’ Super Bowl window may be closing fast. While it initially looked like the loss of both coordinators wouldn’t have much impact, the team faltered considerably in the second half of the season. Jared Goff’s cap hit balloons to $70 million next year, further limiting their ability to do much in free agency. They’ll still be good, however, as the talent level remains.
It looks like both Matt LaFleur and general manager Brian Gutekunst will be back with the Packers, and with them, the usual 8 to 11 wins that have defined the post-prime Aaron Rodgers/Jordan Love era. Both games could go either way.
As noted, I expect the Bears to regress as their insane turnover differential reverts to the mean. A familiar divisional opponent, Ben Johnson, an improved Caleb Williams, and significant roster talent still point to a dogfight. Coin flip.
Games that we should win (>50% chance of victory): Panthers, Colts, Saints, Jets, Dolphins, Buccaneers
This is when it gets tricky, because, as we know, the Vikings rarely find anything even remotely easy. Ever.
The Panthers are a solid team. They “won” the NFC South at 8-9, and Dave Canales appears to be steering them in the right direction. That said, given the talent differential and home-field advantage, the Vikings should win this game.
The Colts game is challenging because we don’t know who the quarterback will be. I didn’t see much of them this season, but the vibe I get is that the first-half run may have been a bit of lightning in a bottle. They’re probably not as good as they looked in the first half of the season, but not as bad as they looked after Daniel Jones went down, either. If we’re making the playoffs, as expected, this is a game we have to win.
Brian Flores was right about Tua Tagovailoa, and the Dolphins could be in dire straits in 2026 because of it. It wouldn’t shock me if they were in contention for a Top 5 draft pick in 2027. If we are a serious playoff contender next season, we have to win this home game.
I have the Saints as a leading candidate for most-improved team in the NFL in 2026. A possible last-place-to-first-place story like this year’s Bears. Except the Bears’ turnaround sucked. But there’s always one of those teams, and the NFC South is always a prime candidate. That said, see the justification for winning the previous two. If we’re to get to 10 or 11 wins, it’s hard to see it without this one. Despite their improvement, we’d better be the superior team.
On the opposite end of the spectrum, I wouldn’t be surprised if the Buccaneers fall back considerably in 2026. They’re a strange mix of aging stars and notable younger talent. The 2024 version (10-7) may have been the best we’ll see of this team as constructed. A regression to 6-11 or worse wouldn’t surprise me at all. And yes, I’m still pissed about that 2023 season-opening loss.
Oregon quarterback Dante Moore, thinking about the prospect of being drafted by the Jets, said, “Yeah, let’s run it back in Eugene, shall we?” If we lose the Jets at home, that could be the KOC version of Zimmer’s 2021 loss to the 0-10-1 Lions. Then the end of the line. The only difference is that the Jets have no potential. It would be very, very, very bad. Please, no. Cue the classic Michael Scott clip.
So how did I do? Agree? Somewhat agree? Disagree? “Shawn, you’re delusional?” Have at it in the comments.
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