Even though the Rams have the number one offense in the NFL, it is actually L.A.’s advantage on defense over the Chicago Bears that has the widest gap. The Rams ranked fourth on defense by DVOA, which means Defense-adjusted Value Over Average, a statistic measuring the value of each individual play and weighted based on the competency of your opponent. So yes, it is adjusted based on your strength of schedule and your opponent, giving DVOA a slight advantage over basic numbers like points and yards allowed.
Well, while the Rams were fourth in defensive DVOA, the Bears were 25th.
Not that surprising given that by almost any measure, defenses as bad as Chicago’s has been this season rarely get this far in the NFL playoffs.
According to FTN Fantasy, previously known as FootballOutsiders, the L.A. Rams have significant advantages over the Chicago Bears on offense and defense, but unsurprisingly are at a slight disadvantage on special teams:
- Offense DVOA: Rams 1st, Bears 9th
- Defense DVOA: Rams 4th, Bears 25th
- Special Teams DVOA: Rams 26th, Bears 18th
According to DVOA creator Aaron Schatz, the Rams ranked as one of the best overall teams in the history of the stat, ranking 9th since 1978:
It could also setup one hell of an NFC Championship game if both the Rams and Seahawks (7th since 1978) win over the weekend.
Whereas the Rams have a historic offense, the Seahawks feature a historic defense, giving fans the potential for an all-timer next week if both teams win. Conversely, the two teams will meet the Bears and 49ers, teams that do not even belong in the conversation but nonetheless have a chance to pull an upset and reach the NFC Championship game because anything can happen in the playoffs.
The 49ers rank 10th in DVOA and have the number two offense, just behind L.A., but the number 27 defense, ranking worse than Chicago.
The worst special teams unit remaining in the playoffs.
By EPA (estimated points added), the Rams were consistently losing points on special teams in each of their first six games in the regular season, as well as 10 of their first 11. The only exception was Week 7’s blowout win over the Jaguars.
Things were never worse than the division-losing TNF game to the Seahawks, a season-worst -15 EPA on special teams. Firing Chase Blackburn may have sent a message, but it didn’t fix the issues.
But the following week, the Rams had a season-best +6 special teams EPA despite losing to the Falcons. L.A.’s wild card win over the Panthers ended up being their 4th-best special teams game of the season, perhaps signaling a slight return to average for the Rams going into the divisional round, as Harrison Mevis went 2-of-2 on field goals and 4-of-4 on extra points and Ethan Evans didn’t do too shabby on punts.
The Rams have had arguably the worst kickoff unit in the NFL, the only team in the league that regularly still kicks touchbacks, but that wasn’t the case in Carolina. Can the Rams force the Bears to return kicks in the cold weather and not start every drive at the 35?
Luckily, it’s not as though the Rams are facing a beast on special teams on the other side. Chicago is barely below average. With a defense that ranks in the bottom-10 though, will the Bears be able to keep the game close enough for it to even matter?
