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NFL Divisional Round Playoffs: Same-game parlays to target

One long-shot angle worth targeting pairs Drake Maye’s downfield efficiency with Demario Douglas’ separation and explosive profile, making a bet like Maye over his passing yards alongside Douglas clearing a modest yardage threshold an intriguing upside play. On the other side, if New England’s pass game forces Houston into a negative script, Xavier Hutchinson’s expanded role without Nico Collins sets him up as the most likely Texans receiver to benefit from increased volume.


NFL Divisional Round Playoffs: Same-game parlays to target

NFL Divisional Round Playoffs: Same-game parlays to target

Same-game parlays (SGPs) let you combine multiple bets from a single game into one ticket, increasing the potential payout if your game script hits. Our SGP picks are built around data-driven narratives — how a matchup is likely to unfold, which players are best positioned to benefit and where the edges lie.

This week, we’re also leaning on the new PFF Player Prop Tool, available exclusively for PFF+ members. It highlights the props with the highest probability of success, surfaces matchup insights that NFL teams themselves track and syncs with sportsbooks in real time, so you always know where the best number is.

Here are our top SGP picks for the divisional round, each tied to a clear story the data suggests could play out.

Part of the reason the Houston Texans have allowed the sixth-most deep passes in the NFL is their heavy reliance on single-high coverages, as they rank fourth in single-high usage over the past few months.

Demario Douglas has been especially dangerous against single-high coverage, pairing one of the best separation rates in the NFL with an elite mark in yards per route run.

With Mack Hollins sidelined, Douglas operated firmly as New England’s WR3, logging 21 receiving snaps compared to nine for Kyle Williams and just four for EftonChism III. That opens the door to a correlated long-shot angle built around Drake Maye connecting on deep shots.

SGP Build
  • QB Drake Maye, New England Patriots: 280+ passing yards & under 29.5 attempts
  • WR Demario Douglas, New England Patriots: 60+ receiving yards

And, as discussed in our data-driven bets article, this Patriots defense profiles as a pass funnel. If New England is efficient through the air, there’s a clear path to increased volume for Houston in a trailing script.

With Nico Collins out, Xavier Hutchinson has been the primary beneficiary, stepping into a full-time role and leading the Texans in both target rate (23%) and yards per route run (2.35) in games without Collins.

If Houston does find success against man coverage and a receiver emerges, Hutchinson’s efficiency and expanded role make him the most likely candidate.

SGP Build
  • QB CJ Stroud, Houston Texans: 300+ passing yards
  • WR Xavier Hutchinson, Houston Texans: 70 + receiving yards
  • New England Patriots: -3

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Our blog is all about curating the best stories, insights, and updates on your favorite teams. Whether you’re a passionate fan or just love the game, SportSourcio is here to keep you connected with what’s happening on and off the field.

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