Temperature estimates for Sunday’s divisional playoff game between the Rams and Bears in Chicago are sitting around 20 degrees, leading to a snowball effect of opinions that the home team has an advantage. So why does history not support that theory whatsoever?
Over the last 20 years, divisional round playoff games at 20 degrees or below have been won by the ROAD TEAM more often than the home team.
Home teams are 2-3 in 20 or below since 2005:
2025: Bills (home) beat Ravens 27-25
2022: 49ers (away) beat Packers 13-10
2018: Jaguars (away) beat Steelers 45-42
2015: Patriots (home) beat Ravens 35-31
2013: Ravens (away) beat Broncos 38-35 (2 OT)
(Years are actual years, not seasons)
Every single cold weather game was close. The last blowout in a cold weather division game was a Steelers win over the Bills in 1996. Pittsburgh was at home but that same weekend the Colts went to Kansas City and beat the Chiefs in 11 degree weather, 10-7.
All-time home team record in 20 degrees or below in the divisional round: 11-7
But in the last 10 cases, both home and road teams have 5 wins.
When you expand the criteria beyond divisional round and include ANY playoff game in 20 or below degrees, then since 2005 home teams have a combined record of 10-11.
10 and 11.
The home team has lost more often than they’ve won.
Some are saying that no, it’s not gonna be 20 degrees…it’s gonna be FREEZING cold. It’s gonna feel even colder than that.
Okay.
In 15 degrees or below, home teams are 4-7 in their last 11 such playoff games. 4-7. The home teams.
Does anything matter more than the fact that the Bears are an overrated 11-6 team that is lucky to be here?
Not really. Definitely not the weather. The Bears can’t play defense in any weather so I expect the road weather teams to keep up their hot streak.
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