I have never really seen anything like it. Given that it has been thirty years since a team started 8-2 and missed the playoffs and I am thirty-seven, it stands to reason why. That is a long time ago, and seven-year-old me wasn’t watching much football. We all know the story at this point, but what are the “why’s” we can point to in order for us to properly digest the massive fall from grace the Indianapolis Colts experienced in the second half? Here are a few thoughts.
One of the most obvious reasons is that the competition stiffened: Chiefs, Texans and Jaguars twice, Seahawks, and 49ers. With the exception of the Chiefs, all of those teams made the playoffs. Now, with the exception of the Jaguars, all of those teams are in the divisional round. Beating up on the Titans twice and the Raiders made fans feel good, but it inflated team stats and skewed the optics of how good they really were.
Anytime a team loses its starting quarterback, it hurts. No matter how serviceable Philip Rivers was, swapping him for Daniel Jones was a downgrade. That isn’t to say Jones wouldn’t have gone winless too, but let’s be honest when talking about a five-year-retired player making a comeback versus an established and active player. Injuries to other players had an impact, but which team didn’t suffer injuries? Outside of quarterback, other arguments seem moot.
Going back to the argument of higher quality opponents, the offense wasn’t nearly as efficient in the second half. In the wins, the Colts averaged over 35 points. It started with Pittsburgh but carried over post-bye in which their average sank to 20.7. While understanding a good offense helps the defense, all the blame can’t be placed on one side of the ball. In the wins, the defense gave up 19, but after the bye, that rose to 29.4. Like two ships passing in the night but in the wrong direction, the second half of the season was doomed.
I am sure there are more X’s and O’s others can point to, but the big picture remains clear: a tough schedule meets losing your quarterback which turns into a lack of efficiency on both sides of the ball. It is as simple as that. Does that mean the Colts had to go and lose every game after the bye? Of course not, but it is plain to see why it happened. Expectations were low this season, and the Colts overperformed early on. The law of averages came back around and brought them back to reality. Regardless of the reason, it is still remarkable that the Colts took a break and literally said “bye” to winning.
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