Matthew Stafford went from not winning a single playoff game in more than a decade with the Detroit Lions to being known for playing his best ball when the postseason rolls around for the Los Angeles Rams.
In Stafford’s first season in LA, he was amidst a slump over the second half of the year. He took his game to another level into the playoffs and led the Rams to a Super Bowl victory.
LA’s leading man has earned his reputation as a postseason gamer. However, it’s been a while since we last saw him perform at a high level when the circumstances change to win or go home.
Stafford’s 2021 run was special
There’s no better way to win the hearts of fans than to bring home the Lombardi Trophy in the your first year with a new franchise. The Rams won Super Bowl LVI because of Stafford. Sure, they had a star-studded roster. They also had zero production from the running game in the postseason and watched their pass catchers drop like flies week by week, including Cooper Kupp, Odell Beckham, Jr, and Tyler Higbee.
These were Stafford’s passing metrics according to Pro Football Focus (PFF):
BTT – big-time throw
TWP – turnover-worthy play
ADOT – average depth of target
ADJ% – adjusted completion rate (accounts for throwaways, drops, spikes, etc.)
- Wildcard vs Cardinals: 90.6 passing grade; 1 BTT; 1 TWP; 10.5 ADOT; 94.1 ADJ%
- Divisional at Buccaneers: 71.2 passing grade; 3 BTT; 1 TWP; 8.4 ADOT; 82.4 ADJ%
- NFC CG vs 49ers: 80.7 passing grade; 3 BTT; 1 TWP; 9.9 ADOT; 80.5 ADJ%
- SB vs Bengals: 80.9 passing grade; 4 BTT; 1 TWP; 9.2 ADOT; 69.2 ADJ%
Playoff totals: 89.0 passing grade; 11 BTT; 4 TWP; 9.4 ADOT; 79.4 ADJ%
It simply doesn’t get much better than this. Not only was Stafford aggressive by throwing the ball on average longer than nine yards, but he was also extremely accurate with an ADJ% over 80 in three of four games. Stafford threw receivers open far more often than he put the ball in harm’s way.
2023 – good, not good enough
- Wildcard at Lions: 86.1 passing grade; 4 BTT; 0 TWP; 9.5 ADOT; 78.8 ADJ%
For context, this was the first year of the Rams defensive overhaul. They drafted in volume on defense and gave run to rookies despite being infamous for not usually giving run to young players. Byron Young and Kobie Turner led the youth movement in Aaron Donald’s final season.
But for as good as this defense was, all things considered, Jared Goff and the Lions got the best of them in the playoffs. Goff converted a high leverage fourth down to ensure Stafford didn’t have a chance to win the game.
2024 – the first signs of trouble
The Rams opened the 2024 playoffs with a blowout of Sam Darnold and the Minnesota Vikings. It took a total team effort to lead to this result. The defense totally rattled Darnold and set the tone for the postseason. Stafford was OK in this game although he didn’t need to do much.
- Wildcard vs Vikings: 76.9 passing grade; 2 BTT; 0 TWP; 8.0 ADOT; 76.9 ADJ%
- Divisional at Eagles: 63.3 passing grade; 1 BTT; 4 TWP; 11.0 ADOT; 72.5 ADJ%
Playoff totals: 70.4 passing grade; 3 BTT; 4 TWP; 9.8 ADOT; 74.2 ADJ%
Rams fans have more fond memories of the snowy Eagles can than the tape reflects, because Stafford was heroic in bringing his team back and giving them a chance to win late. Still, he was also one of the reasons why LA trailed. He often put the ball in harm’s way with four potential turnovers and posted the lowest accuracy rate of his Rams playoff career to date (Super Bowl aside).
2025 – where is “Playoff Stafford”?
- Wildcard at Panthers: 61.0 passing grade; 3 BTT; 3 TWP; 11.7 ADOT; 67.5 ADJ%
It’s been three playoff games since we’ve seen Stafford perform at a high level. This flies in the face of his reputation as someone who rises to the occasion in the postseason.
If the Rams are going to beat the Chicago Bears on Sunday—and make good on their Super Bowl aspirations—they need him to dig deeper and play like we’ve grown accustomed to.
