Texans vs. Patriots Divisional-Round Preview: Kickoff time, TV schedule, betting Insights
The Houston Texans travel to Foxborough, Mass., to face the New England Patriots on Sunday, Jan. 18, with kickoff set for 3:00 pm ET on ESPN.
Below, we break down the spread, moneyline and total using PFF’s market data, compare the two starting quarterbacks through stable efficiency metrics and highlight the team-level advantages that could swing this game.
This preview also dives into notable injuries, trench mismatches and unit-level grades that matter most on Sunday, with all data powered by PFF Premium Stats and betting projections.
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Click here to see PFF’s data-backed bets for this game
Team Metrics
| Texans | Patriots | |
|---|---|---|
| Power Rank: Overall | 4th | 6th |
| Power Rank: Defense | 1st | 8th |
| Power Rank: Offense | 17th | 3rd |
| SOS Played | 18th | 32nd |
| Avg Offensive Snaps | 69.1 | 65.4 |
| % Run Plays | 40.3% | 40.2% |
| % Pass Plays | 59.7% | 59.8% |
| EPA Per Run | -0.14 | -0.12 |
| EPA Per Pass | 0.06 | 0.26 |
QB Comparison
| Texans | Patriots | |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterback | C. Stroud | D. Maye |
| PFF Grade | 71.9 | 89.6 |
| Passer Rating Clean | 107.7 | 119.9 |
| Passer Rating Under Pressure | 60.9 | 93.4 |
| Big-Time Throw % | 3.29% | 3.99% |
| Turnover-Worthy Play % | 3.11% | 2.81% |
| Power Rating | 3.5 | 5.5 |
| Power Rating Rank | 12th | 5th |
Key Injuries: Texans
| Player | Pos | Injury | Status | Grade | Pos WAR Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| N. Collins | WR | Head | Q | 85.9 | 13th |
| J. Jordan | HB | Leg | Q | 79.2 | 75th |
| J. Hansen | LB | Torso | IR | 77.1 | 79th |
| T. Settle | DI | Leg | IR | 71.3 | 36th |
| J. Smith | CB | Other | IR | 68.7 | 136th |
| J. Watson | WR | Head | Q | 55.7 | 236th |
| F. Fatukasi | DI | Arm | IR | 49.9 | 142nd |
Key Injuries: Patriots
| Player | Pos | Injury | Status | Grade | Pos WAR Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C. Gonzalez | CB | Head | Q | 67.9 | 24th |
| M. Hollins | WR | Torso | IR | 67.5 | 73rd |
| K. Tonga | DI | Leg | Q | 67.2 | 55th |
| T. Jennings | HB | Head | IR | 65.2 | 90th |
| A. Gibson | HB | Leg | IR | 55.1 | 129th |
| J. Farmer | DI | Leg | IR | 49.0 | 139th |
| C. Reynolds | HB | Other | OUT | 48.3 | 122nd |
Betting insights: Spread
| Spread | Texans | Patriots |
|---|---|---|
| Market | +3 (-110) | -3 (-110) |
| PFF Projection | +1.4 | -1.4 |
| Implied Cover Probability | 53.2% | 39.9% |
| Break Even | 48.8% | 48.8% |
| Value | 4.4% | -8.9% |
| $$$% | — | — |
| Bets% | — | — |
Betting insights: Moneyline
| Moneyline | Texans | Patriots |
|---|---|---|
| Market | +144 | -173 |
| PFF Projection | +104 | -103 |
| Implied Win Probability | 49.1% | 50.8% |
| Break Even | 40.9% | 63.3% |
| Value | 8.2% | -12.5% |
| $$$% | — | — |
| Bets% | — | — |
Betting insights: Total
| Total | Under | Over |
|---|---|---|
| Market | 41 (-110) | 41 (-110) |
| PFF Projection | 41.5 | 41.5 |
| Implied Cover Probability | 45.2% | 47.7% |
| Break Even | 48.7% | 48.7% |
| Value | -3.4% | -1.0% |
| $$$% | — | — |
| Bets% | — | — |
