The New York Giants are widely considered to have one of the top coaching vacancies among the teams on this year’s coaching carousel.
The Giants have quite a bit going for them when it comes to attracting top candidates. In addition to well-respected ownership, they have young and talented players at cornerstone positions like left tackle, edge defender, wide receiver, and cornerback. They also have young and talented pieces at running back, tight end, and safety, as well as a healthy salary cap to re-sign home-grown talents.
The Giants might have finished with just four wins, but they were had double digit leads as underdogs on five other occasions. It took a series of historic collapses by players who had previously played far better than they showed under Brian Daboll and Shane Bowen for the Giants to lose all five of those games. There’s a real argument that the Giants could have finished with a 9-8 record, and perhaps would have done so with better coaching.
But perhaps the Giants’ greatest asset is 22-year old quarterback Jaxson Dart.
Dianna Russinni of The Athletic is reporting that John Harbaugh is spending this weekend preparing for his (expected) interviews next week, and is watching tape of quarterbacks Jaxson Dart and Cam Ward in particular.
Only Harbaugh — well, Harbaugh and those in his inner circle — knows what he’s looking for in a quarterback. That said, the view from the outside is that there’s a lot to like when it comes to Dart.
He immediately assumed control of the team, with the charisma and magnetic personality we’ve heard about since the Senior Bowl galvanizing the team after veteran Russell Wilson was benched. Dart also quickly proved to be far more advanced mentally than we expected based on the Ole Miss offense.
Dart improved on an almost weekly basis and proved able to handle increasingly more sophisticated concepts. By the end of the season, Dart was playing from under center as well as executing full-field reads. Those are two things he never did in Lane Kiffin’s offense, but took to well with pro coaching. Dart also showed an impressive balance of aggression and discretion as a passer. He finished with a 15:5 touchdown to interception ratio that could have been even better if it weren’t for drops, penalties, and unlucky bounces.
He has the ability to throw from a wide variety of arm angles, as well as throw on the move. Dart is a former baseball player and his skill set shows itself in his arm talent as well as how he throws the ball off platform. He also shows an uncommon understanding of throwing with timing, touch, and anticipation for a young quarterback. Many young quarterbacks come into the NFL with a tendency to lean on their fastball, throwing as hard even when throwing with pace might lead to a better result. Dart throws a very catchable ball, despite the Giants finishing among the worst teams in catch rate. He also understands how to layer the ball and find voids in coverage.
There’s also, of course, Dart’s running ability. He finished the season second in rushing touchdowns among rookie quarterbacks in NFL history. Dart’s scrambling and rushing was a big reason why the Giants finished with one of the best run games in the NFL last year — finishing 5th in yards per game and EPA, and 4th in touchdowns.
Harbaugh has had plenty of success with the relatively immobile pocket passer Joe Flacco as well as the hyper-mobile dual threat Lamar Jackson. Harbaugh could see plenty to appeal in both aspects of Dart’s game.
Russinni notes that Harbaugh is watching tape, while Ian Rapoport of the NFL Network says that Harbaugh is being “diligent” in his own process of vetting openings. It’s likely that he’ll be evaluating all the data he can get his hands on.
The Ravens have built one of the NFL’s most advanced analytics, and Dart was remarkably efficient once he got the starting job and was the most impressive rookie quarterback.
Dart finished 14th among all quarterbacks in EPA+CPOE composite* with at least 250 pass attempts since Week 4. That composite has been among the most predictive of future success, and Dart finished neatly between Trevor Lawrence (13th) and Justin Herbert (15th). He also finished 14th in Air Yards with an average of 8.2.
*expected points added and completion percentage above expected
Tyler Shough finished 20th in the composite rankings, while Cam Ward finished 31st.
It’s also worth noting that the Cleveland Browns are the only team with a more highly respected analytics department than the Ravens, so both John Harbaugh and Kevin Stefanski are used to using advanced data analysis to help inform their decisions.
There is, of course still plenty for Dart to work on. First and foremost, he needs to continue to develop his sense of when to put his body on the line. And while Dart improved by leaps and bounds this year, showing skills nobody expected of him, he definitely needs to continue to improve his footwork.
NFL offenses are designed to use a quarterback’s footwork in his drop to time the play. The pace of his steps is the metronome that syncs up the throw with the routes. Dart tends to use more of a shuffling drop, playing loose and seeming to vibe with the play. He still throws with anticipation, often starting his motion before the receiver makes his break. However, there are too many instances where he’s desynced from the play, rushes his process, and goes out of structure before the play even has a chance to develop. Improving his footwork will also make his throwing mechanics more consistent and unlock his arm strength.
Dart is generally considered to be the type of quarterback with whom coaches want to work. John Harbaugh’s (or any candidate’s) desire to work with Dart could be the deciding factor in the Giants’ favor.
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