Steve Maltepes, known as “The Philly Godfather,” will impart his gambling wisdom on the Eagles and where the smart money is going on various pro football games each weekend this season. Maltepes is one of the nation’s hottest sports betting experts who appears weekly on national radio, is the best-selling author of “Booked: The True Life Story of the PhillyGodfather,”and has his own website, www.thephillygodfather.com.
San Francisco 49ers (12-5) at Philadelphia Eagles (11-6) at 4:25 p.m. Sunday
The Line: Eagles minus-5.5/Total: 44.5
What is the line telling you:
The line on this game originally opened with the Eagles as 3.5-point home favorites, with a total of 46.5. Since then, we’ve seen sharp money enter the market on Philadelphia, forcing bookmakers to move the line a full two points to Eagles -5.5. The total, on the other hand, has seen a two-point downtick and currently sits at 44.5.
Early bet splits in both the U.S. and offshore markets are surprisingly tilted toward the 49ers at nearly a 60% clip.
When handicapping this matchup, the first thing that stands out is that the 49ers finished the season with one more win than the Eagles at 12–5. However, their strength of schedule was one of the easiest in the NFL, ranking 19th overall, with only three wins all season against teams with winning records.
The Eagles are also the much healthier team heading into Sunday, holding an overall +12 health advantage, which is massive entering the playoffs. If you’re looking to bet the total this week, pay close attention to the weather. Winds are expected to exceed 15 mph, which could significantly impact the passing games of both teams.
Bottom line:
Even though I believe the Eagles are the superior team and have more quality wins while playing a tougher strength of schedule, it’s difficult for me to lay the -5.5 points with the home favorite based on recent offensive performance. Outside of Week 18, when they rested starters, and games against Washington and Las Vegas—two of the worst defenses in the NFL—the Eagles have averaged just 15 points per game in six of their last eight contests.
I do like the Eagles this week, but instead of laying the points, I suggest using them in a 7-point teaser, catching +1.5, paired with either the Pittsburgh Steelers at +10 or the Jaguars at +7.
Prop bets for the game:
Anytime TD: Christian McCaffrey (-135)
Jalen Hurts (+110)
George Kittle (+190)
A.J. Brown (+150)
(Betting lines are subject to change.)
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