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Los Angeles Rams (-10.5) vs. Carolina Panthers

WR Tetairoa McMillan, Carolina Panthers: Over 4.5 receptions (+110)

With Carolina opening as 10.5-point underdogs — the largest spread ever for a team hosting a wild-card game — the Panthers are likely to be forced into a more aggressive passing approach than usual. In one-score games, Carolina’s pass rate sits at 55.4%, ranking 29th in the NFL, but that figure jumps by more than 12 percentage points when trailing by 10 or more.

The Rams also generate pressure at the fourth-highest rate in the league, a dynamic that should funnel targets toward Bryce Young’s preferred option. McMillan leads the Panthers by a wide margin in targets when defenses generate pressure and ranks 17th among all receivers in target rate on pressured dropbacks.

In coverage, the Rams have struggled to limit production to wide receivers, ranking 23rd in receptions allowed to the position this season. That trend has persisted late in the year, with the secondary ranking inside the bottom 10 in open targets allowed to wide receivers since the start of December.

QB Jordan Love, Green Bay Packers: Over 215.5 passing yards (-120)

While January weather in Chicago could be a factor — with wind and the possibility of snow — the underlying metrics still point toward a productive outing for Jordan Love against the Bears’ defense. Chicago has struggled to generate consistent pressure this season, ranking 29th in pressure rate.

Love has thrived from clean pockets, ranking second in the NFL in PFF passing grade (94.6) and yards per attempt (9.2). With his full complement of receivers healthy and time to deliver the football, Love is well-positioned to capitalize in this matchup.

Another metric worth highlighting is Love’s ability to push the ball downfield. He ranks third in completions of 20-plus yards and now faces a Bears secondary that has allowed the fifth-most deep passing yards in the NFL this season, setting up opportunities for chunk gains through the air.

Love’s Week 16 meeting with Chicago was cut short after he exited the game early, leaving that performance inconclusive. In the first matchup two weeks earlier, however, he averaged 9.4 yards per attempt, recorded three big-time throws and cleared this yardage line with 234 passing yards.