Welcome to Week 4 of the Fantasy Football season! Week 3 was looking like another frustrating, low-scoring week after the Thursday and Sunday games. But then Monday night happened, and WHAM! We got treated to a MNF doubleheader and three of the four teams broke 30 points. Unfortunately, the fourth team was the Jacksonville Jaguars, who stunk once again. When can we stop talking about Bryce Young, and start talking about Trevor Lawrence?
Anyway, maybe Monday’s scoring explosion will carry over into Week 4 and we’ll get out of the fantasy doldrums. Some injured stars could return this week too, which would be nice. Can’t we have nice things in fantasy? We’ll see. In any case, it’s time to get ready for our last week before the Byes start.
A quick word about fantasy matchups, because there’s enough of a sample size now to start seeing important patterns. If you have fantasy players facing the Commanders, light a cigar, pour a cold one, sit back, and enjoy your Sunday. It’s going to be fun, just like it was last season. On the flip side, three defenses are shaping up as problems: The Steelers, the Vikings, and for passing in particular, the Jets. Here’s a fun stat: The Steelers are the first team in 40 years to start the season 3-0 despite scoring just three TDs in their first three games. They’ve allowed the fewest points in the NFL (26), and on top of that they’ve yielded the fewest fantasy points per game (FPPG) to opposing QBs and the second fewest FPPG to opposing RBs. The Steelers’ D being super-stingy isn’t a big surprise. Brian Flores’ Minnesota unit is. They’ve allowed only 30 points in three games, and it’s not like they’ve played bad offenses. They just stymied the 49ers and Texans, back-to-back. As for the Jets, they’ve been the worst matchup for QBs and WRs since the start of the 2023 season. Sauce Gardner and Company have allowed just one TD pass to a WR so far this season, and that’s on-brand, as they only allowed five all of last season.
While we’re here, let’s also talk about the other best corner in football, Patrick Surtain II. The Broncos have allowed the fewest FPPG and passing yards to opposing WRs so far in 2024, and he’s a big part of that. Opposing No. 1 WRs D.K. Metcalf, George Pickens, and Mike Evans all saw a lot of Surtain when they faced the Broncos. How did they do? Well, all three were held to three or fewer catches and 30 or fewer yards. Ouch. Can we call it Surtain Island? Peninsula? Isthmus? Where are my geography geeks? As it happens, Sauce and the Jets host Surtain and the Broncos this week. A cornerback clinic! I’ll talk more about matchups to exploit and avoid in the Rides, Fades and Sleepers.
Stats of the Week:
Jayden Daniels was the player I hyped the most in the preseason. It’s early, but can I save time and take a victory lap now? And I wonder, a month from now, are we going to be having the same discussions we had last year about C.J. Stroud and Bryce Young, with Caleb Williams and Jayden Daniels?
This week’s stats are all about Jayden:
The Commanders-Bengals game was the first NFL game since at least 1940 where neither team punted nor turned the ball over the entire game.
More insanity: The Commanders have scored on every possession they’ve had over their last two games (minus kneel downs to end a half), covering 13 straight possessions. Hence, they haven’t punted, committed a turnover, or turned the ball over on downs in two full games. You read that right. As a reminder, this was the second worst team in the NFL last year.
Even more insanity: Peyton Manning, Tom Brady, Drew Brees, and Patrick Mahomes are all pretty good QBs, right? Well, they each had two games in their entire career (in Mahomes’s case, so far) where their team scored on every possession (minus kneel downs to end a half). Daniels did it twice in his first three NFL games! Dude!
Since I’m talking so much about Daniels, let’s give a quick nod to his #1 WR at L.S.U., who is also showing out early as a rookie.
Malik Nabers is the first player in NFL history to have 20 receptions, 250 receiving yards, and three receiving TDs in his first three career games. He’s also the youngest receiver ever to have two TD catches in game (he turned 21 at the end of July).
Jayden and Malik, you’re going to make the NFC East a lot more fun, for a long time. Let’s geaux!
Guffaw of the Week: The Dolphins scored 67 more points in Week 3, 2023 than they did in Week 3, 2024. I have no words…
OK, Week 4, here we go!
Bye Weeks: None
Injury Watch: There are once again so many players either already OUT, likely OUT, or iffy, that I’ll leave it up to you to track your own players ahead of their kickoffs. Watch the Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday practice reports, and always check the inactives when they’re released 90 minutes before kickoff.
Week 4 Rides, Fades and Sleepers
For those who are familiar with this column, you know the drill. For everyone else: The Rides, Fades, and Sleepers is an analysis of players that I think are primed for an especially strong or poor performance, in many cases, as compared to consensus expectations. This isn’t a straight-up Start/Sit exercise, and as a general rule, always start your studs. I’ll rarely list the most obvious names at a position as “Rides” because those players are matchup-proof and are almost always expected to have strong performances, plus you don’t need me or anyone else telling you to start Josh Allen, Saquon Barkley, or Justin Jefferson. While this analysis is intended for season-long play, it works for DFS formats too. Half PPR scoring and Expert Consensus Rankings (ECR) are used for the column.
Each week, I’m picking a Ride of the Week, a Fade of the Week, and a Sleeper of the Week. The rules are simple. The Ride of the Week can’t be a truly elite option, the Fade of the Week can’t be someone who almost nobody is starting anyway, and the Sleeper of the Week must be an actual sleeper, from down in the rankings.
The Rides, Fades, and Sleepers had a good showing in Week 3. My Ride of the Week was Joe Burrow (25.4 fantasy points), my Fade of the Week was Jaylen Waddle (4.6 fantasy points), and my Sleeper of the Week was Bucky Irving, who finished just inside the Top 24 RBs. Beyond those correct calls, the results were mixed, but I had more hits than misses and that included Jauan Jennings as a WR sleeper. You can check my work here: WEEK 3 PREVIEW.
Ride of the Week:
Marvin Harrison, Jr. (vs. WAS). This one is easy. Harrison has three TDs over his last two games after his Week 1 dud. He has entered the weekly “must-start” conversation. The Cardinals could be without TE Trey McBride, in what should be a high-scoring game. And the #1 reason to feel great about Harrison this week is his matchup. The Commanders’ “defense” picked up right where it left off in 2023. Washington has allowed the most FPPG to opposing WRs, and a league-worst nine TD catches to the position though just three games. Harrison is a green light special this week.
Fade of the Week:
Rachaad White (vs. PHI). I’ve been high on rookie RB Bucky Irving since the preseason, and I don’t see how the Bucs’ coaching staff can keep giving White the majority of snaps given his glaring inefficiency, which has always been an issue (but not this bad). White is very good as a receiving back and is solid in pass protection, so I think he’ll keep the third down and two-minute work. But Irving has been so much better as a runner (6.2 yards per carry vs. 2.1 For White) that I don’t see a lot of value for White this week and going forward, other than in Full PPR where he could be a Flex if you’re stuck. The Eagles have been decent against the run and have not allowed an RB to score yet this season, either on the ground or through the air. Sit White this week.
Sleeper of the Week:
Khalil Shakir (@ BAL). Josh Allen is spreading the ball around, but Shakir has led the team in targets each of the last two weeks and is emerging as the team’s top pass-catching option. He’s ranked just outside the Top-35 this week and for me that’s too low as I think he’s squarely in the WR3/Flex conversation. The Ravens have allowed the fourth-most FPPG to WRs on the season, and have also allowed two TDs from the slot, where Shakir often lines up (and have struggled vs. inside WRs in particular). Get Shakir in your lineup in you can.
Quarterback:
Elite options this week – Josh Allen, Jalen Hurts, Kyler Murray, and Lamar Jackson;
Rides:
Jayden Daniels (@ARI). I’d love to list Kyler Murray, but he’s ranked as the QB1 this week so he isn’t eligible for this exercise. The Commanders defense continues to be the most generous in the land for opposing QBs and WRs, and Washington will need to score like they did on Monday night to have a chance in this contest. It’s cross-country travel on a short week, so I’m slightly cautious, but Arizona brings in a below-average defense and this game has shootout written all over it. The Vegas total of 50.5 is the highest of the week and with two electric QBs in action, this could be among the most fun games of the year. Play all your main pieces in WAS@ARI.
Joe Burrow (@CAR). There’s no reason to get off the train this week. At 0-3, the Bengals can’t afford another slip-up against a lesser team, and Burrow isn’t the reason they lost last week. He’s got all his weapons healthy and is a very safe bet for another 20+ point week. The Panthers have allowed the fourth-most FPPG to opposing QBs, and only the woeful Commanders have allowed more than the seven TD passes that Carolina has already surrendered this season.
C.J. Stroud (vs. JAC). Stroud has had two really bad games so far in his career—at the Jets last season and at Minnesota last week. It happens. The good news is he gets a soft landing this week against a Jaguars’ defense that’s reeling. Josh Allen ate them for dinner on Monday night, and Stroud is poised to do the same in a get-right, division game for the Texans. The Jaguars have allowed the third most FPPG to opposing QBs.
Dak Prescott (@NYG). Dak came to life in a furious second half comeback attempt against the Ravens, and his recent history of dominance against the Giants is too much to ignore. Bad weather is possible in New Jersey on Thursday night, but I still expect a solid outing from Prescott.
Other QBs ranked in the Top 15 that I think will outperform their weekly ranking this week: Patrick Mahomes (@LAC) and Justin Fields (@IND). True story: Mahomes is the QB13 through three weeks.
Sleepers: If you’re stuck, or are in a Superflex, five lower-ranked QBs that I think you can consider this week are Will Levis (@MIA), Geno Smith (@DET), Andy Dalton (vs. CIN), Caleb Williams (vs. LAR), and Gardner Minshew (vs. CLE).
Fades:
Justin Herbert (vs. LAC). Few are using Herbert as a QB1, but he’s a regular start in 2-QB leagues and I’d stay away this week, if he even plays. He’s clearly not 100%, is at major risk of re-injury (as happened last week), and the Chiefs are a tough matchup.
Anthony Richardson (vs. PIT). If you drafted Richardson to be your QB1, and many of you did, he’s tough to sit. In any given week, his range of outcomes is as wide as any QB, and you took him to tap into that massive upside. He scored 27 fantasy points in Week 1, but has struggled mightily since, with two bad outings. His INT in the end zone last week, which could’ve been picked off by any of three different Bears, might be the worst throw I’ve seen this season (although Will Levis might ask me to hold his beer if he reads this). Anyway, the Bears were a bad matchup in Week 3, and the Steelers are even worse this week (see above). I’d look elsewhere.
Sam Darnold (@GB). I’ll go contrarian here. If you’re waiting for Sam Darnold to turn back into Sam Darnold, this might be the week. The Vikings hit the road this week for the first time since Week 1, and it’s a big NFC North matchup. I think this might be the week that the stage feels a little big and the slipper comes off. Darnold leads the NFL in TD passes and is crushing it in Kevin O’Connell’s offense. But I don’t think he’ll add much to the TD total this week. Green Bay leads the NFL in interceptions with seven, and I think they’ll be able to confuse and confound Darnold with different pressures and looks.
Matt Stafford (@CHI). The Bears are a tough matchup (they’ve allowed the fourth-fewest FPPG to opposing QBs, and just two TD passes in three games), and while Stafford is playing very well and making do with what he has, his shortage of weapons makes him a very dicey play on the road against this defense.
Others: For those who play Superflex, these are some lower-ranked (and pretty obvious) QB options that I’d avoid: Jacoby Brissett (@SF), Miami QBs (vs. TEN), and Bo Nix (@NYJ).
Running back:
Elite options this week – Bijan Robinson, Breece Hall, Saquon Barkley, and Alvin Kamara; the analysis starts below them.
Rides:
Jordan Mason (vs. NE). Mason has seen his production decline each week since his big outburst in Week 1, but this game is a mismatch and I think the script will favor a big game from the 49er backup. The Patriots were gashed by the combination of Breece Hall and Braelon Allen last week and while Mason doesn’t have their burst, it’s a long trip west to get into the woodshed for Jarod Mayo’s team, and Mason will be one of the main beneficiaries when the game starts to get out of hand.
Aaron Jones (@GB). Revenge game! I rarely buy into that, but in this case I think you’ll see Jones getting plenty of touches and running well, against a defense that’s more vulnerable to the run than the pass.
David Montgomery (vs. SEA). The Lions are the rare team that has two backs who you can start each week with confidence. In fact, right now they’re the only one. Montgomery got 23 carries last week and turned that into 100+ yards and a TD. A similar stat line this week wouldn’t surprise me and especially if standout rookie DT Byron Murphy (hamstring) is out.
Tony Pollard (@MIA). Pollard is ranked all the way down at RB20 this week and I’ve got him as a borderline Top-10 play. The Dolphins are a mess right now, on both sides of the ball. With Christian Wilkins gone, and with their offense not keeping the ball, their run defense has been exposed so far this year. They’ve allowed the second most FPPG, rushing TDs (six) and total TDs (seven) to opposing RBs. Get Pollard in your lineup if you have him.
Najee Harris (@IND). Harris had his arm in a sling after Sunday’s game, but the team says he’s fine. He’s off to a slow start, but he’s sixth in the NFL in carries and is dominating touches more than was anticipated. Better fantasy production is coming, and I think it starts this week. The Colts have allowed the most rushing yards to opposing RBs on the season and Pittsburgh should be able to pound it against them. Harris is ranked as the RB23 this week and that’s way too low for me.
Other RBs ranked from 15-30 at the position that I’m riding this week include: Devin Singletary (vs. DAL), Brian Robinson, Jr. (@ARI), Zach Moss (@CAR), and Jerome Ford (@LV).
Sleepers:
Rico Dowdle (@NYG). I’m not excited about starting any Dallas RB at the moment, but Dowdle is running better than Zeke Elliott and appears to be taking over as the lead back. If Dallas controls this game, he could surprise with a decent stat line. It’s a pretty good matchup.
If you’re truly stuck this week, here are some other lower-ranked running backs (outside the Top-30) that I think you can pencil in: Braelon Allen (vs. DEN), Bucky Irving (vs. PHI), Carson Steele (@LAC, but note that Kareem Hunt is likely to be active for this game and I’d maybe just avoid the KC backs for now), Alexander Mattison (vs. CLE), and Cam Akers (vs. JAC, and assuming Joe Mixon is out again). All except Allen have a legitimate chance to lead their team in touches this week.
Fades:
Kenneth Walker and Zach Charbonnet (@DET). The Lions have been the toughest matchup for RBs going back to the start of last season. Through three games in 2024 they’ve allowed the fewest FPPG to opposing RBs and roughly 50 total yards per game to the position, by far the best in the league. If Charbonnet has the backfield to himself again then he’s a potential Flex option, but assuming Walker returns, this could be more of a split backfield than you’d want, in a terrible matchup.
J.K. Dobbins (vs. KC). Dobbins has been a great story so far this year, and has rewarded fantasy managers who took the advice of smart fantasy analysts (ahem) and grabbed him late. But I’m banking on Justin Herbert either not playing or being limited, and Steve Spagnola isn’t going to let Dobbins beat him. It won’t help that rookie tackle Joe Alt is out for this game. Dobbins struggled to get going vs. the Steelers and I see similar issues for him this week.
Rhamondre Stevenson (@SF). You can run on the 49ers. The Rams did it last week, and the Vikings had success also. But I think the game script in this one is going to get pretty bad, pretty quickly, like it did for New England at the Jets last Thursday night. And that won’t benefit Stevenson. I’m expecting Drake Maye to take over for Jacoby Brissett at some point, which could help Stevenson. Sit tight if you have him.
D’Andre Swift (vs. LAR). It’s a pretty tasty matchup at home, but you can’t trust Swift in lineups right now. He looks terrible and is averaging under two yards per carry. With two other backs getting touches (and doing more with them), it’s a situation you need to avoid. His status as the “starter” is tenuous.
Here are three more RBs who started the season as presumptive “No. 1” RBs on their teams, and who I wouldn’t touch at the moment unless I was really stuck: Ezekiel Elliott (@NYG), Javonte Williams (@PIT), and Zamir White (vs. CLE).
Wide receiver:
Elite options this week –CeeDee Lamb, Ja’Marr Chase, Justin Jefferson, Rashee Rice, and Amon-Ra St. Brown;
Rides:
D.K. Metcalf and Jaxon Smith-Njigba (@DET). The Lions used their top two 2024 draft picks on corners, but they’re still getting thrown on a lot. Part of that is how stingy their run defense is. In any case, they’ve allowed the most completions and yards to opposing WRs so far this season, and the second most FPPG. They’ve been especially vulnerable to slot WRs, so I like JSN to be busy. Metcalf has been feasting in Ryan Grubb’s new Seattle offense and this figures to be a high-scoring affair. Roll with these two ‘Hawks.
Nico Collins (vs. JAC). The Texans were embarrassed at Minnesota last week, but they should have no problem running it up on the Jaguars, who have allowed the seventh-most FPPG to opposing WRs and couldn’t cover anyone at Buffalo on Monday night. It’s never easy to know which WR on the Texans will have the biggest game, but with Tank Dell unlikely to play that’s less of an issue this week. Fire Collins up with confidence this week. Stefon Diggs is a good play also, with Dell most likely out.
Chris Godwin and Mike Evans (vs. PHI). Godwin is an easy call as he’s a Top-5 WR so far this season and the Eagles have struggled against slot WRs. They’ve struggled against WRs, period, which was also a big issue last season. So far in 2024, they’ve allowed the third most FPPG to opposing WRs, and I think both Godwin and Evans will get theirs. Evans was an afterthought last week but part of that was Patrick Surtain II. Todd Bowles talked about how they need to get him more involved and I don’t think he was blowing smoke. Bounce back game incoming.
Other receivers ranked from 12-30 this week that I’ll flag as Rides include Diontae Johnson (vs. CIN), George Pickens (@IND), Terry McLaurin (@ARI), Jauan Jennings (vs. NE), and Tee Higgins (@CAR).
Sleepers (ranked outside the Top 35):
Rome Odunze (vs. LAR). Odunze broke out in Week 3 with a Top-10 finish (and importantly, he got 11 targets), and with Keenan Allen still out, he’s got another chance to shine this week, in a plus matchup. The Rams have allowed the third most yards, the second most FPPG, and the second most TD catches (six) to opposing WRs. Odunze is worth a shot this week. Fun fact: Three WRs went in the Top-10 in the 2024 NFL draft and they combined to score four TDs last week. Just sayin’…
Christian Watson (vs. MIN). I think Jordan Love will be back this week, and so I can’t understand why Watson is ranked as the WR48. Minnesota hasn’t allowed an opposing WR to score yet this season, but they’ve allowed the second most catches and yards to the position. Watson led all WRs in end zone targets per game played last season, and Love targeted him three times in the end zone in Week 1. He’s also a big-play threat. If Love plays, Watson is a decent WR3 or Flex option.
Darnell Mooney (vs. NO). Mooney is ranked way down in the 40s, and for me that’s too low. He’s second on the team in targets and catches, first in yards per catch, and has established himself as the deep threat for Kirk Cousins. He’s in the Flex discussion if you need him this week.
Other WRs ranked outside the top-35 this week that I think you can go with if you’re in need include: Michael Wilson (vs. WAS), Calvin Austin III (@IND), and Demario Douglas (@SF).
Fades:
Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle (vs. TEN). How bad is the QB situation in Miami? Hill is ranked as the WR21 this week. You heard that right. Tyreek freaking Hill is outside the Top-20. And he should be. Look, it’s hard to sit Hill, and he could always break off a long TD, but as of this writing any of three different QBs could be under center for Miami on Monday, and none of them are good options. On top of that, the Titans and their rebuilt secondary are a tough matchup. They’ve allowed the third fewest FPPG to opposing WRs and haven’t allowed a TD to a WR in three games. Imagine having a Ferrari and a Lamborghini in your garage, but you can’t put them on the road because you can’t get the garage door open. Ugh.
Garrett Wilson (vs. DEN). Another big-name Fade for you. See what I wrote in the intro about No. 1 WRs facing the Broncos. Also, the huge Wilson breakout isn’t going according to plan. Through three games he has just 150 receiving yards and one TD. Not terrible, but not what was expected. I think the Jets will be fine winning this game with defense and ball control.
Courtland Sutton (@NYJ). Sutton is coming off his first good game with Bo Nix, and that bodes well for the remainder of the season, but I’d keep him on ice this week. Again, see the column intro for all the gory details on what the Jets do to opposing WRs. It ain’t pretty.
Michael Pittman (vs. PIT). There are a lot of reasons to sit Pittman this week. His QB is struggling, and as a result, so is he. Pittman hasn’t topped six fantasy points in a week and currently sits at the WR73 on the season. Yikes. Also, the Steelers have been stingy. They’ve allowed the fewest catches to the position, and Pittman is a volume player.
Xavier Worthy (@LAC). If you start Worthy, you’re hoping for one big play. Know that going in. The volume just isn’t there, and that makes him a tough start. Even with Hollywood Brown out, he’s only playing 60% of the snaps and has caught exactly two passes in each game. The entire offense is running through Rashee Rice. Worthy has some upside for sure, but is a roster stash/hold for now.
Other “bigger name” Fades this week: Jameson Williams (vs. SEA) and Christian Kirk (@HOU).
Tight end:
Elite options this week – None. After what we’ve seen so far, no TE deserves to be listed as elite. Fun fact: Mark Andrews ran all of SIX routes last week, en route to a goose egg. SIX! What are we doing here, guys?
Rides:
Dalton Kincaid (@BAL). The Bills are going to need to throw to win this game, and Kincaid should be a beneficiary of that. The Ravens have allowed the second most catches and yards to opposing TEs on the season.
Sam LaPorta (vs. SEA). LaPorta is one of several big-name TEs who’s been a major disappointment so far this season. On top of that, he left last week’s game with an ankle sprain. So, what is he doing in the Rides section? Well, it was a low-ankle sprain and I think he’ll play through it, and I also think the Lions know they need to get LaPorta going, to take pressure off Jared Goff, who is struggling mightily. The Seahawks have been a tough opponent for WRs but less so for TEs. They’ve also faced the murders’ row of Bo Nix, Jacoby Brissett, and Skylar Thomposn, so I have no idea how good their defense actually is. LaPorta is ranked outside the Top-10 this week, largely due to the ankle. If he plays, plug him in as you normally would.
Dallas Goedert (@TB). This is a case of attrition, and we saw how that worked out last week. A.J. Brown and Devonta Smith are both very iffy for this week, and it will be all-hands-on- deck for the Eagles. Goedert has the best hands of the rest, and while I don’t expect a repeat of last week, he could easily lead the team in targets and catches this week. The Bucs have been a very tough matchup for TEs, but I don’t think Philly will have much of a choice.
Kyle Pitts (vs. NO). Did you see Dallas Goedert’s stat line against the Saints last week? Expect the Falcons to keep Pitts pretty involved this week. He narrowly missed a TD on a long reception last week, and is getting enough targets from Kirk Cousins to warrant a weekly start without much thought.
Sleepers:
Pat Freiermuth (@IND). Freiermuth is getting decent target volume, but the Steelers haven’t scored much. They haven’t needed to. The Colts are the worst defense they’ve faced, and Freiermuth has a good chance to put up his best game of the season, so far.
Tyler Conklin (vs. DEN). After back-to-back one catch games to start the season, Conklin was a big part of the offense on Thursday night, with a 5-93-0 line on six targets. I think he’ll see some volume again this week, as the Broncos are tough on opposing WRs but less so against TEs. If you need an injury replacement this week, consider Conklin.
Other TEs ranked outside the Top-12 that I think can be plugged in this week if needed include: Mike Gesicki (@CAR), Zach Ertz (@ARI), and Colby Parkinson (@CHI).
Fades:
Mark Andrews (vs. BUF). Maybe the bounce-back is coming this week, but after last week’s debacle (and the two weeks before that, to be honest), it’s risky to keep rolling out Andrews hoping for a breakout. I’d rather be a week late than take the risk of more complete duds.
Hunter Henry (@SF). Henry was a popular add after a big Week 2 but I wouldn’t consider him this week. The Patriots don’t figure to score much, and the 49ers have completely shut down opposing TEs, to the tune of six catches for 39 yards and zero TDs in three games.
Jonnu Smith (vs. TEN). The Titans have allowed the fewest FPPG to TEs, and Miami doesn’t have a QB. Surely you can find a better choice.
PK and D/ST Streamers (ranked outside the Top-12): See my Week 4 Waiver Wire column.
That’s a wrap. Good luck in Week 4!
***This column appears each Thursday right here at Big Blue View. Each Monday, my Waiver Wire column appears here, and on Fridays you can find my weekly FanDuel Props of the week for the Giants, also right here. ***