With one game remaining in the 2025 Detroit Lions’ season, it’s time to start thinking about the 2026 NFL Draft. The Lions are likely to have more roster holes than they’d like, and in order to maintain a competitive roster for the foreseeable future, general manager Brad Holmes will need to have a strong 2026 draft class.
Entering Week 18, the Lions currently hold the No. 15 overall pick in the draft. However, that pick could theoretically move up or down a significant amount of spots based on the results of the final week of the season.
Let’s take a look at the current 2026 NFL Draft order, and where the Lions can land.
Before we get into it, one important thing to know about draft order. Unlike playoff tiebreakers, the primary tiebreaker for draft order is strength of overall schedule. If there is a tie in overall record, the team with the easier schedule gets the higher draft pick. Things like head-to-head, conference record, common games, etc. only matter if there is a tie in strength of schedule. (Full tiebreaker explainer here)
I’m going to skip over the top-10 in draft order, because that is unreachable for the Lions. If you want to see the top-10 draft order, check out Tankathon here.
2026 NFL Draft order before Week 18
11. Dolphins: 7-9 (.485 strength of schedule)
12. Falcons*: 7-9 (.496)
13. Buccaneers: 7-9 (.533)
14. Cowboys: 7-8-1 (.436)
15. Lions: 8-8 (.491)
16. Ravens: 8-8 (.502)
17. Vikings: 8-8 (.517)
18. Colts**: 8-8 (.537)
19. Panthers: 8-8 (.522)
20. Steelers: 9-7 (.509)
* The Falcons’ pick is owned by the Rams
** The Colts’ pick is owned by the Jets
Even though the Lions can finish with the same or better record than all teams listed here, Detroit cannot fall any lower than 18th in draft order. That’s because the last two teams listed here—Panthers and Steelers—are both in playoff positions. Both could miss the playoffs and be replaced by the Buccaneers and Ravens, but if a team makes the playoffs, their draft order will depend on how far they get into the playoffs. In short, the 18 teams that miss the playoffs will represent the top-18 teams in the NFL Draft order, even if a team in the playoffs finishes with the same or a worse record.
Detroit could fall all the way to that 18th spot, but it feels pretty unlikely. In order for that to happen, the following outcomes would have to occur:
- Lions over Bears
- Steelers over Ravens
- Packers over Vikings
- Texans over Colts
Per the New York Times, that has just a 4% chance of happening. For what it’s worth, the Vikings are favored by 7.5, the Texans are favored by 10.5, the Ravens are favored by 3.5, and the Bears are favored by 3.
As for the 11th pick, that is even more unlikely for the Lions. Here are the following outcomes that would need to happen, with the Vegas odds of each game listed:
- Dolphins (+10.5) over Patriots
- Falcons (-3) over Saints
- Buccaneers (+6.5) over Seahawks
- Cowboys (-3.5) over Giants
- Bears (-3) over Lions
- Strength of schedule would also have to tip in Lions’ favor over Dolphins
The New York Times puts that at <1% chance of happening. In fact, they put the Lions’ chances at earning the 12 seed—with three of the first four above outcomes happening—also at <1% chance of happening.
Instead, they believe the most likely landing spots for the Lions’ first-round pick in the 2026 NFL Draft to be either the 13th pick (23%) or the 14th pick (25%).
Here’s their full breakdown of odds for each pick:
- 11th: <1%
- 12th: <1%
- 13th: 23%
- 14th: 25%
- 15th: 10%
- 16th: 19%
- 17th: 18%
- 18th: 4%
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