The New York Giants 2025 season finally comes to an end this week when the Giants have their long-awaited rematch against the Dallas Cowboys.
The last time these two teams met, Russell Wilson had (arguably) the finest game of his career, quarterbacking an offensive explosion which should have been enough for the Giants to beat their division rivals.
Unfortunately, Shane Bowen’s defense was unable to slow the Cowboys’ offense when it mattered most. They couldn’t get off the field on fourth-and-3 just before the two-minute warning to prevent Dallas from going ahead with 48 seconds remaining, nor could they stop the Cowboys from getting in position to tie the game after Russell Wilson’s go-ahead touchdown with 19 seconds remaining in the game.
It became a familiar patter for the Giants, with an undermanned offense putting the team in position for an upset victory, only for an undisciplined defense to fold in the clutch.
The Giants placed Kayvon Thibodeaux on injured reserve and the defensive secondary has been beat up for most of the season. That, of course, doesn’t bode well against the team that’s fifth in passing touchdowns, fourth in total points scored, second in offensive EPA and first in total yardage.
Can the Giants’ defense match up against the Cowboys’ prolific offense?
What if Charlie Bullen took over sooner?
There has been one significant change for the Giants’ defense since the last time these two teams met: The firing of head coach Brian Daboll — and with him (eventually) defensive coordinator Shane Bowen.
The Giants have suffered from a lack of discipline on the defensive side of the ball all year long, dating back to the preseason. Missed assignments, players out of position, and poor technique have played the defense throughout the season. The result of the sloppiness has been the Giants playing dominant football for stretches, only for the defense to shatter and fail when the margin for error runs out.
When Daboll was fired — and Bowen a couple weeks later — we learned that there was little accountability and discipline demanded of the players. That was most evident in Abdul Carter, who was benched twice by interim head coach Mike Kafka, but also helped to explain why so many players either failed to consistently play up to their potential or regress from previously strong play.
Kafka and new defensive coordinator Charlie Bullen have re-emphasized discipline, accountability, and fundamentals.
There wasn’t much to sho for it initially, with the Giants once again giving up fourth quarter leads to the Green Bay Packers and Detroit Lions. But we also shouldn’t expect poor habits built over a year and a half to be undone by a few practices in the middle of the season.
We mgiht finally be seeing some dividends, and the Giants’ defense has shown remarkable improvement over the last three weeks. It’s a small sample size, but the Giants have been seventh in points allowed and fifth in run defense over that span.
That’s borne out by their efficiency from Week 1 to Week 10, and then over the last three weeks.
Since Week 15, the Giants’ defense has been 5th in overall EPA per play, and have been playing at a very high level.
That matches what we saw on the field as well.
While the Raiders are terrible and also missing their best players, that doesn’t impact the how the Giants defense executed. They played with much greater discipline fidelity to their assignments. That meant players were in position to fill gaps in the run game as well as rally to the ball in space. Spacing and communication in coverage was much improved as well, leading to multiple interceptions.
It’s a enough to make you wonder how good the Giants could have been with better coaching from the start.
The Burns and Carter show
The Giants are not the blitz-happy team they’ve been in the past.
Their overall blitz rate of 22.2% is on the lower side of league average, though their blitz rate is hardly uniform. The Giants tend to save their bltizes for second down. They send extra rushers (usually a five-man pressure) 43.9% of the time on second and medium (third in the NFL) and 39.2% of the time on second and long (second most). Their blitz rates on first down and third down are significantly lower, which could be a real factor in this game.
Dak Prescott is solidly on the NFL’s “Do Not Blitz” list. He is one of the few quarterbacks who plays better against the blitz than when not blitzed.
While an imperfect measure, Prescott’s PFF grade agaisnt the blitz is an 88.4, compared to an 82.8 when not blitzed. He has a higher completion percentage (70.0 to 66.2), more yards per attempt (8.6 to 7.1) when blitzed. He also has just two interceptions when blitzed compared to eight when not blitzed. In other words, Prescott has thrown 10 interceptions overall, with just 20% of them coming when blitzed — 31% of his drop backs.
The flip side of all that is that Prescott is worse when pressured without blitzing. His completion percentage is just barely above 60, and he has a 1:1 touchdown to interception ratio.
The Cowboys’ offense generally does a very good job of providing answers for Prescott, and he’s legitimately excellent at identifying the blitz. He processes quickly, either finding his hot route or replacing the blitzing player with the ball. And given that blitzes weaken coverage in order to send extra pressure, it creates the opportunity fo easy completions or big plays.
That, in turn, puts the onus on Giants’ pass rushers Brian Burns and Abdul Carter.
Burns has been playing at a DPOY level all year long, while Carter has been a disruptive force since his second benching.
The key to containing and disrupting Prescott has to come down to generating pressure without resorting to the blitz. The Giants will obviously need Dexter Lawrence to play like he did against the Raiders, when he looked much more like the “Sexy Dexy” of previous years and less like the player he’s been for most of 2025. But the bulk of the pressure will need to come from the Giants’ star pass rushers.
Few teams can boast the raw athleticism and versatility that Burns and Carter present. And the fact that the Giants can use them to create pressure off the edge to influence blocking schemes as well as up the middle through changing their alignment is a big advantage.
They’ll need to show up to force Prescott to be mediocre, instead of an All-Pro candidate.
Can the secondary hold up?
The flip side of the coin when it comes to generating pressure is playing coverage.
The Giants’ pass coverage has been better than their run defense this year, but that’s not saying much.
As noted above, Giants have had problems with communication and discipline, often leading to coverage breakdowns in big moments. Those have improved significantly in recent weeks and play has (predictably) improved across the board when every player is executing the same play.
The Giants could struggle this game, as their secondary has once again been hit with injuries. Fourth-year cornerback Cor’Dale Flott missed the last game with a knee injury, while safety Tyler Nubin was placed on injured reserve.
Flott has emerged as a legitimate starting corner this year, and has been one of the few defensive players to truly take a step forward and develop this year.
If Flott misses the final game, the Giants will be matching the duo of Paulson Adebo and Deonte Banks against CeeDee Lamb and George Pickens.
The Giants can’t afford to bracket both receivers on every play, as that would create far too many easy opportunities elsewhere. Bullen may opt to ask Adebo to shadow Lamb (and Dru Phillips, as Lamb frequently plays out of the slot), while trusting Banks and one of the safeties to deal with Pickens.
Pickens has been a valuable addition for the Cowboys, thanks to his physicality in contested catch situations. Banks has a rare blend of size and athleticism, and is one of the league’s best at forcing tight window throws. That might make him a bit better suited to covering Pickens, as opposed to Lamb, who is a more dynamic route runner and a natural separator.
Whether the Giants’ secondary can hold up long enough for the pass rush to disrupt the offense could be the difference in this game.
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