5 Giants-Cowboys things to watch: Pass rush might hold key to victory for Giants

The New York Giants have lost six straight and 13 of 14 games to the Dallas Cowboys. Can they change that Thursday night at MetLife Stadium? Here are some of what I see as the keys to victory for the Giants.

Dumping Dak?

The Giants have not sacked a Dallas quarterback since Dec. 19, 2021 — the second time the teams played that year. That’s four games — three with Dak Prescott behind center and one with Cooper Rush replacing an injured Prescott — without a sack by the Giants.

“That’s going to change,” Giants star defensive lineman Dexter Lawrence said flatly this week.

It has to.

The Cowboys don’t run the ball well, 29th in the league in yards per rushing attempt and 30th in rushing yards per game. Who knew that would happen when they downgraded at running back from Tony Pollard to an over-the-hill Ezekiel Elliott?

Dallas depends on Prescott and its passing attack. Through three games, they have the most passing attempts (125) in the NFL, the most passing yards (809), and the most passing yards per game (269.7).

The Giants are tied for second in the league with 14 sacks, and their 27.0% pressure rate is 10th in the league.

Lawrence, Brian Burns and Kayvon Thibodeaux were — and are — expected to do the heavy lifting in terms of pressuring quarterbacks. They have thus far had a lot of help, with sacks from 10 different players, including half-sacks for Thibodeaux and Rakeem Nunez-Roches.

“He’s (Prescott) a special quarterback,” Lawrence said. “We got to do a good job rattling him and getting to him. He has a quick trigger, so we got to do well in the back end covering, making him look at his second option, third option. We got to do well up front getting to him.”

Daniel Jones is good now?

The Giants’ much-maligned quarterback was terrible in Week 1. He has, though, been really good the past two weeks.

Jones is 16th in the league in ESPN’s QBR stat. That is better to this point than Prescott, Patrick Mahomes, Kirk Cousins, Jared Goff, Trevor Lawrence, Baker Mayfield, and several others. Please don’t think I’m saying Jones is better than Mahomes. I’m old, but I haven’t lost my mind. That raw statistic, though, indicates that the quarterback has played well so far. In each of the past two weeks, Jones has had the league’s 10th-best QBR.

In terms of Expected Points Added (EPA) Jones is 14th at 11.5. That is one spot ahead of C.J. Stroud of the Houston Texans.

Of 30 quarterbacks with at least 70 drop backs thus far, Jones’ 1.9% rate of turnover worthy plays is seventh in the league.

The hole in Jones’ game thus far is that he has only one big-time throw, and is only 2 of 9 (22.2%) on throws of 20+ yards past the line of scrimmage. He will have to hit some of those throws eventually.

Having a star wide receiver like Malik Nabers is certainly helping Jones.

“I think I’ll continue to see what the defense is doing and read out the play and throw the ball where it’s supposed to go,” Jones said this week. “So, if that’s Malik, I’ll continue to do that. If it’s other people, then I’ll do that, too. So, I have confidence in all our guys. And Malik’s played well, but we’ve got a lot of good receivers.”

So, too, is having good pass protection. Jones has been sacked eight times in three games, with that amounting to sacks on 7.1% of his drop backs. Last season, Giants’ quarterbacks were sacked a league-worst 85 times, on 14.1% of their drop backs.

“I think they’ve played well. We’ve run the ball well, protected well, it’s a good front we played last week in Cleveland and (Browns defensive end) Myles Garrett, one of the best rushers in the league,” Jones said. “I thought we did a good job for the most part against him. A lot of confidence in those guys and I think they played well.

“It gives you a lot of confidence to be able to see the field and find the open guy, get the ball out of my hands, all those things. Like I said, I have a lot of confidence in those guys.”

League average to slightly above average quarterback play won’t win the Giants a Super Bowl. It should give them a chance on a week-to-week basis.

Jones has given the Giants at least that much the past two weeks. Will it continue Thursday night?

The state of the Cowboys’ pass defense might help. From The Athletic:

The defense’s issues are linked. While the run defense is the headlining sore spot, the pass defense has been leaky, too. The overall numbers through three weeks get rescued by their Week 1 performance against Deshaun Watson, who is quite literally playing like the worst quarterback in the league (aside from Bryce Young, Watson is last in the NFL in QBR, among other stats).

In the last two weeks, against Derek Carr and Lamar Jackson, the Cowboys have allowed an average opposing passer rating of 134.8. Neither quarterback had to throw the ball much, thanks to the Cowboys’ awful run defense. Carr completed 11-of-16 attempts and Jackson completed 12 of 15. Both quarterbacks had signature plays, with Carr completing a 70-yard touchdown early in the game and Jackson completing a game-sealing third-down pass for a first down. The Cowboys are giving up 7.8 yards per attempt, which is seventh-worst in the league.

Dallas has Trevon Diggs at cornerback, and the two-time Pro Bowler and one-time All-Pro will almost certainly shadow Nabers. The Cowboys don’t have All-Pro cornerback DaRon Bland, who led the NFL with nine interceptions last season. He is on IR with a stress fracture in his foot. Rookie cornerback Caelan Carson, starting in Bland’s place, has a shoulder injury and is doubtful.

Photo by Nic Antaya/Getty Images

Running the football

The Dallas defense is tied with the Las Vegas Raiders for last in the league in yards allowed per rushing attempt at 5.4. They have given up the most rushing yards (537) and touchdowns (eight).

The Athletic says:

The run defense being the Cowboys’ biggest issue shouldn’t surprise anybody. This was an issue last season when they got gashed in Buffalo in December and at AT&T Stadium in January against the Green Bay Packers. They did not upgrade the defensive tackle position in the offseason, merely adding a couple of veterans late into training camp.

Still, the ineptitude has been jarring. According to TruMedia, the Cowboys rank last in the NFL in rushing yards allowed per game (185.7) and rushing yards allowed per attempt at 5.4. Their defensive total rush EPA is a whopping minus-17.31. The next worst team is the Los Angeles Rams at minus-6.74. They’ve allowed more rushing touchdowns (eight) than anybody in the league and opponents’ rush attempts result in a first down 35 percent of the time — also the worst in the league. To further the issue of penetration up front, opponents are averaging 2.27 yards per rush before contact.

Can the Giants take advantage? New York is 20th in the league at 4.2 yards per rushing attempt and 19th at 105.0 yards rushing per game.

The Giants, though, have really only been successful in running the ball in one of their three games. In Week 2, Devin Singletary carried 16 times for 95 yards and the Giants has 22 rushes for 129 yards (5.8 yards per carry). Against the Browns, a 43-yard Singletary run in the closing minutes skewed an otherwise poor rushing day that saw New York run 32 times for 112 yards (3.5 yards per carry).

By DVOA (Defense-adjusted Value Over Average) the Giants are -11.4%, 23rd in the league.

The Giants can control this game if they deepen the Cowboys’ issues defending the run. Oh, and if Singletary avoids the fumbling issues that plagued him the past two weeks.

Cornerback issues

The cornerback position was expected to be, and has been, an issue for the Giants so far this season.

Third-round pick Dru Phillips has been excellent so far this season, impressing with his instincts, athleticism, and aggression. He has an 82.3 passer rating against, giving up just 3.8 yards on four completions against.

The rest of the cornerback group has, as was feared entering the season, been found wanting.

Tae Banks, in his second season, has thus far struggled in role as the team’s No. 1 cornerback. He has a passer rating against of 124.6, and has surrendered three touchdowns.

Head coach Brian Daboll defended Banks after he gave up two touchdowns to Amari Cooper in Sunday’s game against the Cleveland Browns.

“He was tight on a lot of coverage. I thought they made some nice plays, some good throw and catches. He was right there on, I’d say, a number of them,” Daboll said. “So, I have a lot of confidence in (Deonte) Banks. Again, sometimes those guys are going to make plays.”

Yes, they are. From this non-scout’s vantage point, Banks’ main difficulty has not been positioning. It has been not finding the football on a few occasions, thus not giving himself a chance to make a play.

Cor’Dale Flott, splitting time at outside and slot cornerback, has a 140.9 passer rating against thru three games. He has given up 10 completions in 11 targets for 11.6 yards per completion and a touchdown.

The Giants are now facing injuries at the position. Phillips and Adoree’ Jackson are both out Thursday due to calf injuries. Isaiah Simmons (105.8 passer rating against, four completions allowed in five targets) has struggled. Nick McCloud missed Weeks 2 and 3 with a knee injury, and will return. How much he can play or how effective he can be we will find out. Tre Hawkins has been inactive for two of the Giants’ three games, and practice squad elevation Art Green played the first 11 defensive snaps of his career.

The cornerback issues make it even more important that the Giants put pressure on Prescott.

Kicking game worries

The players change on an annual basis. This year, the coordinator changed for the first time in many years. Still, the Giants seem to spring leaks on special teams every year.

This year has been no exception.

Placekicking is an issue. Graham Gano’s injury on the first play Week 2 against the Washington Commanders contributed mightily to that loss.

Greg Joseph, Gano’s replacement, did not inspire confidence by missing waaaaaay right on a 48-yard field goal with 3:00 to go against Cleveland that would have put the Giants ahead by two scores. Joseph will remain as the Giants’ kicker for now. That may be partially because making a change on a short week is difficult, and also partially because the Giants have to pay Joseph for two more games after poaching him from the Detroit Lions’ practice squad.

Kickoff return has been an issue. More specifically, Eric Gray has become an issue on kickoff return.

The Giants clearly did not consider Gray a return candidate throughout the spring and summer, when he did not even practice in that capacity. The reason was clear: Gray struggled as a returner in 2023, averaging just 14.5 yards on four kickoff returns, 4.0 yards on seven punt returns, and fumbling three times in those 11 touches.

Injuries, rookie running back Dante Miller being placed on the practice squad, and reticence to use starters like Wan’Dale Robinson or Darius Slayton to return kickoffs led the Giants to turn back to Gray.

There are 15 returners with at least three kickoff returns so far. Eric Gray is 11th with an average of 25.3 yards per return. His fumble on the first play against the Browns showed that there are still ball security issues with him in a return role.

Teams are obviously targeting Gray when they kick off to the Giants. New York has had nine kickoff return opportunities with split returners in this year’s reimagined kickoff. Gray has had eight of those, with Tyrone Tracy getting just one.

Could the Giants use new punt returner Ihmir Smith-Marsette instead of Gray? Or, find someone else?